LEAP

254 views | 6 messages Discussion: LEAP
Topic: Optimize increasing exports of electricitySubscribe | Previous | Next

Jessica Gustavsson 10/31/2024

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Hi again,

Is it possible to have an optimized scenario where we increase the renewable generation more than what’s needed for the indigenous demand, to be able to export electricity since there is a lot of renewable potential in the area we are modeling. We want to see how that affects costs and if it would be economically beneficial in the long run, if you understand what we are trying to do. Is it only possible for simulation and not optimization?

Also, what also confuses us is that the production of certain processes decreases after the first simulation year, even though capacity is not retired. Do you know why this happens? Since production decreases so rapidly within just one year, LEAP has to add unreasonable amounts of new renewable capacity, which isn’t realistic. What would be more realistic is to keep the non-renewables while more slowly introducing renewables to meet the constraints that we have set (net-zero emissions in the end year).

In addition, I'm not really sure what happens here:

I get this message:

There might be a bug? I have the latest version installed in both LEAP and NEMO

Also, in one scenario this happens in the second to last year (2039):

I'm really lost of what could have happened here. This does not happen for any other area or scenario. Do you have any idea?

Sorry for alot of questions :)

Thanks in advance,

Jessica

Charlie Heaps 11/6/2024

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Hi Jessica,

A few thoughts:

1. >>Is it possible to have an optimized scenario where we increase the renewable generation more than what’s needed for the indigenous demand, to be able to export electricity since there is a lot of renewable potential in the area we are modeling. We want to see how that affects costs and if it would be economically beneficial in the long run, if you understand what we are trying to do. Is it only possible for simulation and not optimization?

I think that should be possible. Currently you would need to specify additional export demands as extra demand branches. When working in simulation modes, there is a variable called "Export Target" in each Transformation module under each output fuel. However, that variable is not yet supported in optimization calculations. I will try and add that in soon.

2. >>Also, what also confuses us is that the production of certain processes decreases after the first simulation year, even though capacity is not retired. Do you know why this happens? Since production decreases so rapidly within just one year, LEAP has to add unreasonable amounts of new renewable capacity, which isn’t realistic. What would be more realistic is to keep the non-renewables while more slowly introducing renewables to meet the constraints that we have set (net-zero emissions in the end year).

Hard to say exactly what is going on, but this just might be what the optimization calculation thinks is the cheapest overall configuration. It can very often be possible that it is not possible to operate fossil plants even if built because they still have significant variable/fuel costs. If the model is adding unreasonable amounts of renewables you would need to specify constraint variables such as Maximum Capacity or Maximum Capacity Addition for those technologies.

3. If you are seeing messages about "in-area export fraction" that suggests you have the setting "Allow Trade among regions" switched on in the settings: calculations screen. I think it is best to have that switched off if you are modeling energy trade using the optimal transmission modeling features.

Hope this helps!

Charlie

Jessica Gustavsson 11/6/2024

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Thank you Charlie!

About the final question on what happens in the model in 2039, do you have any insight into how that occurs? (As you can see in the chart as well, turbo gas production increases in the first simulation year—this is what I was referring to in my second question. )

/Jessica

Charlie Heaps 11/6/2024

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Not sure about the 2039 question. I have seen optimizations arbitrarily producing more than is required if the variable cost is zero. That's one possibility. Try putting in a really tiny variable cost for solar and see if that makes any difference.

Charlie Heaps 11/6/2024

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P.S. Suggest also looking at the energy generation by time slice in 2039 to see if you can spot anything strange. Also check the Module Requirements report.

Jessica Gustavsson 11/7/2024

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Hi, thanks!

From looking at the energy generation by time slice we can see that solar produces on maximum on many nights, where it should not. This happens only in one region and in one scenario..