• 415 views | 2 messages Discussion: LEAP
    Topic: The electricity generated does not match the electricity demanded Subscribe | Previous | Next
  • Jose Leon 11/21/2019

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    Hello





    I am trying to forecast the Colombian power mix by 2040.

    As input, I am using annual electricity forecasts of Colombia, from 2019 to 2040, so I enter this information as a total energy data (red gear icon). System transmission and distribution losses, planning reserve margin, system energy load shape (for entire system % of annual generation), different generation technologies are also used as inputs. For each generation technology, process efficiency, lifetime, efficiency, historical production, exogenous capacity, merit order, and maximum availability are entered.

    In addition, some generation technologies are partially removed (at some point in the simulation period) and new ones added (I use the endogenous capacity to include new technologies).

    When I run the model, the results are erratic: the energy generated does not match the energy demand. Any suggestions or advice on what should I do in order to solve this problem?

    I attach Images of the results I got and the .leap file.

    Thank you in advance for your assistance in this issue.






    Attachments:  Results - Images.pptx [6] ,  Colombia2040E1.leap [6]
  • Utsavshree Rajbhandari 12/18/2019
      Best Response

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    Hi Jose,

    I had a look into your model. It seems fine to me on cursory look.
    The output from Transformation module is equal to demand, which validates the output after transformations and distribution.
    As for your concern regarding erratic graphs for output from each power plant, there are few things needed to be looked upon.
    • the efficiency of each power plant are different
    • you have endogenously assigned new power plants
    • you have assigned maximum availability for each
    • the power plants retire after specific periods of time
    From my general understanding, the output of power plant before transmission and distribution are determined by these factors making them varying. However after transformation and distribution, all the generated goes through one channel and results the actual requirements as same as demand.