Topic: Set production scenarioSubscribe | Previous | Next
Catur Kurniadi 6/17/2014
1867 Views Dear LEAP team,
I would like to make two scenarios for fossil fuel production, for instance is crude oil production
First is based on production target plan and second is open for growth of demand and the availability of resources.
How to put these two scenarios in LEAP, while each of this scenario is inheritance each other?
Taylor Binnington 6/18/2014
1865 Views Hi Catur,
I understand your question to be a general question about scenario inheritance in LEAP - is that right? If you had intended to ask how to implement two specific oil production scenarios in LEAP, then I'm afraid you haven't provided enough information about those scenarios for me to help you just yet.
To be clear, two different scenarios in LEAP do not inherit 'from each other' - scenario inheritance is a one-way relationship. Scenarios that are built on top of other scenarios will inherit all of the parent scenario's expressions (which may themselves be inherited from other scenarios) unless an expression is explicitly entered, which overrides that which would have been inherited.
Before I explain further, I think it would be useful for you to look at the following two help pages:
http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Concepts/Understanding_Expression_Inheritance.htm
http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Supporting_Screens/Scenario_Manager.htm
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Catur Kurniadi 6/18/2014
1860 Views Hi Taylor,
Thank you for sharing these useful information.
I am sorry if my question is too general. In term of oil production. I want to analyse effect of three different oil production scenarios towards oil's export and import in the future.
There are three different scenario, first scenario as BaU, in this scenario future oil production is set based on pesimistic oil production plan. In second scenario, its oil production is set based on optimistic oil production plan, and the third scenario its made open.
There is no problem to put oil production plan in first and second scenarios , I make new branch under transformation and put its number in historical production.
Then the problem happened when I want to make third scenario for oil production. I have difficulties to unlock oil production number, because third scenario is based on first scenario i can not delete the number and make it open.
I hope it can give you more information for my problem. I am sorry if it might be too long.
Best,
Catur
Taylor Binnington 6/19/2014
1853 Views Hi Catur,
In your third scenario, when you say that you cannot 'delete the number and make it open' - do you mean that you cannot delete the expression seen in the third scenario, which has been inherited from the first scenario?
I think I understand. When you highlight an expression in LEAP and press 'delete', you reset that expression's value to that of the scenario from which the current scenario inherits. You'll also notice that the expression text turns black in color, indicating that it is inherited from another scenario. In fact, LEAP looks for expressions by following the 'Expression Search Order', working its way through your scenarios until it finds a value (the search order is listed in the bottom right corner of the manage Scenarios window, here: http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Supporting_Screens/Scenario_Manager.htm ).
For your third scenario, if you want a variable to be zero ("0"), then you need to enter zero explicitly into the expression under your third scenario. When you do this, you'll notice the value that you enter is blue in color, indicating that you have entered it explicitly in the currently selected scenario.
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Catur Kurniadi 6/19/2014
1841 Views Hi Taylor,
Sorry if my question is unclear..
What i mean make it open in third scenario is that I want to get oil production number projection come from LEAP's calculation base on oil demand and reserve.
I had put zero in third scenario, but it's give oil production number become zero until end of the projection period.
So how to get "real" oil production number that come directly from LEAP calculation base on oil demand and reserve availability.
Thank,
Catur
Taylor Binnington 6/20/2014
1840 Views Hi Catur,
So, in the first and second scenario, you are controlling oil production using only the Historical Production variable, for all years, but in your third scenario, you want the oil production to be responsive to demand. Is that about right?
For each Transformation process, outputs in LEAP are divided into two phases: the historical period (when output is controlled by the user using Historical Production) and the simulation period (when output is controlled by the process Dispatch Rule). The year that divides these two periods is the 'First Simulation Year':
http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/First_Simulation_Year.htm
In your third scenario, you want to allow LEAP to dispatch oil production to meet the annual oil requirements. This means that you would set your First Simulation Year appropriately, and assign a dispatch rule to your oil production process. Here are a list of dispatch rules:
http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Process_Dispatch_Rules.htm
Oil reserves (specified in the Resources branches of your tree) do not affect process dispatch, but if there are insufficient reserves, LEAP will import the required amount of fuel.
Best,
Taylor
Catur Kurniadi 6/22/2014
1829 Views Hi taylor,
I have changed "First simulation Year" from 2013 to 2026 in third scenario. But why oil production number after 2026 is still not responsice to demand, it's show 2025 oil production number flat until end of period 2050.
Could you please to help me again about this?
Best,
Catur
Taylor Binnington 6/24/2014
1825 Views Hi Catur,
There are a few things that could be happening here. Here are four common things to check for, if you see zero output from your transformation modules (I have assumed that by 'flat' you mean 'zero', but either way these systematic steps will help you narrow down the problem).
1. Ensure that there are indeed requirements on the transformation module. You can check this in Results view by viewing Transformation: Requirements.
2. Make sure there is installed capacity during the years that you don’t see any generation.
3. Check the process Dispatch Rule variable. When you add a process under a transformation module, the dispatch rule defaults to ‘PercentShare’ (you can read about other rules here: http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Process_Dispatch_Rules.htm ). If you dispatch by Process Share, make sure that it is set to something greater than zero.
5. Finally, make sure that you have entered each of your units correctly. It’s easy to select an improper scaling factor, or to specify MWh when you mean GWh when you enter your demand information.
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Catur Kurniadi 6/24/2014
1817 Views Hi Taylor,
Thanks again for your help,
Finally now I can solve my problems,
Regards,
Catur