• 294 views | 7 messages Discussion: LEAP
    Topic: Output Reliability Assessment in LEAPSubscribe | Previous | Next
  • Tri Ilham Wicaksono 11/7/2016

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    Greetings,

    We know that reliability assessments are important aspects for evaluating adequacy of generation expansion planning. I have learnt that LEAP can also be used for generation expansion planning analysis for certain period of years.
    I have a question.

    How to calculate the output result of reliability indices in LEAP?
    Because I want to set certain reliability constraints (i.e. adequacy of Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)) that has to be satisfied in evaluation of generation expansion planning and I wonder if LEAP can present it in the analysis result seamlessly.

    Thank you so much for anybody who reply and answer my question. I really appreciate it.

    Best Regards,
    Tri Ilham Wicaksono

  • Taylor Binnington 11/8/2016
      Best Response

    1 Like

    Hi Tri Ilham,

    Good question. LEAP does not report instantaneous loss-of-load-probabilities, or average loss-of-load-expectation (LOLE) values for the power system, nor does it allow you to specify a desired LOLE. Instead, users may assign a Planning Reserve Margin (this is related to the LOLE) to their power system, and LEAP will construct new capacity to ensure that this margin is satisfied.

    In brief: each generator is assigned a Capacity Credit (http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Capacity_Value.htm), from which LEAP can calculate the *actual* reserve margin in any year. If this value is less than the Planning Reserve Margin (http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Planning_Reserve_Margin.htm), then new Endogenous Capacity is built (http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Endogenous_Capacity.htm).

    Reading through each of the provided links will help you to understand the calculations more thoroughly.

    Let me know if this helps,
    Taylor

    Note: my reply assumes that you are not using LEAP's optimization capabilities, which are introduced here: http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Optimization/OptimizationIntroduction.htm



  • Tri Ilham Wicaksono 11/9/2016
      Best Response

    Hi. Taylor Binnington

    Thank you so much for answering my question.
    I want to clarify first, that I use LEAP's optimization to calculate my study for generation expansion planning, on how we could reach the least-cost generation in my case.

    This is interesting topic, and I want to ask more questions.

    So my next question, if planning reserve margin does not meet the LOLE adequacy, the sign is there will be "no feasible solution" in the calculation?

    And second question, can we prohibit endogenous capacity to be added in the calculation of reserve margin? Because according to real situation in my case, there will be no generator to be added in calculation period. So if LEAP adds endogenous capacity, the simulation will not depict the real situation.

    Thank you so much.

    Best Regards,
    Tri Ilham Wicaksono



  • Taylor Binnington 11/9/2016
      Best Response

    1 Like

    Hi there,

    Okay, the implementation in LEAP is slightly different if you're using the optimization capability.

    In Analysis view once you enable optimization by entering "Yes" into the module Optimize variable, you will notice that different variables become available to you for each of the module's processes. The "Endogenous Capacity" variable will disappear, but the software may still build new capacity in order to satisfy the Planning Reserve Margin constraint. For example, in the Results view you may still view the result Transformation: Capacity Added, and select the filter "Endogenous" from the drop down menu above the chart - this will show you any capacity which the software has added without explicit instruction from the user - that is, instruction provided using the "Exogenous Capacity" variable.

    I know this can be confusing, so it's useful to remind yourself that endogenous capacity simply means capacity which is determined internally withinin the software: using optimization, this capacity is automatically chosen in a least-cost manner, and when not using optimization, you must provide LEAP with more information using the "Endogenous Capacity" variable.

    If you wish to prevent LEAP from automatically adding any capacity at all, then you may set the "Maximum Capacity Addition" variable to zero for all processes. This will constrain the solution so that no endogenous capacity (meaning any type of capacity which is not entered via the Exogenous Capacity variable) is added.


    However, part of the reason for conducting optimized scenario analysis is to determine the least-cost mixture of capacity (as well as the least-cost dispatch of that capacity). So by forbidding LEAP from adding any capacity in the future, it's quite possible that your actual reserve margin will drop below the target Planning Reserve Margin. Is this what you really want? If you only mean to forbid LEAP from adding capacity in the short-term, but you wish to allow it to add capacity if necessary in the long-term, you could try entering a conditional LEAP expression into the Maximum Capacity Addition variable, like this:

    If(year > 2020, Unlimited, 0)

    This gives LEAP the freedom to build as much capacity as necessary after the year 2020, but disallows any new endogenous capacity additions before that year. Here is a help file on LEAP's "If" statment: http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Expressions/If.htm.

