Topic: transportation analysis indonesiaSubscribe | Previous | Next
Aditya Nasri 9/24/2014
1741 Views Dear all,
Im using leap to find out demand vehicle fuel consumption and emissions produced. For an information, I enter 2010 as the base year and 2040 as the end year with 4 types of vehicles ie passanger car, motorcycle, bus and truck.
I have two scenarios: first business as usual with vehicle sales for every year and increasing every 5 years and second, advance fuel economy on an equal basis with business as usual, but I added that all vehicles over 5% saving in fuel consumption term in 2013 , 2020.2030 and 2040.
I have a several question about my simulation
1. How to determine the amount of lifecycle profile? As the number and percentage of top-down stock . For your information im using 22 for transport like the lifecycle as exercise. Does it relate to the distance between the base year and end year? What should be the range of the interval between the base year and end year plus an extra 2 years? Like an exercise in transport from 2030 to 2010 = 20 years plus an extra 2 years
2. Im already my input of data and get a result, but the bus device stock continued to decline until the end year in the business as usual scenario and the scenario advanced fuel economy. Is this normal? Because of sales of bus each year in less than 1% of existing bus stock, so stock devices continue to decrease in year-end?
3. then I get a result that emissions in advance fuel economy greater than the business as usual scenario, especially the NOx and CO sector. whether it is due to factors vehicles more fuel-efficient future or because of some other things?
im really appreciate your answer, thanks a lot
best regards
Aditya Nasri
Taylor Binnington 9/25/2014
1733 Views Hi Aditya,
1. I understand your question to be that you want to know how to choose the number of vintage years for your transport stock - is that correct? The number of vintage years for your stock, which you set in Basic Params: Stock, is not related to number of years which your scenario spans. It is simply the number of different vintages (different manufacturing years) that you allow your stock to be distributed over at any time. For example, if your number of vintage years is equal to 10, then the stock in the year 2010 may be composed of vehicles of different ages back to the 2000 manufacturing year. In the year 2011, you will not find any stock manufactured prior to the year 2001, and so on.
The choice of the number of years to include is up to you, and depends on the age of the stock. For example, you could try to set this number so that no more than 5% of your existing stock is older than your maximum number of vintage years.
2. Without sufficient sales to replace retired vehicles, your stock will continue to decline. So if your sales are less than 1% of the stock in each year, but more than 1% are retired (to check this, you will need to look at the Survival Profile which you have assigned to buses), you will observe declining stocks.
Have a look at the following help page, which might help to answer some of your questions:
http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Demand/Vintaging_Calculations.htm
3. Unfortunately, I can't provide an answer without more information about the Environmental Loadings which you have assigned to your vehicles in each scenario. Remember, LEAP only counts up the environmental effects which you enter under each fuel, so be sure that you have entered these correctly.
Hope this helps!
Taylor
Aditya Nasri 9/28/2014
1681 Views Hi Mr. Taylor
Thank you for your reply, your answer is very helpful. What I mean is to determine the lifecycle profile such as in the exercise 5 transportation study sub-chapter 5.2 current accounts data that describe the percent share of each vintages that is given in the table. Are we discussing the same thing?
In the example you give, if your number of vintage years is equal to 10, then the stock in the year 2010 may be composed of vehicles of different ages manufacturing back to the year 2000. In the year 2011, you will not find any stock manufactured prior to the year 2001, and so on. Could I ask a few more things?
1. Based on the example you gave, whether the percentage of the vintage year is also applicable in the future? So the percentage distribution of vehicles by age in 2020 same as the percentage distribution of vehicles by age in the year 2010? Or it constantly change depending on sales each year?
2. What criteria are needed to determine the environmental loadings, especially in selecting at TED? For information in my project i was working on, the current emission limits are EURO 2 and the available fuel is gasoline with 88 RON, 92 RON and 95 RON with Sulphur content of 500 ppm, and the diesel with cetane number 48 with 3500ppm Sulphur content and cetane number 51 and Sulphur content of 500 ppm. Do you have suggestions in choosing TED based on the condition that I described earlier?
3. whether the the fuel savings scenarios in the LEAP effect on the air to fuel ratio in internal combustion engines to be larger than 14.7: 1 for a gasoline engine, resulting in emissions of CO and NOx higher. such as a reference that i Include.Because i have an advance fuel economy scenario emission higher than business as usual scenario.
I also uploaded my leap file, hope it can help you to answering my question.thanks
Best regards
Aditya
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Taylor Binnington 10/7/2014
1667 Views Hi Aditya,
1. No, the stock vintage profile is used only to calibrate the ages of the base year stock of vehicles. The distribution of ages in the future stock of vehicles will be controlled by the sales (of new vehicles) and the survival profile (which determines the retirements in each year for each vintage).
