Mukesh Gupta 2/20/2014

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Hi ALL,

Could you please suggest me whether my analysis can be performed on LEAP? Please let me know if you need more clarification to answer. Below I provide a brief description of my research:

The overall aim of the research is to estimate the energy and carbon dioxide saving potential and associated cost of slum households in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia through utilization of cost effective technologies in a sustainable growth (efficient) scenario against the reference scenario in 2040. The energy end-uses covered in the analysis are cooking, lighting, space cooling (fan), and appliances (television, refrigerator) pertinent to slum households.

I have collected some of the representative data pertinent to slum households from the two regions. There are about 50 countries from the two regions. So far I have calculated the appliance stock in the base year (2007-2012) using Excel. Now I need to make a projection of appliance stocks until 2040 using econometric analysis (income, electrification and urbanization as drivers affecting the penetration of appliances) as sales data for these countries are usually not available.

My question is twofold: whether LEAP can be used for this analysis, and whether I can set up econometric analysis in the LEAP for projecting the appliance stocks through 2040?

I thank you for considering to answer my question.

Best,
Mukesh

Taylor Binnington 2/20/2014
 

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Hi Mukesh,

Great question! The short answer to both of your questions is yes. LEAP is well-suited to performing comparisons between scenarios, and for making projections of parameters such as income, market penetration of different technologies, etc. However, I'll emphasize that you will only get out what you put in - for example, you will have to specify the exact relationship between urbanization and the penetration of different appliances. Working through some of our online training materials:

http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=42

specifically Exercise 2: Demand, will help you start to think about how to perform your own modeling.

The fact that you have already assembled much of your data in Excel will help you, since LEAP provides some simple facilities for importing data from a spreadsheet. Is your data separated by region, and are you hoping to draw some conclusions about each country in particular? LEAP also allows you to build a multi-regional model, which can be very useful if you intend to make projections for each country individually.

I think you'll find LEAP a very useful and flexible tool for your analysis, but as a first step I would suggest that you learn some of the basics using our training materials.

Good luck,

Taylor

Mukesh Gupta 2/25/2014
 

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Thanks very much Taylor for your useful inputs. I have just started working through the Exercises. Hopefully I’ll get more insights as I finish them. So far LEAP seems to be intuitive.
Yes, I plan to do country specific analysis from these two regions. However there are only few countries in the regions that provide most of the contextual data therefore generalizations will be made so that all countries can be included, even if the estimates for each individual country remain somewhat crude.

I plan to use econometric diffusion model to establish the exact relationship between drivers and the penetration (diffusion) of appliances.

I have already obtained the model parameter values by performing regression analysis in Excel in the base year. Therefore as a next step, I’d like to project the diffusion through 2040 for each year and for each country beginning from 2015. As of now I am unsure of how to use this equation in the Expression Builder of LEAP to make projections for each country individually. But I am sure it’ll be clear to me as I finish the tutorial.

At the same time, do you know if I can access multi-regional, multi country LEAP database (area) from previous studies such as ‘Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: Global Scenarios and Governance Implications' (SEI study) or ‘BUENAS LEAP Version III study of LBNL by McNeil et al’ or other for reference purpose? This may help me to design my multi-country analysis.
I appreciate your valued response.
Best,
Mukesh

Taylor Binnington 2/25/2014
 

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Hi Mukesh,

Unfortunately, the LEAP areas from these studies are not yet public, but should be within a few months.

I don't think I quite understand your question about implementing the diffusion of each appliance. Since you have already estimated the parameters needed (from a regression), you will be able to write the equation which you use to project appliance shares or activity levels directly into LEAP's expressions, referencing appropriate branches as necessary (for example, you may choose to store some model parameters in you Key Assumptions). Can you be more specific about exactly what you're struggling with, when it comes time to translate the equation that governs your model into a LEAP expression?

Best,

Taylor