Remy Florian 11/30/2014

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Hello,

we are a group of students working on the simulation of Bahrain energy balance. We are trying to model Bahrain natural gas and crude oil extraction. To do so we have added 2 "sub-folders" in the Transformation branch, the corresponding technologies, and insert the historical production and capacity based on 2 data sources (pic 1). That gave us maximum availabilities of about 90% for both, which seems correct (pic 2).

However, when we go to the results tad, whe can see a drop in natural gas and oil production (pic 3) at year FirstScenarioYear + 1 (2011 here). Imports and exports have been set up correctly (pic 4).

We were thinking that the problem may come from the demand, but our results match exactly IEA data. As a consequence, our electricity production and oil refining present the same drop.

Have you ever experience the same issue, and do you have any clues about the origin of the problem ?

Thank you in advance,
Florian

EDIT: sorry the figures do not appear in the right order ..

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Taylor Binnington 12/8/2014
 

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Hi Florian and others,

Apologies for the delay in replying. From the screenshots which you provided, I would guess that the problem comes from the Dispatch Rule which you have set for your processes. I see from "pic1.pjg" that the rule is set to 'PercentShare', which means that starting in the First Simulation Year, the process is dispatched to meet the percent share of the module's requirements which is given by the 'Process Share' variable.

One other useful Result view to check is Transformation: Requirements for each of your modules. This tells LEAP what requirements the module is being asked to meet. If these requirements are substantially lower than you expect, I would suggest looking through the units and scaling factors which you have assigned in your demand branches as well as the Historical Production values written into each of your transformation processes.

Hope this helps,

Taylor