Topic: Can LEAP model indigenous technology learning?Subscribe | Previous | Next
Junling Liu 12/27/2015
1 Like 597 Views Hi,
I've been checking this function on LEAP program for a while but I couldn't find any setting related to the technology learning and cost reduction. To make sure, can LEAP do the indigenous technology learning by setting the technology learning rate?
thanks,
Junling
Taylor Binnington 12/28/2015
596 Views Hi Junling,
There is no built-in learning rate that reduces costs in LEAP - instead, it is up to you to write appropriate cost expressions that decline with technology penetration. For example, you may enter an expression into one of LEAP's cost variables (Capital Cost, Demand Cost, etc.) similar to the following meta-expression:
(technology penetration / reference technology penetration) ^ (Ln(1 - learning rate)/Ln(2))
In this expression, the "learning rate" is the fractional reduction in cost for every doubling of technology implementation or penetration. How you choose to define the technology penetration may depend on the circumstances - it may be relative to the Activity Level of a demand branch, or the installed MW of generation capacity, to name two examples.
A simple formalism for learning rates is outlined in Kobos, P.H., Erickson, J.D. and Drennen, T.E. "Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy". Energy Policy 34:1645-1658, 2006. I've included the expression above only to get you started, though it will need to be adapted for your model.
Taylor
Junling Liu 12/29/2015
Junling Liu 1/8/2016
520 Views Hi Taylor,
Thanks again for you explanation regarding the way to set up technology learning method in LEAP above. I tried your cost expressions but it turned out that some power generation technologies have future costs values while some are zero from the first simulation year until the end year of simulation (check from the values of capital cost variable in the result view). However, those technologies with future zero cost do not come with any new capacity addition neither. Do you know what problems might contribute to this?
Many thanks,
Best,
Liu Junling
Taylor Binnington 1/12/2016
519 Views Hi Junling,
I'm not sure I understand. Are you using LEAP's optimization algorithm to build and dispatch your power plants, or have yo specified Endogenous Capacity?
In either case, it's possible to have zero capacity for one or more of your electricity generation technologies, in which case you would have zero capital cost. These cost results are not necessarily equal in value to the capital cost per MW which you specify in Analysis view.
If this isn't helpful, please try to clarify your question.
Taylor
Kamia Handayani 11/3/2017
Dear Taylor,
I have a question regarding technology learning expression in LEAP.
I want to define technology penetration as cumulative installed capacity. The cost of technology will decrease along with the increase of cumulative capacity. As such, the cost of a technology in a specific year will be (among others) defined by the cumulative capacity in the previous year. What is the best way to put the "cumulative capacity of the previous year" in the analysis tab of the "capital cost"?
I tried to put is as "Capacity[MW]", but an error box appeared saying that this expression was used before it had been calculated.
Thanking you in advance for your support.
Regards,
Kamia
Taylor Binnington 11/8/2017
1 Like Sorry for the wait, Kamia.
Try wrapping your expression in LEAP's PrevYearValue() function. Otherwise you are correct that the variable to reference is a result-type variable called "Capacity", which is the total installed capacity in any year (both exogenous capacity, and capacity added endogenously by LEAP).
Hope this helps,
Taylor
Kamia Handayani 11/9/2017
Thank you, Taylor. It works!
Another question:
For instance, my base year is 2015. If a technology is added for the first time let say in the fifth scenario year (2020). The year 2020 then becomes the reference technology penetration. How can I express the capacity value in 2020? What is the syntax for this?
I was looking around but only found BaseYearValue, PrevYearValue, FirstScenarioYearValue.
Regards,
Kamia
Taylor Binnington 11/10/2017
Hi Kamia -
I'm not quite sure what you mean that the technology becomes the reference technology - do you basically mean that you wish to introduce a value in 2020 and beyond, but not in years before that?
Have a look at the Step() function, or more broadly, LEAP's set of time-series functions.
I might be able to offer more help with a more specific question.
Taylor
Kamia Handayani 11/10/2017
Kamia Handayani 11/23/2017
Dear Taylor,
Could you share any papers/reports that based on your knowledge, apply endogenous technological learning in LEAP?
Best,
Kamia