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5171 2025 11/11/2025 6:08:07 PM Guinea Ecuatorial, Republica de (2025) "La Estrategia de Desarrollo Baja en Emisiones a Largo Plazo de Guinea Ecuatorial (LT-LEDS)" Guinea Ecuatorial, Republica de. El presente documento constituye la Estrategia a Largo Plazo para un Desarrollo con Bajas Emisiones (LT-LEDS) de Guinea Ecuatorial. Elaborada en 2025, esta estrategia traza la hoja de ruta para la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) del país con horizonte al año 2050. El territorio nacional de Guinea Ecuatorial, que abarca desde zonas costeras cálidas y húmedas hasta islas con una densa cobertura forestal, presenta una alta vulnerabilidad frente a los efectos del cambio climático, entre los que se incluyen el aumento de las temperaturas, la disminución de las precipitaciones, la intensificación de lluvias extremas y el ascenso del nivel del mar. En 2022, el país fue clasificado como el 86º país más vulnerable al cambio climático y ocupó el puesto 177º en cuanto a preparación para afrontar sus desafíos. Guinea Ecuatorial participa activamente en las reuniones del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climático (IPCC, por sus siglas en inglés) desde 1990, y se adhirió a la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC) en el año 2000. En 2018, el país ratificó el Acuerdo de París, cuyo Artículo 4.19 alienta a los Estados Parte a desarrollar sus LT-LEDS. Con la elaboración del presente documento, Guinea Ecuatorial reafirma su compromiso con los esfuerzos globales para hacer frente al cambio climático. El proceso de elaboración de la LT-LEDS se estructura en una componente centrada en la participación y recopilación de información, compuesta por tres elementos clave: (i) Reuniones y entrevistas con actores estratégicos, destinadas a recoger sus aportes para el desarrollo de la LT-LEDS de Guinea Ecuatorial; (ii) un taller de prevalidación, realizado el 6 de marzo de 2025, en el cual se expusieron y aprobaron la metodología, las hipótesis y el alcance de la estrategia; y (iii) un taller de validación, llevado a cabo el 23 de mayo de 2025, en el que se presentaron y validaron los resultados y conclusiones de la LT-LEDS, así como la hoja de ruta para su implementación. En la otra componente, y con el objetivo de analizar las posibles trayectorias para la reducción de las emisiones nacionales de GEI, incluye la elaboración de dos escenarios prospectivos en la LT-LEDS: 1. Escenario Base. Refleja la continuidad de las políticas nacionales actuales en materia de mitigación y adaptación al cambio climático, y asume que las prácticas sectoriales existentes se mantienen sin cambios significativos. 2. Escenario Mitigación. Considera transformaciones en todos los sectores relevantes con el fin de mitigar los efectos del cambio climático y fortalecer la resiliencia del país. Este escenario incluye metas de reducción de emisiones brutas de GEI alineadas con la Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional (CDN), estableciendo una disminución del 35 % para 2035 y del 50 % para 2050, en comparación con los niveles de emisiones del año 2019. En coherencia con la CDN, los dos escenarios considerados en la LT-LEDS abarcan los siguientes cuatro sectores clave: Energía; Procesos industriales y uso de productos (IPPU); Agricultura, silvicultura y otros usos de la tierra (AFOLU); y Residuos. Además, esta estrategia ha incluido una revisión del inventario nacional de emisiones de GEI, con una actualización de los valores correspondientes al año 2019, que se utiliza como año base de referencia para la LT-LEDS. Los resultados de la LT-LEDS indican que, en el Escenario Base, las emisiones brutas en 2050 serían un 31 % superiores a las registradas en 2019, mientras que las emisiones netas serían aproximadamente siete veces mayores. Por el contrario, el Escenario de Mitigación proyecta una reducción del 50 % en las emisiones brutas para 2050 respecto a los niveles de 2019, y una disminución aún más significativa en las emisiones netas, que serían más de cuatro veces inferiores a las del año 2019, resultando incluso en emisiones netas negativas para el país. En términos absolutos, la diferencia entre ambos escenarios en 2050 equivale a 11.100 Gg CO2eq en emisiones brutas y 22.300 Gg CO2eq en emisiones netas (ver Tabla 1 y Figura 1). report Guinea Ecuatorial, Republica de La Estrategia de Desarrollo Baja en Emisiones a Largo Plazo de Guinea Ecuatorial (LT-LEDS) Guinea Ecuatorial, Republica de https://cdn.climatepolicyradar.org/navigator/GNQ/2025/equatorial-guinea-long-term-low-emission-development-strategy-lt-leds1-strategy-for-a-just-transition-in-equatorial-guinea-and-its-gender-responsive-investment-plan-2025-2035_2434daa504a9026090453796db211807.pdf 1 1 109 0
