Topic: No New Endogenous Capacity AddedSubscribe | Previous | Next
Ravita Prasad 7/30/2017
Hello
I am trying to model the electricity demand and supply for a location. I have input demand as all electricity, set up transmission and distribution losses, and have a number of electricity generation process with exogenous capacity that are already present at the location. My base year is 2015 and end year is 2040. In one of my scenarios, I retire the diesel power plant in 2020 and in place I would like renewable electricity generation. For Endogenous capacity, I have several options such as PV, hydro, biomass power plant, and geothermal. When I run leap, I notice that after 2020, the output by fuel by diesel generator significantly decreases as expected now that the diesel generator has retired. However, I expected more capacity to be added from the endogenous capacity that were set but these endogenous processes are not being shown in the outputs by output fuel results. Instead in the results to cater for demand increase in future years, electricity is imported. Why are endogenous capacity which are put in current account and then input in scenario not being picked up during simulation. What am I doing wrong?
Appreciate your help.
Regards
Ravita
Emily Ghosh 8/17/2017
Hi Ravita,
I'm really sorry for the delay in responding.
To determine if endogenous capacity is being added, rather than checking the Output by Output Fuels results, open the results category called "Transformation: Capacity Added". Then select "Endogenous Capacity" from the drop down menu called "All Capacities" to view this type of capacity addition.
LEAP adds exogenous capacity before adding endogenous capacity, so it may be possible that exogenous capacity additions are meeting capacity needs, which is why endogenous capacity isn't being added. When exogenous capacity additions are not occurring, or are insufficient, endogenous capacity additions occur.
Based on your description, it appears that you have entered the data correctly (review the help page on endogenous capacity here if you are unsure), therefore I do not think the problem is capacity-related. It is possible that the processes aren't generating enough electricity, causing electricity to be imported. I recommend checking the dispatch rules of all of your processes to ensure they are appropriately defined. Also check other process variables, including process efficiency and availability.
Hopefully this helps, but please let me know if you have any other questions.
Thanks,
Emily
Ravita Prasad 8/20/2017
Hi Emily
I had this sorted out. As you mentioned it was a case that exogenous capacity was able to meet the demand increase.
Thank you for your help.
Regars
Ravita
Arwa Jaradat 2/17/2018
Hi How are you?
Actually I am trying to use the endogenous capacity option to specify generation expansions in my scenarios that extend to 2050.
the problem is that I cant be sure about my results. I am following a trial and error approach to to raise the output to the demand requirements. Is there a method where I can lead the capacities added to a specific shares that I manage without using the optimization method?
I have many Scenarios that I want to compare but I cant be sure if my approach for expansion is systematic so I can conduct a fair comparisons
regards
Arwa T. Jaradat
Taylor Binnington 2/23/2018
Hello Arwa -
Using the Endogenous Capacity variable, it is possible to ensure that capacity is added in appropriate ratios so that the total capacity shares are fixed. Is this your question?
Please include a careful description of what you've tried, and the goal you're trying to acheive, by starting a new discussion thread.
Best,
Taylor
Arwa Jaradat 4/16/2018
Hi
Thanks for replaying. I will try to be more specific. I am trying to plan a baseline scenario and mitigation scenarios for electricity sector that extend to 2050. Accordingly, I am using the endogenous capacity approach. I manage to have the predicted demand from previous research so the I already have the requirement energy and the peak power for every year starting from 2017 to 2050. By Adding endogenous capacity I have 2 main problem:
1- Output not match with the requirements no matter how many capacity I added
2- how can I tell leap to produce electricity in specific shares ( NG , Renewable, etc) without trial and repeat.
regards
Arwa Jaradat
Emily Ghosh 4/16/2018
Hi Arwa,
1 - In addition to Endogenous Capacity, check that you have correctly specified Maximum Availability, Process Efficiency and Capacity Credit as these variables also affect how each process generates energy.
2 - If you would like to produce electricity in specific shares, change the Dispatch Rule variable to "PercentShare". You will then see a new variable called "Process Share" where you can enter shares. For more information on the different Dispatch Rules refer to the following help page: https://www.energycommunity.org/Help/Transformation/Process_Dispatch_Rules.htm
If you are still having issues, I suggest sending us more information on what you are seeing, such as screenshots of the Energy Balance View and the following results: "Capacity", "Capacity Added", and "Outputs by Output Fuel".
Thanks,
Emily
Emily
Arwa Jaradat 4/16/2018
Hi again
Thanks for the quick response. please note these:
1- I think percent share could work if I used processes as general primary resources not as power Plants.
2- When I enter capacity credit I got large capacities for the module ( I need 12000MW but I get 24000MW).
3- I choose Heat rate for the module properties not efficiencies.
4- When should I stop adding capacity? is it when I get the maximum output possible or I should meet the requirement? ex. when adding much renewable you get less output but much capacities, right?
