Topic: Growth RateSubscribe | Previous | Next
Rizwan Awan 3/1/2018
I need suggestions for entering growth rate on the energy consumption in industry, household etc, It provides different options like linear smooth growth rate, time step function, intercept and other different options. But I am not certain about the future trend of growth of energy consumption in different sector. The data of energy consumption in previous years does not show the smooth trend and have many fluctuations. What to do in this case?
Utsavshree Rajbhandari 3/7/2018
Dear Rizwan,
There are various methods for forecasting the energy demand, but each are not perfect. It depends on what kind of data you have and how detailed you want to go with it. The easiest method is, obviously, Time-series method. The next common, simplistic and fairly deterministic model are regression and elasticity models. LEAP has built-in functions that can be used for these. The LEAP Training exercise give a good overview about use of each technique in various sectors using these models.
If you want to include the fluctuations, you might be interested in Autoregressive models and if you want to use more complex you might need to do it exogenously and input the data.
You might be interested to look into a paper by Ghalehkhondabi et al., 2017. "An overview of energy demand forecasting methods published in 2005–2015" where you can find good literature and other studies regarding it.
Best,