Nnaemeka Emodi 4/10/2016

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Greetings.

Please, I really need help on how to use the LEAP to model the impact of climate change on energy demand and supply. I don't know if this is possible, but I really need some help on how to go about it.

Please help.

Regards.

Taylor Binnington 4/12/2016
 

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Hi Nnaemeka,

Welcome to the forums. LEAP is a flexible tool for building energy models (covering both supply and demand of energy, or only demand, if you wish) using a number of assumptions which you - the modeler - must define. So, if you can represent the key drivers of your energy system in a way that depends on assumptions about the impact of climate change, then you can build these relationships into LEAP using its expressions:

http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Concepts/Expressions.htm

For example, in a scenario in which average temperatures rise you may choose to increase the usage of space cooling in different demand sectors.

To gain an idea of how these relationships can be constructed, I strongly recommend that you work through our online training exercises if you have not already. These can be downloaded here:

http://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=42

Specific questions can then be directed to the forums, here, but you can also search the archive of past questions and answers for those similar to your own.

Hope this is useful,
Taylor

Nnaemeka Emodi 4/12/2016
 

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Hi Talyor,

Thank you very much for your reply. Your suggestion has given me an idea oh how to go about modeling the demand side. Please, about the supply-side, is there a way I can also model the impact of climate change directly, without influence from the supply side? For example, the variation of future wind speed on wind turbines, water level or run-offs on hydropower and water temperature changes on thermal power plants?

Taylor Binnington 4/15/2016
 

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Hi Nnaemeka,

Though I'm not quite sure what you mean by "without influence from the supply side", but you can certainly develop scenarios in which, for example, the "Maximum Availability" variable of your power plants is modified, reflecting seasonal variation in the availability of the resource:

http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Maxiumum_Capacity_Factor.htm

Note that this variable can be time-sliced, using the TimeSliceValue function:

http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Expressions/TimeSliceValue.htm

There are many other variables which one could envision would change under various climate change scenarios (i.e. the system load curve, the efficiencies of power plants, etc).

Hope this helps,
Taylor