5174 2025 11/14/2025 1:01:12 PM Togo, Government of (2025) "Strategie de Developpement a Long Terme a Faible Emission de Carbone et Resilient au Climat Du Togo" Togo, Government of. Le Togo fait partie des pays vulnérables aux effets des changements climatiques. Selon les différentes projections climatiques, l'avenir ne semble guère propice aux systèmes de production et au bien-être de la population. Quels que soient le modèle et les hypothèses développés, toutes les analyses aboutissent à la conclusion selon laquelle les changements climatiques représenteraient une menace importante au développement socio-économique du pays. Les tendances de réchauffement climatique devraient s’accroître, les variations de précipitations vont s’accentuer provoquant ainsi des inondations, des écheresses, le décalage des saisons, l’augmentation des épidémies, l’érosion côtière, etc. De 1961 à 2018, le climat du Togo connait un réchauffement global qui se traduit par une augmentation des températures moyennes avec des écarts allant de 0,8 °C à 1,2 °C (MERF, 2022) Engagement du Togo à travers les CDN Le Togo s’est engagé à travers l’Accord de Paris, signé et ratifié respectivement le 19 septembre 2016 et le 28 juin 2017, à réduire de 50,57% ses émissions de GES à l’horizon 2030 dans ses CDN révisées en 2021. L’atteinte des objectifs de réduction des émissions pour une neutralité carbone d’ici la moitié du siècle (article 4.1 de l’Accord de Paris), requiert des actions transformationnelles à long terme qui permettront de modifier les modes actuels de consommation, de production et de financement. En addition aux CDN, l’article 4.19 de l’Accord de Paris, invite toutes les Parties à formuler et communiquer leur stratégie de développement à long terme à faible émission de carbone (LT-LEDS). De plus, le pacte climatique de Glasgow (décision 1/CMA.3) adopté lors de la COP26 de 2021 et le plan de mise en œuvre de Charm el-Cheikh (article 26) adopté à la COP27 en 2022, appellent les parties à communiquer leur stratégie de développement à long terme à faible émission de carbone (LT-LEDS) à la Convention-Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques (CCNUCC) le plus tôt que possible. La LT-LEDS est alors pour le pays un instrument de planification à long terme qui concilie le développement économique avec les urgences climatiques. Les CDN constitueraient par conséquents des documents de mise en œuvre des LTLEDS. En ce qui concerne le Togo, l’évaluation de la mise en opeuvre des CDN révisées (CDN2.0) montre que le Togo est en bonne voie de réaliser son objectif de réduction des émissions de GES (15 378,55 Gg CO2-eq) à l’horizon 2030. Objectifs d’une ambition à long terme climatique du Togo La vision globale de la LT-LEDS du Togo stipule que : A l’horizon 2060, le Togo est une nation paisible, moderne et résiliente aux changements climatiques avec une croissance économique soutenue, innovante, sobre en carbone, inclusive et durable. Cette vision repose sur celle de la feuille de route gouvernementale 2020-2025 et a pour objectif de réduire significativement les émissions de gaz à effet de serre par rapport aux niveaux des émissions de l’année 2010. Elle favorisera le développement durable et garantira un développement économique et social inclusif, résilient au climat grâce à un engagement multipartite dans divers secteurs. L’atteinte de cette vision s’appuie sur les secteurs prioritaires de développement identifiés dans les CDN du Togo tels que : l’énergie y compris les transports, l’agriculture, la foresterie et autres affectations des terres (AFAT), les procédés industriels et utilisation des produits (PIUP), ainsi que le secteur des déchets, les établissements humains, la santé, les ressources en eau, la zone côtière. En dehors de ces secteurs clés, le pays compte prendre en considération les secteurs transversaux tels que la recherche et l’innovation, la coopération, l’éducation et les technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) pour catalyser l’atteinte de cette vision tout en s’assurant de combler les inégalités liées au genre. Ainsi, des orientations sectorielles permettront la mise en œuvre de la vision nationale. Neutralité carbone du Togo Les potentielles de réduction des émissions définies de manière concertée avec les acteurs conduiront le Togo vers une neutralité carbone en 2060 selon le scénario « conforme ». Des possibilités existent pour le Togo d’accélérer l’atteinte des cibles définies au niveau de chaque secteur afin de réaliser une neutralité carbone en 2050. Enfin un troisième scénario dit « retardée » conduirait le Togo à la neutralité carbone en 2070. Que ce soit l’un ou l’autre des scénarii, le Togo devra mettre en place des mesures devant réduire significativement les émissions dans les secteurs AFAT et Energie incluant le transport tout en renforçant la résilience des populations et des écosystèmes. Au vu des analyses et des simulations, le scénario conforme avec une neutralité carbone peu avant 2060 est le scénario réaliste pour le Togo. Ce scénario est aligné aux objectifs sectoriels contenus dans les documents de planification et les cibles quantitatives issues des consultations sectorielles. Avec ce scénario conforme, l’objectif de réduction des émissions table sur 192 986,42 Gg CO2-eq en 2060. L’atteinte de la neutralité carbone