Maha Alsabbagh 9/24/2013

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Hi - I want to have 10% of the total electricity generation in 2020 to be produced using the solar power (noting that 100% of the current is produced using fossil fuel). I have some historical data and the developed model covers the period 2010 – 2030. Which function (and formula) shall I use to perform this penetration? Thanks.

Taylor Binnington 9/24/2013
 

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Hi Maha,

There are a few different ways that you would handle this. Before you are able to tackle the problem of electricity generation, though, you must also ensure that sufficient capacity exists, of the appropriate type.

I suspect that the simplest way for you to achieve this will be to specify the solar capacity exogenously (using the Exogenous Capacity tab for your solar electricity generation process). This tab is reserved for specific user-input of different power plants, such as those that have already been built, or those of which you want to maintain full control over the build schedule. As an example, if you wanted X solar capacity installed in 2020, you could write an interpolation function:

Interp(2020,X)

to linearly interpolate from 0 MW of solar to X MW. You will then be able to fix the amount of electricity that is generated by setting the 'First Simulation Year' variable, for solar power only, to the final scenario year (or any year after 2020, if you want LEAP to take over process dispatch after that year). This means that the dispatch of solar power is exogenously specified by the user in the 'Historical Production' tab. This method will give you the most control over the amount of solar capacity and generation in your power system.

If you have optimized your electricity generation module (in answering your question thus far, I have assumed that you are NOT doing this), you may also exploit the 'Renewable Target' variable, described here:

http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Renewable_Target.htm

However, I would recommend that you begin with my first suggestion.

Good luck!

Taylor

Maha Alsabbagh 9/25/2013
 

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Thanks Taylor, but your answer is referring to X amount of renewable not % penetration at specific year. Can you please advise?

Taylor Binnington 9/25/2013
 

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Hi Maha, I realize now that I missed an important part of your earlier question. Sorry about that!

Let me try to clarify. I think there are two different approaches that you could take.

The first approach is related to what I had described earlier. For your solar electricity generation process only, set the First Simulation Year to some year beyond 2020, which means that it's up to you to specify how much power is being generated in each year leading up to this, via the Historical Production tab. You can then write any expression that you want, describing how solar generation transitions from zero to 10% of your electricity supply by 2020. The simplest way to determine this value would be to look at the total electricity demand (under Results view, select Transformation:Outputs with the Electricity Generation module selected) for 2020, before the introduction of a solar process, and take 10%.

The second option is potentially simpler, but I wanted to provide both. Return to the First Simulation Year and set it to the first scenario year (this is probably the year during which all of your other processes start their simulations, too). Change the dispatch rule for solar to 'FullCapacity'. In this second option, the amount of solar generation is controlled indirectly by the amount of installed solar capacity, rather than directly, using the Historical Production option that I outlined above. You'll need to specify exactly as much Exogenous capacity as is required (taking into account Maximum Availability) to generate the desired amount of power. What this means is that you'll need to look at the total generation in 2020 before the introduction of solar power, the same way that I outlined in the paragraph above.

It's important to note that this kind of analysis is quite static - that means that you'll have to adjust the Exogenous solar capacity if you choose to alter your demand.

Hope this helps,

Taylor