Topic: How can population and GDP be linked with transport?Subscribe | Previous | Next
Reposting a recent email question I received from a users along with my answer...
>> How can population growth rates and GDP growth rates be linked
effectively with transport sector scenarios? Is there a specific video tutorial
or guide that I can refer to for a detailed explanation?
Whether and how population and/or GDP growth rates are
linked to growth in particular sectoral analyses is really up to you in
LEAP. You can specify these kinds of factors as variables under the Key
Assumptions branches and then link to them in your demand analysis expressions.
One example of a way to do this shown in the Freedonia data set. This data set is detailed in the LEAP training exercises and there are also videos covering that on the LEAP YouTube channel. In that data set, I have a two-stage calculation of the overall demand for passenger-kms, which is calculated as the total population multiplied by the pass-kms/person. Then, in my scenarios, I model the overall population growth (by linking to a population variable in Key Assumptions) and the growth in pass-kms/person by linking to the growth in average incomes (GDP/capita). To do this, I make use of LEAP’s “GrowthAs” function.
If you think transport demand per capita will grow slower or faster than GDP per capita, you can apply an optional elasticity value in that function. In Freedonia we use an elasticity of 1.1 so that passenger transport demand per capita growths 10% faster than GDP per capita. As shown in attached image..