s’appuiera davantage sur le secteur AFAT avec un accent sur la foresterie qui constituera un grand puit de carbone et l’Agriculture qui non seulement adoptera des pratiques résilientes au climat mais également moins émettrices de GES. Le second secteur est celui de l’Energie (incluant le transport) avec une transition vers des énergies renouvelables augmentant ainsi leur part dans le mixte énergétique et l’adoption des modes de transport sobres en carbone (mobilité verte). Les politiques fortes dans ces deux grands secteurs seront suffisantes pour réaliser l’ambition de neutralité carbone en 2060. Les secteurs des déchets et des PIUP sont au second plan de cette contribution à la neutralité carbone. Besoins en financement La réalisation de la vision et des objectifs de la LT-LEDS du Togo nécessitera un investissement de l’ordre de 11 920,59 milliards de FCFA, soit 19,87 milliards USD d’ici 2060 dont 8 014,93 milliards de FCFA pour l’atténuation (soit 67%), 3 344,66 milliards de FCFA pour l’adaptation (soit 28%) et 561 milliards de FCFA (soit 5 %) pour les aspects transversaux notamment (i) l’éducation et la sensibilisation, (ii) la recherche, (iii) le renforcement des capacités, et (iv) les technologies de l'information et de la communication (TIC). Il est à noter que les coûts des mesures transversales (atténuation et adaptation) ont été pris en compte dans la composante atténuation. Coûts bénéfices de la LT-LEDS et réalisation des ODD Si les ressources sont mobilisées et les mesures mises en œuvre, la LT-LEDS du Togo comporte des avantages économiques et des co-bénéfices sociaux contribuant aux Objectifs de Développement Durable (ODD). L’évaluation des coûts et bénéfices montre : (i) un ratio coûts-bénéfices (RCB) de 9,31, indiquant qu’un franc investi génère plus de 9 francs de bénéfices ; et (ii) une valeur actuelle nette (VAN) de 32 987,2 milliards FCFA, traduisant une création significative de richesse pour la société togolaise. Tous les secteurs présentent des RCB supérieurs à 1, justifiant pleinement les investissements envisagés. Le secteur de l’énergie ressort comme le plus rentable (RCB de 28,1) tandis que celui des déchets est le moins rentable (RCB de 1,5). Au-delà de ces rendements financiers, la stratégie génère des co-bénéfices majeurs : amélioration de la productivité agricole, réduction des pertes post-récolte, résilience accrue des infrastructures, amélioration de la santé publique, création d’emplois verts et réduction des risques climatiques. Ces bénéfices confirment que la LT-LEDS est non seulement une réponse stratégique à l’urgence climatique, mais aussi un catalyseur pour un développement inclusif, durable et prospère pour le Togo. De plus la LT-LEDS du Togo permettra la réalisation des ODD en fonction des secteurs avec au premier rang les ODD 13 ; 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4 ; 5 ; 6 ; 7 ; 11 et 17. Ainsi la LT-LEDS du Togo constitue non seulement une réponse stratégique à l’urgence climatique, mais aussi un catalyseur pour un développement inclusif, durable et prospère pour le Togo. Processus de développement de la LT-LEDS du Togo La LT-LEDS du Togo a été l’aboutissement d’une démarche méthodologique inclusive, participative et co-constructive. Cette démarche est en phase avec le principe « ne laisser personne pour compte », pilier essentiel de l’agenda 2030. Elle est aussi en phase avec le principe de l’égalité́ promu par la Déclaration universelle des droits de l’homme (DUDH). Elle a connu deux grandes phases. La première a permis d’établir la vision nationale et les orientations sectorielles. Au cours de cette phase, toutes les catégories de parties prenantes (ministères sectoriels, instances de décisions, collectivités territoriales, organisations de la société civile, le secteur privé) ont été consultés. La deuxième phase a connu également des concertations avec les sectoriels et a permis d’établir les cibles quantitatives de la LT-LEDS. Les scénarii ont été établis grâce à LEAP du Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) combiné à EXACT de la FAO pour le secteur de la foresterie. Trois scenarii ont été élaborés en considérant les évolutions sociales et économiques du Togo : (i) Scénario d’ambition retardée : Le Togo atteint ses ambitions de 2030 en 2050 et la neutralité carbone en 2070 ; (ii) Scénario conforme : Le Togo poursuit les efforts actuels pour graduellement atteindre la neutralité carbone à l’horizon 2060 ; (iii) Scénario d’ambition accélérée : Le Togo redouble ses efforts et atteint la neutralité carbone en 2040. Facteurs clés de réussite La mise en œuvre des orientations sectorielles et l’atteinte de la vision nationale de la LTLEDS passera par un engagement fort de chaque acteur quel que soit le niveau où il se trouve. Parmi ces acteurs, l’État a une importante responsabilité du fait de son pouvoir régalien et de sa capacité d’action en matière de mobilisation et d’engagement des autres acteurs notamment le secteur privé, les partenaires techniques et financiers, les collectivités territoriales, les