Matteo Agostinelli 10/14/2015

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Hi,

I'd like to know what kind of unwanted optimization is occuring in my leap model and how i can fix it. There is huge gap (3 ktoe) between the electricity generation of base year and the one calculated at the first year(OSeMOSYS optimization is set off) and i can't figure out what happens.

Another problem occurs during calculation. Leap gives back an error message due to a mispositioning of the branch "Energy Industry Own Use" but the results are correct. This branch is supposed to be a system loss, such as transformation and distribution, and it is positioned where it needs to be, but it seems to be seen as a production process and this generates the error. How can i fix it?

Best regards,
Matteo

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Attachments:  Egypt 1 bis.leap [8]

Taylor Binnington 10/14/2015
 

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Hi Matteo,

Electricity production for all years before the "First Simulation Year" is determined by the "Historical Production" variable. In your model, this is the year 2012, so that only in 2013 will LEAP begin its own dispatch calculations. In 2013 and beyond, power plants are dispatched to meet the requirements for the module, using the rule you have selected using the "Dispatch Rule" variable. There is no optimization of any kind occurring.

The difference in electricity generation from 2012 to 2013 occurs because of the shape of your electricity load curve. In 2012, you specify the *annual* Historical Production for each process, which LEAP then distributes across time slices assuming the same share among time slices for each power plant. But in 2013, LEAP begins dispatching separately within each time slice, choosing power plants in proportion to their available capacity (<- this is the rule you have selected). During this period, your power plants have no trouble meeting requirements for those time slices with relatively low demand. But for time slices of relatively high demand, there is not enough available capacity to meet requirements: this means some power requirements are not being dispatched during these slices, and this causes imports. As it would happen, the shape of your load curve is such that on an *annual basis*, your plants actually generate less power in 2013 than in 2012.

To help your understanding, here it is highly instructive to experiment with some of the different results generated by LEAP. Focusing on the electricity generation module, view Transformation: Requirements to see what the module is "asked" to produce. These requirements may be satisfied by a mixture of domestic production (Transformation: Outputs by Output Fuel) or imports (Transformation: Imports into Module). These results can be viewed together by looking at Transformation: Module Energy Balance. Viewing Transformation: Average Power Requirements Not Dispatched will show you which time slices are causing imports to arise.

Regarding your second question: the message you see when you calculate results is not an error, but a diagnostic. This means that LEAP has successfully finished calculating, but generates a message indicating that there may be a problem. The diagnostic message you see says that one of the input fuels (Residual Fuel Oil) consumed for electricity generation is produced by a module *above* (Energy Industry Own Use). This means that the losses which are incurred due to own-use are not calculated as a fraction of the input requirements for electricity generation. If this is what you had intended, then you would need to move the own-use module to a location in the tree below your electricity generation module.

It's important to remember that the ordering of transformation modules is important - have a quick review of this help page:

http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Transformation_Calculations.htm

Hope this helps,
Taylor

Matteo Agostinelli 11/5/2015
 

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Thank you Taylor. You've been a great help.

I've another problem managing scenarios. Is there a way to introduce a new technology in a specific year and not when there is a shortage in generation capacity? And how do you suggest to implement a technology that diffuses by time (such as domestic solar pannels)? I'm trying with a key assumption indicator that grows in time but i'd like to know if there is a better solution.

Thanks in advance,
Matteo

Taylor Binnington 11/5/2015
 

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Yes - the "Exogenous Capacity" variable gives you control over which year a new generation process is added.

Regarding the gradual construction of solar (or any other technology), I'd suggest a quick look at this help page, which introduces you to time series functions in LEAP:

http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Expressions/Using_Time_Series_Functions.htm

Hope this helps,

Taylor