2. Actually the TED is designed in a way to allow you to input additional, or different emissions factors for technologies, if you choose. You are not restricted to selecting one of the pre-existing vehicle technology options which are installed by default in LEAP. The TED help page (http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/TED/TED_Intro.htm) describes how to add additional branches to TED, and you could add one which corresponds to EURO 2 standards by inputting the appropriate emission factors for each pollutant regulated by the standard. This would of course assume that vehicles exactly meet, but do not exceed, the targets set by the emissions standard.
3. LEAP does not contain this level of detailed information (fuel/air mixture) for calculating transport emissions. Emissions factors are instead assigned per unit of energy consumed (or per distance traveled), so it's up to you to make changes to these emission factors, which you feel reflect an average fuel/air mixture.
The emissions factors which you have assigned to each vehicle are unchanged across your two scenarios, but the reason that you see increased emissions in your Advanced Fuel Economy scenario is because there is a larger stock of vehicles on the road, when compared to Business as Usual. In part, this comes from different expressions written into the variable Demand\sepeda motor:Sales Share for your two scenarios, which are causing different levels of stock to appear.
Be very sure that the Sales Share variable across neighboring branches adds to 100% in each year. Part of the problem that you see is due to the assignment of percentage shares of car sales that are greater than 100%, which isn't reasonable.
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Aditya Nasri 10/30/2014
1615 Views Hi Mr. Taylor
Thank you for reply and correct the mistakes I made. There are two things I want to ask
After editing data that needs to be corrected, the results of CO and NOx emissions for both the business as usual scenario and the scenario advanced fuel economy have the same value. This is different to CO2 emissions which are higher for the business as usual scenario and lower in the advanced fuel economy scenario.
1. Can you explain why the results of CO and NOx emissions is different than CO2 emissions, what things can affect this environmental loading? Is it influenced by environmental loading method? Where per unit of energy consumed method used for CO2 and per unit of travel method for NOx and CO.
2. what things affect the emission results of CO2 emissions continue to rise from the base year to the end year? While the CO and NOx emissions continue to decline in the end year?
For information, the distance travelled for both scenario is same
Please tell me if there is a mistakes data input. I also uploaded my files leap, hope it can help you to answering my question. Thanks
Best regards
Aditya
upload transport analysis indonesia.leap [6]
Taylor Binnington 10/31/2014
1614 Views Hi Aditya,
1. Yes, the reason you're seeing only a reduction in CO2 emission, but not in other pollutants, is due to the environmental loading calculation method. Under each one of your fuels, the emission factor you've assigned to non-biogenic carbon dioxide is in "Metric tonnes per Terajoule consumed". In your Advanced Fuel Economy scenario, the fuel economy of vehicles improves, which means they consume less energy, and therefore less CO2 is emitted.
However, for all other pollutants, you've assigned an emission factor in "Kilogrammes per vehicle-km traveled". Since the annual mileage for each car does not change in your Advanced Fuel Economy scenario, you will see no change in these emissions.
2. Some emissions decrease while others increase, because the stock of some of your vehicles increases, while the stock of buses declines (you can check this by viewing the result Demand: Device Stocks). Future vehicle stock in each year is controlled by the sales in that year as well as all previous years, and the rate at which old vehicles are retired (refer to our help page on Transport Stock Turnover methods, here www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Demand/Vintaging_Calculations.htm).
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Ange Hartshorne 11/11/2015
789 Views
this is a question that I have on one of the issues that Aditya was looking at last year.
Quote from Taylor's response: "Yes, the reason you're seeing only a reduction in CO2 emission, but not in other pollutants, is due to the environmental loading calculation method. Under each one of your fuels, the emission factor you've assigned to non-biogenic carbon dioxide is in "Metric tonnes per Terajoule consumed". In your Advanced Fuel Economy scenario, the fuel economy of vehicles improves, which means they consume less energy, and therefore less CO2 is emitted.
However, for all other pollutants, you've assigned an emission factor in "Kilogrammes per vehicle-km traveled". Since the annual mileage for each car does not change in your Advanced Fuel Economy scenario, you will see no change in these emissions."
So, if my study is looking at penetration of EVs into the market I would be better to use the "Metric tonnes per Terrajoule consumed" factor also for comparing CO2 emissions across scenarios? Rather than "Kilogrammes per vehicle-km traveled" which I assume could make things look like there is no CO2 emission reduction for vehicles that are EVs rather than ICE vehicles?
But I wanted to relate CO2 to km travelled - but, that would not give a sensible result re CO2 emissions for non-ICE vehicles?
Taylor Binnington 11/13/2015
786 Views Hi Ange,
I don't see why it would matter which unit you choose for the emission factor of electric vehicles. Presumably you would represent EVs and ICEs as different technologies (different branches in your tree, one of which consumes electricity while the other consumes i.e. gasoline). This means you can assign any emission factor you want to either one of them.
Does this help?
Taylor