populations à la base, etc. Une gouvernance avec une volonté clairement affirmée et un engagement des premières autorités du pays constituent un facteur clé de réussite. Il reviendra à l’État togolais, la responsabilité de créer un environnement attractif et rassurant à travers la poursuite et le renforcement des politiques climatiques, la mise en place des instruments juridiques et institutionnels. Les ministères sectoriels devront intégrer les orientations et les mesures de la présente LT-LEDS dans les outils de planification, de mise en œuvre, de suivi-évaluation et de rapportage. Il en est de même pour les collectivités territoriales qui devront prendre en compte les mesures de la LT-LEDS dans leur outil de planification locale. Le secteur privé et les organisations de la société civile devront également s’engager fortement pour soutenir l’action gouvernementale et catalyser l’atteinte des objectifs de cette LT-LEDS. Au regard des besoins importants en financement de la mise en œuvre de la LT-LEDS et des opportunités que présente la finance climat, le secteur financier et bancaire togolais devra prendre en compte ou réorienter son positionnement stratégique pour accompagner efficacement la transition vers des investissements décarbonés et résilients aux risques climatiques. Il est important de créer des environnements attractifs à l’investissement du secteur privé national, à l’engagement des institutions d’assurance et de régularisation. La communication et la sensibilisation, le suivi & évaluation et les rapportages périodiques couplés d’un système efficient de coordination constitueront également des leviers pour assurer une mise en œuvre effective de la LT-LEDS. Ce document de LT-LEDS est accompagné d’un plan de mise en œuvre et d’un plan d’investissement. report Togo, Government of Strategie de Developpement a Long Terme a Faible Emission de Carbone et Resilient au Climat Du Togo Togo, Government of https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/LT-LEDS-Togo_30-4-2025_VF.pdf 1 1 156 1
5169 2023 11/11/2025 5:53:44 PM Jamaica, Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, Climate Change Branch (2023) "2050 Long-term Emission Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy for Jamaica (LT-LEDS)" Jamaica, Government of. As a vulnerable Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Jamaica is acutely aware of the dangers presented by climate change. Jamaica has experienced first-hand the damage that comes with hurricanes and extreme weather events. Jamaica is also committed to supporting the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Jamaica was the first Caribbean country to submit its Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2020, and the eleventh nation globally to meet its commitments to share this plan to reduce carbon emissions by 2030, in keeping with the Paris Agreement. Building on these efforts, Jamaica has taken steps to develop a “2050 LongTerm Emissions Reduction and Climate-Resilient Strategy” (LTS) in line with the expectations laid out in the Paris Agreement’s Article 4 Paragraph 19. Shortly after the submission of Jamaica’s updated NDCs in 2020, work for the preparation of the LTS began, with long-term scenario analyses and the establishment of a committee to oversee the process of developing said strategy. Jamaica has a robust policy framework that supports the achievement of the LTS vision of sustainable, resilient, and low-carbon development: * Vision 2030 Jamaica outlines the country’s long-term national development plan to guide the country in achieving its sustainable development and prosperity goals by 2030; * The Medium Term Socio-Economic Policy Framework (MTF) provides strategic direction for the implementation of Vision 2030 three years at a time; * The Climate Change Policy Framework (CCPF), first adopted in 2015 and updated in 2021, outlines governance arrangements, objectives, goals, principles, and strategies for the country to respond effectively to the impacts and challenges of climate change through measures in several priority areas; * The National Energy Policy (NEP) was adopted in 2009 and is intended to run through 2030. The NEP establishes the way forward to achieve a modern, efficient and environmentally sustainable energy sector for the country, relying on a set of sub-policies to achieve its intended goal. The NEP is currently undergoing an update process. Jamaica is also at present undergoing the process to undertake the development of the country’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP). This process is being spearheaded by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ). Previous analytical efforts have assessed potential mitigation and adaptation pathways for Jamaica, finding that achieving national objectives of reducing emissions and improving resilience will require substantial, concerted efforts across a range of sectors. These actions, necessary for achieving the already agreed-to targets in the updated NDC and critical to unlocking further long-term ambition, will