I'm modeling the future emissions of China's power sector under different mitigation scenarios using different advanced low-carbon technologies. I had 2 questions:

1) For the energy demand module, I want to create a very simple model and mostly rely on demand projections in existing studies. So, for a simplistic model, would it be fine if I entered the overall demand for electricity in China?

2) I was wondering where I could find the installed capacities of power-generation technologies and their fixed and variable O&M costs? If anyone has any leads on China, I would appreciate it very much. I have already looked through government websites and official reports.

Thanks in advance!

My best,

Rida Maheen

Hi, Rida -

Yes, for a simple model, it's probably fine to consolidate all demand in one branch, particularly if you're taking demand projections from another study. If you're modeling multiple regions to assess the role of regional grids, you can split demand within that branch by region. For example, you could have regions corresponding to China's 7 major domestic grids.

For installed generation capacity in China, the best source I can suggest is UN ESCAP's Asia Pacific Energy Portal (https://asiapacificenergy.org/). Its geographic resolution is pretty coarse, though.

For fixed, variable, and other power-sector costs, I don't know of a good China-specific source. Some useful sources outside China include the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Annual Technology Baseline (https://atb.nrel.gov/) and the Danish Energy Agency's Technology Data Catalogue (https://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and-models/technology-data).

Thanks,

Hi, Rida -

I would make a manual count based on ESCAP's map my fallback plan as it would take quite a while for a country as large as China. Before resorting to that, try contacting ESCAP to see if the data behind their map can be shared in a more usable format, such as a GIS layer or data table. I believe you can reach the team responsible for the Asia Pacific Energy Portal at escap-energy@un.org.

Thanks for the prompt response and the suggestion, I'll drop them an email and see how it goes. Thank you very much once again, I appreciate it a lot.

Hope you have a great day!

My best,

Rida

Thanks for your help the last time. I have already created my baseline scenario. I have a few other concerns. I'm modeling 2 main scenarios for China's power generation sector (1. NDC scenario, and 2. Carbon-neutral scenario); as for the NDC scenario that is mainly based on China's targets for the power sector, the targets for most of the power sources' installed capacities are not elaborated in official reports. They have set targets for non-fossil power generation though. I understand that for scenario development, LEAP requires capacities to be input exogenously. How do I make do with the amount of limited information that I have from the official reports?

Would appreciate your help on this again. Thanks in advance!