SULTAN ALSHAAIBI 4/28/2014

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Hi !

In industy sector, I have a list of industries. For each industry I have a list of fuels consumed and their final energy consumption. These are all data I obtained.

With these data, how can I represent the industry sector ?

Thanks

Sultan

Taylor Binnington 4/28/2014
 

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Hello Sultan,

I'm afraid I can't give you a short, direct answer - you need to be more specific about your question, after you've tried inputting your data into LEAP. It sounds like you've gathered the appropriate data though.

If you haven't already done so, please review our basic training materials (especially Section 2.1 and beyond), which will help you think about how to do different kinds of demand modeling:

http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=42

Note that the data you've collected is what we would call 'top-down', which means that you don't know exactly what kinds of devices consumed each type of fuel (only which sectors consumed which fuel). But you can still represent a fuel consumption using LEAP's Technology or Category with Final Energy Intensity, and then enter your historical data under LEAP's Current Accounts.

Good luck,

Taylor

SULTAN ALSHAAIBI 4/28/2014
 

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Hi Taylor,

Thanks for your answer.

In my industry sector; I have about 10 main industries ( Iron and Steel, Cement, Glass, Chemical industry..ect). As for example, in iron and steel industry I have a list of fuels consumed ( coal, LPG, Natural Gas,Heat...ect). For each fuel, I have the final energy consumption in terms of metric tonnes, TOE or GWH.
So basically for each industry I have the type of fuel and its final energy consumption . That's all data I have. I have no data about activity level like industrial production or even economic values. The same thing goes for all other industries.

With these data I have, What would be the way to present the industry sector in LEAP ?

Taylor Binnington 4/29/2014
 

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Hi Sultan,

The idea behind an activity analysis is that it allows you to conceptually separate the number of energy consuming units (which could be 'people', 'numbers of devices', or even 'dollars of sectoral activity', for example) from the amount of energy consumed by each unit - the final energy intensity.

If you have no information at all that you feel could be used as a measure of industrial activity, then you are left with only total energy consumption by fuel, as you say. In LEAP, you could represent these fuel consumptions as red gears (Technologies with Total Energy), but the difficulty that you will encounter is how to accurately project these values in your scenarios. There is little basis for imposing a growth rate on total energy consumption, when you aren't certain what factors affect that energy consumption. It also becomes very difficult to model the impact of any kind of policy (for example, energy efficiency in the industrial sector) without some minimal definition of energy intensity.

I would encourage you to keep looking, even if you can only find total industrial activity (not resolved by subsectors). Remember the introductory data requirement document that I directed you to in this thread:

http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=9&read=2948&fid=22

Best, and keep looking!

Taylor