represent a significant increase in pace and scale relative to the climate change mitigation and adaptation action that has occurred to date in the country. Jamaica’s low-carbon and resilient development will take a people-centric, sustainable approach, demonstrating leadership in the Caribbean’s low carbon transformation and providing a model that supports quality livelihoods, improved well-being, and health, benefitting Jamaicans and the region alike. By 2050, Jamaica aspires to reduce significantly its greenhouse gas emissions in line with efforts to limit increases in global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while building its resilience to the effects of climate change impacts. Jamaica intends to undertake broad mitigation efforts, across the economy, reducing emissions 73% below 2020 levels (7.25 MtCO2e) by 20501. Jamaica will aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. This ambitious target will be accomplished through transformative actions undertaken in different sectors, including electricity, transport, buildings, industry, land use change and forestry, agriculture, and waste management. The sectoral plans include transitioning to renewable energy sources, implementing energy-efficient technologies, improving urban planning and transportation systems, enhancing building energy efficiency, adopting sustainable forestry and agricultural practices, and implementing waste reduction programmes. Table 1 summarises the main mitigation targets for each sector. Collectively, these measures will play a pivotal role in addressing climate change and curbing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve a more sustainable and resilient future. report Jamaica, Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, Climate Change Branch 2050 Long-term Emission Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy for Jamaica (LT-LEDS) Jamaica, Government of https://cdn.climatepolicyradar.org/navigator/JAM/2023/jamaica-s-long-term-emission-reduction-and-climate-resilient-strategy-lt-leds1_ed207b9e133ba9f2b9c38de52a569695.pdf 1 1 194 2
5038 2023 9/16/2025 7:10:51 AM Ethiopia, Ministry of Planning and Development (2023) "Ethiopia’s Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy (2020-2050) (LT-LEDS)" Ethiopia, Ministry of Planning and Development. Background As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are encouraged to produce a long-term low emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS) to provide a roadmap for longterm decarbonization and climate resilience, which is particularly useful in the context of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), since these trajectories can then be used as a benchmark for revised and updated NDCs. Underpinning the interim and long-run targets of the LTLEDS with scientifically sound modeling demonstrates the feasibility of the targets and, in turn, enhances the credibility of the whole LT-LEDS. Using recognized, sectorspecific, and open-access models help to build national capacity and expertise needed for updating the LTLEDS in a transparent and participatory way. Against this background, the current summary note aims to present the main outcomes of the development of the LT-LEDS for Ethiopia. Ethiopia LT-LEDS process and main activities The LT-LEDS development process was led by the Ministry of Planning and Development (MoPD), with Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) providing technical assistance and the AFD providing financial support. The MoPD established an LT-LEDS Steering Committee to provide overall guidance and endorse the process and development of the LT-LEDS. In addition, to ensure that the LT-LEDS enhances ownership, promotes knowledge sharing, and ensures data flow from key stakeholders, seven technical sectoral working groups were established. The working groups consisted of government experts from different line ministries and the Climate Resilience Green Economy (CRGE) Facility, as well as GGGI technical experts, and covered the following sectoral and cross-sectoral thematic areas: energy and transport, forestry, agriculture, waste, industry, macroeconomy, and adaptation. A series of workshops were also organized as key milestones of the project to engage with stakeholders on the LT-LEDS development process and to solicit feedback to incorporate into the LT-LEDS. Furthermore, the MoPD with the support of GGGI, ensured a wider stakeholder engagement through six national stakeholder consultation and validation workshops and five training and capacity building events. BAU and national pathways for Ethiopia’s net-zero and climate-resilient transition The development of Ethiopia’s net-zero and climate resilient pathways is based on a series of consultations with the sectoral working groups and MoPD and engagement with relevant stakeholders during the second national stakeholders’ consultation and validation workshop. