Topic: Need Suggestion on Electricity Demand Economical ModelSubscribe | Previous | Next
Wajahat Shabbir 3/20/2019
I have been working on LEAP for Pakistan's Electricity Demand Forecasting for 1 year on National wide and now I want to work further to the economic impact of Pakistan's Electricity Demand.
My research work is "An Economic Study of Pakistan's Electricity Demand"
So Need Suggestion for this study that which scenario and factors will be useful and how LEAP will give appropriate results
Ivane Pirveli 3/21/2019
1 Like Hi Wajahat,
I have been involved in modeling Electricity Demand for Georgia and had chance to work with senior researchers including LEAP experts.
My first suggestion would be that you define clear research objective. From your message I was struggling to understand whether you want to analyze:
1. Economic Drivers of Electricity Demand (for example, GDP growth, household disposable income changes, the structural development of economy (since energy intensive industry consumption differs let say from commercial sector demand), elasticity of electricity to GDP, etc...
or 2. Referring to your sentence formulation: "work further to the economic impact of Pakistan's Electricity Demand." I am reading it as a what is "the impact of electricity consumption on economy of Pakistan". Which is the different research question than the first one.
Therefore I would suggest you to clearly define research objective.
Generally Speaking, LEAP has Great feature for demand analysis. You can use both Bottom-Up and Top Down Approach. For Example for the country like Georgia, where energy statistics are available but not as precise and detailed as in OECD countries, LEAP is flexible enough to adjust the model with data limitations. For Example, Electricity Demand Forecasting for Georgia was based on different customer groups and different level of details about electricity consumption characteristics.
You can combine Bottom-up approach (for example use bottom up approach of electricity demand for modeling residential energy demand if you have energy end-use data , or you can use top-down approach for example linking commercial sector demand to foretasted GDP growth).
If you have in hands economic development Strategy with sufficient details of structural changes in the economy, for example boosting tourism sector or energy intensive industry will have different result on overall electricity demand for the country.
Hope this provides ground fro initial thoughts.
I am eager to provide with more details once you specify what exactly you want to examine.
Wajahat Shabbir 3/26/2019