    The message "No primal feasible solution found" means that no solution to the optimization problem exists. This means that you have (perhaps without realizing) assigned constraints for the optimization problem which directly conflict with one another. An example of this would be setting the Maximum Capacity Addition variable to a number less than the Minimum Capacity Addition - these constraints could not both be satisfied, and so no solution can be found.

    Bear in mind that LEAP does not internally calculate a LOLE value. It simply evaluates the actual planning reserve margin in each year (you may view this in Result view, as Transformation: Reserve Margin) and compares this number to the Planning Reserve Margin that you set as a constraint. If the actual reserve margin is too low, LEAP will add new capacity if it can.

    Hope this helps,
    Taylor

  • Tri Ilham Wicaksono 11/10/2016
      Best Response

    Greetings, Taylor Binnington

    Thank you for answering my question with valuable and comprehensive guidance.

    Now, I know the difference between endogenous capacity in optimization vs without optimization. And I know the meaning of The message "No primal feasible solution found" is.

    The condition that suits with my case from your explanation is this condition : "using optimization, this capacity is automatically chosen in a least-cost manner,".
    So I do not have to write and determine endogenous capacity manually and give it in least-cost optimization.

    Subsequently, I mean that I prevent some of type of power plant to be prohibited, so not all of the technologies to be prohibited. And from your explanation, I can set this condition with set the "Maximum Capacity Addition" variable to zero for specific power plant.
    And from your explanation, I just recently know that in LEAP, we can also set conditional expression.

    Related to that, I have next questions :
    1. How do we know that our calculation in actual reserve margin drop below the target Planning Reserve Margin? Because if the actual reserve margin below the target, that's the sign of power plants' reliability is not satisfied. Is there will be window pop up and show to us that "the planning reserve margin is not satisfied" or another else?

    2. How do we input the Force Outage Ratio (FOR) of every power plants in LEAP simulation? Because FOR indices are important to depict power plant shutdown if generator is unavailable.

    3. Similiar to question 2, How do we input heat rate (BTU/kWh) for every power plant to exhibit real electrical generation system?

    Thank you, it is such a great topic to be discussed.

    Best Regards,
    Tri Ilham Wicaksono

  • Taylor Binnington 11/14/2016
      Best Response

    1 Like

    Hi Tri Ilham,

    Glad I could help! Here are the answers to your questions:

    1. In LEAP's Results view, view Transformation: Reserve Margin, with All Years displayed on the x-axis. If you allow LEAP to add capacity to meet its Planning Reserve Margin, then you will not actually see Reserve Margin drop below this threshold - instead, it will approach the threshold, but then a new plant addition should be triggered and the margin will increase.
    2. Each process in a transformation module in LEAP can be assigned a "Maximum Availability" (http://www.energycommunity.org/WebHelpPro/Transformation/Maxiumum_Capacity_Factor.htm). This tells you the average fraction of capacity which is available to generate power during the year. Note as well that this variable may be time-sliced (using the same time-slices which you have already defined in your model), so that you may assign different availability values in different time slices rather than a single annual average.
    3. Each process may be assigned either a heat rate, an efficiency, or a (energy) loss value. You may choose which type of data you want to enter by right-clicking on your electricity generation module (at the top branch for the module) and selecting "Properties". The setting is shown at the bottom of the window. By default, each process can be assigned a value to its "Process Efficiency" (a number between 0 and 100) instead of a "Heat Rate" (a number greater than 3412 BTU/kWh).
    Hope this is useful,
    Taylor


  • Tri Ilham Wicaksono 11/14/2016
      Best Response

    Hi Taylor Binnington

    Thank you so much (again!) for answering my questions.
    Now, I have known how the answer for all of 3 questions.
    It worked as you have recommended.
    Regards,

    Tri Ilham Wicaksono