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three net-zero emissions (NZE) scenarios were developed. The BAU scenario constitutes the baseline against which the performance of the NZE scenarios is compared and costs (and benefits) are assessed. The economic growth forecast is aligned with the 10-year economic transformation plan and the longer-term growth strategy. The three decarbonization scenarios show a range of possible trajectories for choosing a pathway for Ethiopia. In the NDC-aligned scenario, ambition is phased in to achieve the NDC emissions target in 2030, after which ambition is increased by 2035 to achieve NZE by 2050. The maximum ambition scenario envisages the maximum ambition early on, leading to NZE reached around 2032 and remaining below zero after that. In the late action scenario, ambitions are reduced, compared to the other scenarios, and most ambition is implemented in 2040– 2050; the NDC 2030 emissions target is missed, but if high ambition is implemented during the last years, the scenario can reach NZE by 2050. Cost-benefit analysis of the NZE pathways The implementation of LT-LEDS gives way to many costs and benefits that should be considered in exploring the appropriate pathways towards decarbonizing and climate proofing Ethiopia’s economy. Benefits significantly exceed the costs in all scenarios, whereas an overall judgment sees advantages in favor of the NDC-aligned scenario. Avoided costs and added benefits are the main drivers of the net benefits derived from the implementation of low-emission development. In terms of avoided costs, the energy bill is the main contributor. The main added benefits derived from the decarbonization of Ethiopia’s economy are total real GDP and additional discretionary spending in the economy generated through job creation. Comparing the cost-benefit analysis of the three scenarios as compared to the BAU scenario, the differences are larger or smaller depending on the metric considered. The maximum ambition scenario yields the highest benefits but also the highest investment and costs. This can be explained by the expectation that technologies mature over time such that decarbonization actions become cheaper over time, thus making early action more expensive. In line with this, the late action scenario is the least cost scenario but also leads to fewer benefits. Ensuring gender and social inclusion outcomes in LT‑LEDS implementation The LT-LEDS recognizes the role that women, youth, and vulnerable communities play in climate action, and in alignment with national sustainable development policies, LT-LEDS implementation will maximize opportunities for gender and social inclusion outcomes. The LT-LEDS proposes an economic transformation that leads to the creation of economic opportunities and green jobs though paid employment and entrepreneurship. The LT-LEDS acknowledges the principles of just transition to a decarbonized, resilient economy and proposes measures to ensure a more inclusive labor market through establishing a Women and Youth in Green Jobs Program that addresses barriers to accessing economic opportunities. The program will also address the challenges workers face in vulnerable employment and enterprises in informal sectors. Financing the net-zero and climate-resilient transition The LT-LEDS presents estimates of investments needed to achieve NZE by mid-century under the three selected scenarios. It estimates the gap between the needed and available investments to meet the net-zero targets and provides recommendations to close the financial gap by describing the financing options associated with costs estimates derived from the Cost Benefit Analysis. report Ethiopia, Ministry of Planning and Development Ethiopia’s Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy (2020-2050) (LT-LEDS) Ethiopia, Ministry of Planning and Development https://leap.sei.org/documents/EthiopiaLTLEDS2022.pdf Ethiopia; Agriculture; GHG emissions; Industry; Non-energy; Transport 1 1 108 3
5167 2023 11/11/2025 5:30:41 PM Armenia, Republic of (2023) "Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy of the Republic of Armenia (Until 2050) (LT-LEDS)" Armenia, Republic of. 1. Today climate change is a global challenge. Since the 1970s the world has been experiencing a change in climate conditions, it manifests itself in an increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. As a result of human activity, there was a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions contributing to the strengthening of the greenhouse effect thus leading to additional warming of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Climate change currently observed and expected in the future is associated with widespread and irreversible consequences for anthropogenic and natural systems, and carries risks to economic, energy, food security and sustainable development. To minimize these risks, it is necessary to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote protection of absorbers and to adapt the systems of administration, economy sectors and infrastructure to changing climate conditions. 