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Diane Marie Deocampo 5/24/2019
Good day!
I would like to know if there is any way that I can obtain the IBC when using the Transport Analysis? According to one of your training guides, when using Transport Analysis there are only one or a few parameters to check. However, I would like to obtain the IBC to get the Climate Impact, particularly the Global Temperature Change.
Your response would be appreciated. Thank you
Chris Malley 6/5/2019
Hi Diane,
Thank you for your question.
To 'turn on' the IBC module in your analysis then you can do this by checking the 'IBC' box under the Basic Parameters menu.
The IBC module converts emissions to concentrations of PM2.5, associated health impacts and the impact on climate. To make these conversions requires additional input data, which is stored under the Key Assumptions branch. It also requires that there is a structure in LEAP to store the results from the IBC calculations, and this is stored under the 'Indicator' branch (and therefore 'Indicators' also needs to be checked under the basic parameters menu). The IBC module will not work without a specific structure under Key Assumptions and Indicators that ensures the correct input and output variables are included in the dataset. You can view the required branches in the 'Asiana' dataset that is distributed with the LEAP software, and can import these branches into your data using the copy and paste function.
Importing these branches will allow the IBC module to run. However, this does not mean that it will produce accurate results when it does run. If your model just includes the transport sector, then it will not correctly estimate the PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts using IBC. To use IBC there are some requirements for the LEAP dataset that it is used with, to ensure that the PM2.5 concentration that is produced is accurate. These requirements are:
1. Currently the base year for the analysis has to be 2010. This is because the PM2.5 concentration produced by IBC is linked to a satellite-based PM2.5 concentration estimate, which is currently available only for 2010. We are working to remove this restriction and include more flexibility in the base year that can be used.
2. The LEAP analysis has to be at National scale. The IBC estimates national scale PM2.5 concentrations, so the LEAP dataset also has to be a national analysis. IBC is currently available for 100 countries, and we are working to include all countries.
3. National total emissions need to be calculated for all emission sources in the country for all pollutants that contribute to PM2.5 concentrations. The PM2.5 concentration that a population is exposed to does not just result from direct emissions of PM2.5, but also from emissions of gaseous precursors that are chemically transformed in the atmosphere into particles. The five components of PM2.5 that are included in the IBC module are black carbon, organic carbon, ammonia, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. To accurately estimate PM2.5 concentrations, the LEAP dataset needs to estimate emissions of all of these components from all source sectors.
For the climate impact calculations, with only emissions from the transport sector, you will get an correct estimate of the temperature impact of those transport emissions, but I would advise caution in interpreting those results as without also including all other greenhouse gas, and short-lived climate forcers in your analysis from all sectors, you will not know the contribution of the transport sector to climate impacts compared to all other sectors.
I hope this helps.
Chris
Charles Mulenga 10/5/2019
