Topic: State or Regional Analysis in LEAP and SensitivitySubscribe | Previous | Next
Greetings.
Please, how can the LEAP model be used for regional or state analysis? The country I intend modeling has states which have independent control of their energy markets and resources but are within one country. I will like to model the Resources branch (e.g. crude oil) as a country, but model the Transformation branch (e.g. transmission and distribution, electricity generation) as individual states within a country containing the Resources. Are there any means in which the analysis can be done?
Also, how can I carry out a sensitivity analysis using LEAP model?
My Regards
Nnaemeka Emodi
2 Likes Hi Nnaemeka,
Thank you very much, Emily. How about the sub-national analysis? can the natural resources such as crude oil be allocated at the national level instead of states as described in the multi-region analysis?
My Regards
Nnaemeka Emodi
2 Likes
**This post has been edited for clarity. Clarifications are underlined.**
Hi Nnaemeka,
One way to deal with the national resource data is to allocate it to each of the states. For example, if there are 1000 barrels of crude oil reserves in the country, you could allocate 40% to State #1 by inputting 400 barrels the Base Year Reserve variable for this region and 60% to State #2 by inputting 600 barrels in this region. Doing this would require you to do some research on where the resources are located in the country, or you would have to make assumptions.
Another way to model the national data is to create another region representing the country. In this case, one region in the model would represent the country, and the other regions would represent the various states.
In the country region, you will need to add demand branches for each fuel resource (either technology branch should do) in order to populate the resource branches. These demand branches do not need to have any demands assigned to them since all of the demands will be specified for each state. Transformation modules are also not required. You can hide unused branches by going to Tree > Select Visible Branches.. Then, input the national resource data in the resource variables. Then, you will have to ensure the In-Area Export Fractions variable is specified in a way that the national resources are "exported" to the states, and adjust the In-Area Import Fractions so that the states can "import" the national resources. To do this:
In the country region:
- Set the In-Area Export Fraction to the % of national resources that you would like to distribute to the other regions on an annual basis. Specify 100% if all of the national resources are available for distribution. You could use a time-series function (i.e. the Interp function) if you want the fraction to change year to year.
- Set the In-Area Import Fraction to 0% if you are assuming that resources will not be "imported" from the states to the national level.
In each region representing each state:
- Set the In-Area Export Fraction to 0% if you are assuming that resources will not be "exported" from the state to the national level.
- Set the In-Area Import Fraction to the % of national resources that will be "imported" from the country region to the state. If there are imports into the state from outside the country, this value will be less than 100%.
Once all of the parameters are inputted and the results are calculated, use the Energy Balance view to see where the imports are coming from.
Hopefully this helps get you started!
Thanks,
Emily
Thank you very much, Emily. One more question, how do I perform sensitivity analysis in the LEAP model? I think there was an update which included sensitivity analysis but I can't find them in the LEAP model. Please, can you advise me on how to go about it?
My Regards
Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi
1 Like
Dear Emily,
Greetings. In regards to the suggestion you gave where I have to develop another region as the country and allowing the export as a priority, I wanted to ask, what happens when refining capacity of the state is unable to meet the regional demand? How do I model the national region to input resources from overseas?
Best Regards
Dear Nnaemeka,
The "Unmet Requirements" variable allows you to choose what happens when the demand for a resource exceeds the available resource. By default, "MeetWithImports" is selected which means that LEAP automatically imports from outside the region to meet resource demands. Other options can be seen by clicking the orange "E" button at the end of the Expression box.
You can also specify the quantity of overseas imports in the "Resource Imports" variable if the amount of imports is known. https://www.energycommunity.org/Help/Resources/Resource_Imports.htm
Hope this helps,
Emily
Dear Emily,
Greetings. I have added the demand branch in the country region with the national resources, but when I try to run the results, I keep getting an error message "Shares sum to 0%, when using shares, the sum of all immediately neighboring branches must be 100%.....". When I decided to hide the demand branch in the national region, I get another error message "No demand results calculated."
Please, how can I resolve this issue?
Best Regards
Nnaemeka
1 Like Hi Nnaemeka,
Emily