Frederik Sinaga 12/11/2008

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I wanna know, how we test accuracy result of LEAP MODEL, like energy balanced,etc. how much error of LEAP model. please help me..


Thanks

Hedbien

Charlie Heaps 12/17/2008
 

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Hi there,

Bear in mind that LEAP is for the most part an accounting framework, so that what comes out of it is basically the same as what you put into it. Thus, the issue of model accuracy and errors is not normally relevant to LEAP. Of course the possibility exists for bugs in the software - I try to fix these as soon as possible when they are identified.

Having noted the above, it is also worth noting that the models you can create in LEAP using its expression handling capabilities can be subject to all sorts of errors. For example you could create a model that links energy to GDP in a way that could have huge errors in terms of how well it predicts the future. Thus it is important to validate any of the models you create in LEAP. One way to do that is to run the models in both a historical mode (where you can test its predictive capabilities against known data) and in a future projection mode. Of course another important caveat here is that there is no guarantee that the future will behave like the past!

To summarize, it is important to remember that LEAP is not a model - its is a software tool that you can use to create models (good and bad). In this respect it is very much like a spreadsheet.

I hope this helps!

Charlie

> I wanna know, how we test accuracy result of LEAP MODEL, like energy balanced,etc. how much error of LEAP model. please help me..
>
>
> Thanks
>
> Hedbien