Topic: Confusing Optimization resultSubscribe | Previous | Next
Satria Kanugrahan 2/10/2021
Hello fellow researcher,
Can anybody explain why my optimization result always only adds PV and Oil power plant capacity (and no other powerplant type)?
I ran this optimization scenario multiple times, and the result always favours the PV and Oil power plant.
I already set the renewable qualified for hydro, geothermal, biomass, and PV, while the renewable energy target to be 30%
*I attached my LEAP file below*
Indonesia V.1.1.leap [3]
Utsavshree Rajbhandari 2/12/2021
Dear Satria,
Optimization is a straightforward by definition, but so much complex at execution which is highly dependent on mix of input parameters. Saying so, I looked into your model and have number of thigs to point out
- I am not sure about the system load curve, although this could be your specific case, you have used (Java 1), it is nearly as smooth. although it does not affect much in case of hourly shale load curve to be such, but a good method is the one you have made named Sumatra and Java. They are most likely to happen scenario.
- Your historical production surpasses the capacity in some cases and it is shown in diagnostic message also as well as if you look into actual availability curve in results.
- regarding maximum availability, PV and Wind surely cannot be 100%...it is lesser than hydro, unless there is large utility scale battery banks, which is unlikely in current scenario.
- also in results, you can also see that capacity installed in way higher than actual requirement (even considering 35% reserve margin - which are in range of 80-70% in your model in historical year. Are you giving the total national level capacity for regional analysis??? if yes, it is result of that. this will highly impact your model. you will need to calibrate to your regional requirement.
- capital cost for PV and Wind are not so far apart. will make wind better
- but, the FOM cots for wind is nearly twice as much as PV, which, for large capacity plants, will make choice go for PV. similar is for oil, it has least FOM cost.
- similarly for VOM cost as well, PV has the least cost. as for non renewable, although they are same, oil is cheaper in terms of capital and FOM cost.
Please look into the factors mentioned in dot bullets initially. The optimization is about the cost, but it is highly influenced by technical parameters as well.
Satria Kanugrahan 2/16/2021
Thank you for your explanation Utsav. I have one more question about my model.
In the total capacity result, in 2019 I got 61 MW power capacity (which I input through the current model - exogenous capacity). But in the next year ( 2020 - in the optimization model), suddenly I lost my power capacity (only 4 MW left), what is causing my capacity to decrease significantly? I already try to set the minimum capacity (in optimization model) equal to the 2019 capacity but it didn't work. What did I miss?
