Ivane Pirveli 2/24/2014

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Hi,

How one can tie GDP projections to the energy demand projections on aggregated level? In the LEAP model I have disagregated and aggregated demand branches,for example:
Households ("yellow folder")
>Heating
>>Electricity
>>gas
Agriculture ("green folder")
>Electricity
>Gas
Is there a way to link directly GDP projection to the Total energy demand and later it will "allocate" the total demand to the branches...
Because now the way I have modeled the demand branch - I guess I have to link each demand branch by elasticity with the GDP (For instance, if GDP growth rate is 6 % for the year of N, than agricultural energy demand is increased by electricity growth rate derived from GDP growth rate (let say 1% GDP increase leads 0.3 % increase in electricity consumption for agricultural purposes) + Gas Growth rate derived from GDP growth rate).

Thanks in Advance,
Vano

Taylor Binnington 2/25/2014
 

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Hi Vano,

Let me make sure I understand exactly what you're asking (and let's stick with your Agriculture branch, for now): you have increasing electricity consumption and increasing gas consumption, and you'd like to know how this will increase your total energy consumption in Agriculture - is that correct?

In that case, I would recommend that you simply use a 'regular' category (a yellow folder) for your Agricultural energy demand instead. The 'green' folder allows you to specify the energy intensity for a branch at the top level of that branch, but permits those same energy requirements to be met using combinations of different fuels, in different fuel shares. You would proceed this way if you wanted to tie the growth in your total energy intensity to growth in GDP, but you're trying to manipulate the growth in the energy intensity of each fuel individually. This is what the 'yellow' category folders allow you to do.

For a bit of context, for demand categories that are represented by green folders, it's perfectly reasonable to force the energy intensity of the whole category along the same trajectory as GDP. You may also choose to use the agricultural component of GDP (the agricultural value-added) as an activity level for this branch, and then the energy intensity would be expressed as an energy per currency (US dollars, for example). This allows you to vary the energy intensity independently of GDP growth - perhaps reflecting increasing efficiency measures - while the total activity continues to grow elastically with GDP. For situations like the one I've described, it's important to ensure that you aren't 'double-counting' the effect of rising GDP, though, by allowing it to impact the growth of both the activity level as well as energy intensity.

Hope this helps you out,

Taylor

Ivane Pirveli 3/1/2014
 

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Hi Taylor,

Thanks for the answer. No, The question is how to model that I can project Total energy demand (Increasing Total energy demand how will increase total energy demand in Agriculture and how it will increase electricity, not vice-versa) that will show than how much is electricity/Gas consumption in Agriculture...

Thanks,
Vano

Taylor Binnington 3/2/2014
 

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1896 Views

Hi Vano,

To project total energy demand (across all sectors), you would need to insert another category folder *above* your existing sector branches. Then the Activity Level at this branch level would influence the total activity of each of the categories nested within it (such as agriculture), and as a result, would influence their respective energy demands.

Best,

Taylor

Ivane Pirveli 3/4/2014
 

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Thank you Taylor, sounds to me as a very useful modeling trick.
Best,
Vano