Mohammad Ahanchian 4/18/2011

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Hi,
I use LEAP 2008.0.0.96 to analyze energy demand and emissions from Transportation sector as a part of my Doctoral dissertation and I have some questions. The assumptions are as follows, base year: 2001, end year: 2030, Bottom up analysis, vintage years: 30,

For road transportation as an example, I have the total number of registered vehicles as follows:

2001:103343, 2002:120079, 2003:121363, 2004:226278, 2005:287337, 2006:187694, 2007:211295, 2008:338338, 2009:238651, 2010:280836

As you see there are some fluctuations. I have entered amount of 2001:103343 as stock vehicles and for the sales in current account and BAU I used the differences between each year which means total number of sold vehicles in that certain year such as:

2001,16736, 2002,1284, 2003,104915, 2004,61059, 2005,-99643, 2006,23601, 2007,127043, 2008,-99687, 2009,42185

1. The first problem is that when as I know the total number of vehicles in 2010 and differences as sales, the cumulative stock of vehicles in 2010 in results view, demand, vehicle stock is not equal to actual amount. I think something is wrong with lifecycle profiles; I used Trial And Error Method to achieve the nearest amount but I the most accurate one.

2.Is it possible to evaluate the most accurate vehicle survival and vintage lifecycle profiles with this data? How can I estimate? What other data is needed?

3.Regarding the user variables, I would like to add some more variables and define some formulas and add the results to final energy demand, is it possible? How?
For intense one formula for start-related extra emission is:

excess emission =w*[f(V)+g(T)-1]*h(d)
where:
excess emission for a trip is expressed in g
V is the mean speed in km/h during the cold period
T is the temperature in �C (ambient temperature for cold start, engine start
temperature for starts at an intermediate temperature)
d is the distance travelled
w is the reference excess emission (at 20 �C and 20 km/h)

4.What are the available facilities for rail, air and seaborne transportation?

Thank you in advance.

Tory Clark 4/19/2011
 

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Hi Mohamad,

1,2. I think I should explain how the LEAP transport analysis works. Unlike a typical activity analysts in LEAP where you can enter interpolated values of historical data, a transport stock turnover analysis allows you to set one base year stock of vehicles and extrapolate stock forward as calculated from vehicle sales data and a lifecycle profile describing survival rates as vehicles age.

For more information on the transportation analysis in LEAP, please see the documentation below:

http://tinyurl.com/452n7ds

If you want to use your exact stock data you could choose to do an activity analysis (using number of vehicles as your activity level). This would allow you to use the total number of registered vehicles as you have it in your data but would not allow you to model the life cycle of different vehicles.

3. User variables cannot be reported in results. Indicators, on the other hand, are special branches in the Tree that can be used to calculate additional user-defined results. Please read the documentation on this feature below and see if it is what you are looking for.

http://tinyurl.com/3nxz7gf

4. I'm not clear on what you are asking here. Can you clarify?

Kind Regards,

Tory

Mohammad Ahanchian 4/19/2011
 

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Hi Tory,
Thanks for your help,
1,2. You mean that I need to input the data (stock) for the base year (let’s say 2001), then input only sales of 2002, and for the future years the trend of sold vehicles (from 2001 to 2010) should be entered as survival lifecycle profile in order to be calculated automatically? This one is very important for me…
3. as its written “Not used directly in LEAP's calculations and cannot be referenced by other non-indicator branches.” I deduct that its not possible to interact with internal relations of LEAP.
4. I mean that the transportation methodology in LEAP does not differ for different kind of transportation? Like Air, Rail and Seaborne.

Tory Clark 4/25/2011
 

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Hi Mohamad,

I apologize for the delayed response.

1,2. You enter the base year stock of devices and specify a lifecycle profile describing the age distribution of vehicles within that stock over time. Additionally, you specify the sales of devices in the base year and in future years. You do not need to specify stocks of devices in scenarios because they are calculated internally based on the software's vintaging calculations. I recommend going through exercise 5 of the training materials to see an example of how to use a transport analysis.

www.tinyurl.com/LEAPTrainingMaterials

3. I realize now that I did not fully understand your question. Let me look into this and get back to you. If others have experience with this kind of user variable or indicator usage, please feel free to respond.

4. You are correct. Many of the air, rail and seaborne transportation analyses I have seen have used an activity analysis.

Best,

Tory