Jessica Rolindrawan 6/29/2016

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Hi,

I would like to ask whether it is possible for LEAP to calculate the annual emission constraint of a scenario based on other scenario. For instance, I have two scenarios (BAU and Mitigation scenario). The Mitigation scenario will have 30% of carbon emission reduction compared to BAU scenario by 2030. If it is possible for LEAP to do it, may I know the expression that need to be inserted in LEAP (or any reference related to this matter)?

Thank you very much!

Taylor Binnington 7/5/2016
 

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Hi Jessica,

While LEAP is an appropriate tool to construct such a mitigation scenario, it will require additional input from you (the modeler) on where such reductions should come from. There is no built-in capability which enables you to enter a single economy-wide reduction target.

This is often where working with experts or stakeholders can assist you, if you have these resources available to you. You may construct a scenario which sees an improvement in the efficiency of the industrial demand sector, resulting in a 30% total reduction in CO2e emissions relative to business-as-usual. You may also displace a portion of fossil-fuel electricity generation with clean power, which may also be capable of reaching 30% reductions all on its own. Each of these different options achieves the same 30% reduction target, but in different ways. It will be up to you to decide how the target is reached using a combination of options.

In constructing your model, it is possible to leave open "levers" that you may adjust differently in each scenario, and which are used to affect the model at a number of different points. For example, you could create a Key Assumption called "Demand Efficiency", and then create references to that variable in the Final Energy Intensity variables of each demand technology branch as applicable. In this way you create a single variable (your Key Assumption) which affects large pieces of your model.

For examples of simple efficiency measures, and using Key Assumptions to implement these measures, please refer to Section 4.3.3 and Section 5.7.1 of our online training materials:

http://www.energycommunity.org/documents/LEAPTrainingExerciseEnglish2015.pdf

Hope this is useful,
Taylor