Regards
Arwa Jaradat
Arwa Jaradat 4/16/2018
Hi again
I attached a file for more details
regards
Arwa Jaradat
endogenouse problem.pdf [6]
Emily Ghosh 4/20/2018
Hi Arwa,
Thanks for the additional information. Note that the Capacity Credit represents the fraction of a plant's installed capacity that is considered "reliable" compared to other plants in the power system. In LEAP, the Capacity Credit is only used for determining how much endogenous capacity is added, as described in the endogenous capacity calculations (read more on how endogenous capacity is added through this link:
https://www.energycommunity.org/Help/Transformation/Endogenous_Capacityu_Expansion_Calculations.htm)
For example, if 100 MW of new capacity is needed to meet reserve margin requirements, and the capacity credit for a plant is 20%, then LEAP will add 500 MW of capacity endogenously (100/20% = 500). If the capacity credit is 100%, LEAP will only add 100 MW. Wind plants may have a lower capacity credit than a coal plant because more capacity is needed to produce the same level of output.
If the capacity credit is higher than the maximum availability, then it is possible that LEAP is not adding enough capacity to meet required demands (because as shown in the example above, a high capacity credit means less capacity is added). Therefore, you may want to set the capacity credit to be equal to or lower than the maximum availability. Expanding on the example above, say the required demand is 800,000 MWH, then here are three potential situations:
Capacity credit = 100%, Maximum Availability = 80%
100 MW * 80% * 8760 hrs = 700,800 MWH (demand not met!)
Capacity credit = 80%, Maximum Availability = 80%
125 MW * 80% * 8760hrs = 876,000 MWH (demand met!)
Capacity credit = 20%, Maximum Availability = 30%
500 MW * 30% * 8760hrs = 1,314,000 MWH (demand met!)
In the cases that the capacity credit was equal or lower than maximum availability, demand was met. Take a look through your capacity credit and maximum availability variables, and hopefully this will fix the problem.
Thanks!
Emily
Arwa Jaradat 4/21/2018
Hi
Thanks a lot for replaying and thanks for the good explanation. I checked Maximum availability and Credit capacity for my module and tried to make them equal or the other option to make the capacity credit less than the Max. availability but that didn't change the output and still didn't met the requirement plus I get a very large number of capacities for each scenario. What other error sources could be?
regards
Arwa Jaradat
Emily Ghosh 4/23/2018
Hi Arwa,
It is not immediately clear why this is happening. Do you mind sending a copy of your .LEAP file so that I could take a look? You can create a .LEAP file through Area --> Backup, and email it to leap@sei.org.
Thanks,
Emily
Arwa Jaradat 4/25/2018
Hi
Thanks a lot for your concern I finally managed to solve the problem I figured out that the problem was in the load duration curve. But I have another problem.
How can I express storage battery in my module ?
I mean if I add it as a process what fuel feedstock should I use ? and how it should appear when I want to see the result (output by feedstock fuel)?
Best regards,
Arwa Jaradat
Emily Ghosh 4/30/2018
Hi Arwa,
Glad you were able to solve the problem. I am curious, how did you modify the load duration curve to fix the issue?
As for your question, I'm afraid that there isn't an easy way to model storage processes in LEAP, but it is a feature that our team is actively working on adding this year. In the meantime, there are a few workarounds that could be used as described in the following thread: https://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=9&fid=22&TID=169
Hope this helps!
Emily
Arwa Jaradat 5/11/2018
Hi again
If I create many scenarios based on the baseline scenario for example and if all the variables are the same then all the scenarios will produce the same output of energy but with different capacities and different feedstock shares , right ? I am not sure about my results.
How can I be sure?
Best regards
Arwa Jaradat
Emily Ghosh 5/11/2018
Hi Arwa,
If all of the scenarios have the same expressions as the baseline scenario, then the results will be identical to the baseline scenario. This includes both the process outputs and capacities.
The expressions in a scenario need to be modified in order to produce different results. For example, if you want the Nuclear Alternative scenario to have more nuclear capacity compared to the Baseline scenario, you will need to modify the expressions in the Exogenous Capacity or the Endogenous Capacity variables in the Nuclear Alternative scenario.
Also, the screenshot you provided shows the "Outputs by Outputs Fuel" result which is the amount of energy generated by the transformation processes. This result will be same for all of the scenarios if the energy generation requirements are the same (in other words, if the energy demands in each scenario are the same as the Baseline scenario). If you are interested in viewing the capacity in each scenario, you will need to switch to the "Capacity" or "Capacity Added" results.
For more information on creating scenarios, refer to the following help page: https://www.energycommunity.org/Help/Concepts/Scenarios.htm
I also recommend reviewing the tutorial videos on creating scenarios and viewing results: https://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=videos
Hope this helps!
Emily
Arwa Jaradat 5/12/2018
Hallo again
Thanks a lot for the explanations, you were more than useful.
I have one more question " there is no way in leap to add renewable profile (hourly production) in my country and have much detailed information about hourly future energy production, so we can figure out when we will have excess energy and when there will be a shortage" is that right ?
Best regards
Arwa Jaradat
Emily Ghosh 5/14/2018
Hi Arwa,
I am glad my answers were helpful to you!
As for your question, you can specify a Yearly Shape in the Maximum Availability variable for each renewable energy process to show how the availability of renewable energy resources changes in each time slice. When you create the Yearly Shape, be sure to use "Availability Shape" as the Shape Type.
Also, we generally don't recommend using hourly time slices as this will significantly slow down LEAP's calculations. The number of time slices you should will depend on how much detail you need to capture. Take a look through this thread for more advice on specifying time slices: https://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=9&tid=3823&fid=22
Thanks!
Emily
Emily