Topic: Demand TreeSubscribe | Previous | Next
Argiro Roinioti 1/28/2011
3909 Views Hello,
I have encountered a problem at the Demand Section. I am trying to simulate the whole Greek Energy System and the only consumption data I have for each sector (Households, Industry etc.) is per fuel. For example,the households sector is divided in electricity, fossil fuels (petroleum and products, coal and products, gas fuels), heat and renewable energy sources (geothermal, biomass, solar). I also found the percentages of each end use in households (lighting, cooking etc.), but I do not know to which fuels each end use is divided. Therefore, I do not know exactly how to structure the Demand Tree.
Could you suggest any solutions?
Thank you in advance.
Sincerely,
Argiro
Tory Clark 1/31/2011
3902 Views Hi Argiro,
A "bottom-up" model, like the example model in Freedonia, is disaggregated into end use devices that consume energy. Being able to create this kind of model requires having detailed data on the energy consumption of each end use, which it sounds like you do not have.
In cases where you have aggregated energy data, a "top-down" approach may be more appropriate. With the data specified above, this kind of model might look something like this:
Demand
- Households
--electricity
--oil
--coal
-Industry
--coal
--petroleum
--natural gas
A final option would be to use a "decoupled" model where a baseline is created based on aggregate data (like in the "top-down" approach), but different mitigation measures are evaluated as subtractions from the baseline. With this type of approach you can focus on examining the savings from various initiatives without having to create a full end-use based model of every sector.
Let me know if you have any additional questions.
Tory
Argiro Roinioti 2/1/2011
3898 Views Dear Tory,
Thank you for your response, your help is valuable to me.
The demand in my Current Accounts will follow the top-down approach, in the form that you suggested. However, I have a segreration for 3 sectors. For example my Industry data consist of energy consumption data for 10 subsectors.Also my Transport and Non energy use sectors have some subsectors. Could I include these subsectors, although other basic sectors in my model, such as Households, Rural sector and Tertiary sectors, do not have any subsectors and have the following form?
Households
--electricity
--oil
--lignite
--natural gas
--biomass
Tertiary sectors
--electricity
--petroleum
--lignite
Thank you in advance.
Argiro
Tory Clark 2/1/2011
3896 Views Hi Argiro,
You can always add more complexity to your tree structure to match the data that you have. The example I provided was just a simple structure. You can certainly have sub sectors in your tree to reflect more detailed data and each of your sectors can be structured differently. Just know that how you structure the tree will change how results are viewed. I suggest you test your proposed structure and ensure that your results include the complexity that you are looking for.
Remember that non-energy data such as agriculture, forestry, solid waste, etc. should be entered in the non-energy sector branch, not the demand branch.
Tory
Argiro Roinioti 2/4/2011
3881 Views Ok, so if I understand correct, the decoupled model is a combination of the top-down and bottom-up model, depending on the available data.
Thank you for all your useful remarks Tory.
Best Regards,
Iro.
Tory Clark 2/4/2011
3879 Views Hi Argiro,
You are correct. The decoupled model is a hybrid approach where the baseline scenario is forecast using top-down methodology and alternative scenarios are modeled as policy measures that reduce energy consumption over time. In LEAP, these are entered as negative “wedges” of consumption, subtracted from baseline energy use in each sector.
The benefit of a decoupled model is that it is less data intensive than end-use approach, but you are still able to capture technology-based policies (unlike top-down approach).
The disadvantage is that it is not a full end-use model, so it does not give insights into how energy system structure might change in the long-run.
Best,
Tory
Tory Clark 3/30/2011
3783 Views To read more and see sample data structures of each of these demand structure approaches (top-down, bottom-up and decoupled), please see the link below.
http://www.energycommunity.org/uploads/Demand_Structure_Methodologies.pdf
Ivane Pirveli 2/7/2014
1832 Views Hi Tory,
Is it possible to use bottom-up approach in household sector and decoupled approach in commercial sector,because no data on commercial sector?
Can you please tell us what will be implications of this type model...
Thanks,
Vano
Taylor Binnington 2/7/2014
1831 Views Hi Vano,
Hope it's okay if I respond for Tory, who has since moved on. Certainly it's okay to use mixed bottom-up/top-down/hybrid demand modeling methodologies in different sectors - typically the choice is dictated by the availability of data.
I actually think that the Demand Methodology link that Tory provided in her most recent post does an excellent job describing the implications of the different approaches. You'll just have to keep in mind that the strengths or limitations of each approach will apply more specifically to each of your sectors, rather than to your model as a whole.
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Ivane Pirveli 2/8/2014