2. Climate change has a significant impact on the Republic of Armenia, namely, the number of natural disasters increases and natural cycles change (an increase in the number of droughts, early frosts, forest fires and floods), biodiversity is being decreased. During the period of 1990-2019 deviation of the average annual temperature from the baseline period (1961-1990) was on average 1.23°C. In 2019, a deviation of 1.5°C from annual average temperature for the period of 1961-1990 was recorded. Therefore, despite the insignificant share of Armenia in global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions of 0.02%, the country has actively joined the global processes to combat climate change. 3. The Republic of Armenia ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in May 1993, the Kyoto Protocol in December 2002 and its Doha Amendment and Paris Agreement in February 2017. The Paris Agreement is the first legally binding global climate change agreement, which sets out a plan for combating climate change aiming to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, while striving to reduce it to 1.5°C. 4. Article 4 of the Paris Agreement states that all parties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS), considering their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in light of different national conditions. LT-LEDS shall guide countries on the path to achieving this goal while ensuring that high, sustainable, balanced and equitable growth is harmonized with climate plans. LT-LEDS supports solving a wide range of issues, such as alignment of ambitious development goals and climate measures, provision of a long-term agenda for short- and medium-term commitments, delivery of early and predictable messages to high-emitting sectors and economic entities, consideration of climate change mitigation opportunities across the economy, development of economic policy in line with the trends of technological progress in the context of transforming challenges into opportunities. 5. The program of the RA Government lay emphasis on the issue of increasing the country’s resilience to climate change by contributing to implementation of the best adaptation practices, active participation in global efforts towards low-carbon development, and proper fulfilment of international commitments on climate change mitigation. 6. Pursuing these goals and adhering to its international commitments in the fight against climate change, the RA Government implements Long-Term (until 2050) Low Emissions Development Strategy of the Republic of Armenia. report Armenia, Republic of Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy of the Republic of Armenia (Until 2050) (LT-LEDS) Armenia, Republic of https://cdn.climatepolicyradar.org/navigator/ARM/2024/armenia-long-term-low-greenhouse-gas-emission-development-strategy-lt-leds_928efc40b59bf51392107b7e881b6bed.pdf 1 1 37 4
5170 2023 11/11/2025 5:59:43 PM Nigeria, National Climate Change Council (2023) "Nigeria's long-term low-emission development strategy - 2060 (LT-LEDS)" Nigeria, National Climate Change Council. 1. Introduction Nigeria has prepared this Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) as part of its commitment to the Paris Agreement (PA). The PA commits the world to decarbonising its development process with a long-term objective of avoiding dangerous levels of global warming from human-induced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This commitment takes into account the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities,” while also considering respective capabilities in the light of national circumstances. In addition, the PA introduced the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as a way for parties to convey their nearterm actions in reducing emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change. In 2021, Nigeria submitted its updated NDCs and LTV 20502 as its first contribution towards elaborating this LT-LEDS to the UNFCCC. The country also pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 as part of its commitment to the PA. The LT-LEDS presented here has been elaborated to explore how Nigeria can meet its net-zero carbon goal while ensuring sustainable socioeconomic development and enhancing climate resilience. The LT-LEDS links Nigeria's NDCs, the short-term development planning tool, to the country's long-term objectives, providing a framework for policy development. Thus, the LT-LEDS will help strengthen and guide the NDCs by providing a long-term vision that gives coherence and direction to the country's aspiration for sustainable, low-carbon, and climate-resilient development. 