I am working on developing a LEAP model for India and I am experiencing a strange trend with regard to Crude Oil. The production tapers to zero (after 10-12 years) while imports continue to grow in line with a growing demand. This pattern confuses me as I have a sustained growth in Oil Extraction and Refining (defined in Transformation) as well as an addition to base reserves each year. A possible factor might be that I have defined Resource Imports as well. I have done a similar arrangement for Coal and Natural Gas but the production remains on par with washing/extracting capacity.

Does LEAP cut down production and switch to imports after a certain import:production ratio?

Could you please clarify how LEAP calculated "Production" as shown in the Energy Balance?

Any help on this would be most appreciated. I can explain further over email if preferred.

Best,

Bala

There could be a few different reasons for this, and I can't know for sure without seeing your model.

If you have entered both Additions to Reserve as well as Resource Imports for Crude Oil under the Resources\Primary branches, is it possible that the imports you specify are sufficient to meet your requirements (check the result Resources:Primary Requirements)? LEAP will use user-specified imports first (before domestic resources) to satisfy resource requirements, so it's possible that your Additions to Reserves are simply increasing the size of reserves from one year to the next. You can view this using the result Resources:Reserves. There is no threshold production:import ratio.

In the Energy Balance view, "Production" is domestic/indigenous production of the resource, while "Imports" covers all imported fuel (whether imported directly into the Resources branches, using the method you have used, or imported somewhere under the Transformation branches).

Hope this helps,

Taylor