Martin Andersson 4/6/2015

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Hi,
We are examine how the Swedish electricity system could be developed, if existing nuclear power would be shut down prematurely, using LEAPs optimization function. The result in LEAP shows that most of the shut downed capacity is replaced by alternative energy sources, however, the most likely result would be that exports are reduced. Can you somehow manage exports in LEAP so it�‚��s reduced dynamical in the optimization?

Best regards
Martin

Taylor Binnington 4/14/2015
 

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Hi Martin,

Sorry for the delay. My suggestion will depend on how you're modeling exports. Can you tell me how exports arise in your model in the first place? For example - do you treat exports as a separate demand? Or do you assign an Export Target to the output fuel of your electricity generation module? Or is there another strategy that you use?

A few general comments on the optimization features in LEAP. The algorithm will find the least-cost (net present value of all capacity expansion and dispatch) supply mix *only within the optimized transformation module*. So unless a cost is expressed inside the module, it will not be counted in the optimization.

I'll expand on this point, and try to suggest a strategy for modeling your situation, once you let me know how you're currently modeling exports.

Best,

Taylor

Martin Andersson 4/15/2015
 

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Hi Taylor,
Currently export is treated as a part of the total demand, but we tried to put it as an export target without changed result.

Best regards
Martin

Taylor Binnington 4/15/2015
 

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Hi Martin,

Alright, thank you. Again, LEAP's optimization calculations minimize the cost of a single transformation module only - LEAP does not perform full energy system optimization, matching demand and supply in a least-cost way. Since the module's transformation requirements are always met in a least-cost way, *not* meeting demand is not considered an option. You cannot specify a cost threshold beyond which beyond which the requirements would not be met. In addition, LEAP's demand accounting is done before its transformation calculations, which means that the level of exports is calculated independently of the optimization calculations.

This means that there is not an easy way to model the situation you describe. I've given it quite a bit of thought, and can't come up with a strategy that can be easily implemented without being overly complex. Here are a few thoughts, though.

First, I would suggest that you (exogenously) reduce the level of demand in your 'Export' demand sector, in the manner that you expect following the retirement of nuclear plants. You can use LEAP's expressions to create a reference to the Exogenous Capacity variable of the nuclear plant, so that the level of exports on the demand side is a function of the capacity of the nuclear plant.

Another option that you could experiment with would be to define a new fuel type called "Exported Electricity", which is consumed only by the relevant demand sector. This could be produced by a separate transformation module, or as a separate output fuel from your existing Electricity Generation module. But the basic problem - that the module will attempt to meet module requirements - still remains.

Hope this helps, though apologies if it isn't exactly what you're looking for.

Taylor