2. Nigeria's LT-LEDS Development Process Nigeria's LT-LEDS process was led by the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC) with the support of the 2050 Pathways Platform. Natural Eco Capital acted as the National Project Coordinator, whilst the technical support for developing the scenarios, GHG emissions and macroeconomics modelling was provided by Nigeria's Deep Decarbonisation Pathway (Nigeria -DDP). The latter was led by the Centre for Climate Change and Development - Alex Ekwueme Federal University (CCCD-AE-FUNAI) in collaboration with the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and funded by the French Development Agency (AFD). Natural Eco Capital carried out the vulnerability and adaptation modelling with the support of Nelen & Schuurmans of the Netherlands. The essential tasks in developing the LT-LEDS included governance/project coordination and management, modelling and scenario generation, stakeholder engagement, implementation planning, and report preparation. A series of inclusive stakeholder engagements were carried out to include government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), the private sector, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), academia, and development partners. The development process was carried out to ensure proper alignment with key national development policies (e.g. National Climate Change Policy (2021-2030) and legal frameworks (Nigeria Climate Change Act, 2021). It also aligned programmes (e.g. National Climate Change Programme (2021-2030), strategies and plans (e.g. the NDC, National Development Plan (2021-2025), Agenda 2050, Energy Transition Plan, National Action Plan on Gender and Climate Change, etc) as well as relevant tools (e.g. Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050). report Nigeria, National Climate Change Council Nigeria's long-term low-emission development strategy - 2060 (LT-LEDS) Nigeria, National Climate Change Council https://cdn.climatepolicyradar.org/navigator/NGA/2024/nigeria-s-long-term-low-emission-development-strategy-2060_5e8ab7aaf1203464792605d4cf13d4aa.pdf 1 1 187 5
5168 2021 11/11/2025 5:40:04 PM Nepal, Government of (2021) "Nepal's Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions (LT-LEDS)" Nepal, Government of. Nepal is committed to accelerating climate action whilst adhering to the principle of shared but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities towards the implementation of the Paris Agreement as per national circumstances. Nepal's goal is to achieve net zero emissions from 2020-2030 and after a period of very low emissions to full net zero by 2045. Nepal would also like to gain recognition for its mitigation contributions beyond its border through clean energy trade. Nepal’s Long Term Strategy envisions bold policymaking, social transformation, and technological advancements that will lead to a carbon-neutral, inclusive, and climate resilient future. Nepal’s total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2019 was 23 mMtCO2 in the reference scenario. This figure is expected to rise to 34 mMtCO2 in 2030 and 79 mMtCO2 in 2050. While non-energy-related emissions accounted for 46 per cent of net CO2 emissions in 2019 the energy sector accounted for 54 per cent. In the reference scenario, non-energy emissions would gradually decrease to 32 per cent of total emissions by 2050. Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) CO2 emissions were estimated to be 8 mMtCO2 in 2019 and are expected to rise to 17 mMtCO2 by 2050. In the With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario, the net CO2 emissions will be reduced by 30 mMtCO2 in 2030 and 50 mMtCO2 in 2050. In this scenario, the energy sector will be one of the most important contributors to emission reductions. LULUCF will contribute significantly to carbon removal in the first 10 years. However, the sink potential of LULUCF will decrease overtime per the assumptions used in this scenario. As a result, after 2030, net carbon emissions will rise at an annual rate of 11 per cent. In the WIth Additional Measures (WAM) scenario ambitious interventions in the energy sector combined with ongoing and additional carbon removal interventions indicate that Nepal’s net CO2 emissions will be lower than ‘zero’ in the period 2020 to 2030, then hovering around ‘zero’ throughout 2035 to 2045. Sequestration increases from 2045 onwards reaching -5.7 mMT in 2050. Comparison of different scenarios shows that the country's carbon emission reduction potential is very high, and with interventions of strategic measures, it is capable of maintaining very low emissions levels. It is even possible, with ambitious, conditional targets, to achieve negative carbon emissions by 2050, whilst reaching net-zero before or by 2045. The sectoral strategy includes the following: 1. Energy: Nepal uses energy in agriculture, transportation, industry, and commercial and residential sectors. As per the 2019 baseline assessment, residential, transportation, industrial, commercial, and agricultural energy use contributes to emissions in descending order. Thus, to reduce carbon emissions in the residential sector the use of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) must be reduced and more electrical appliances e.g. electric cooking and biogas must be used. The transportation sector will need to transition to zero-emission transportation for intercity, intracity, and freight travel across public and private modes. The brick sector needs to shift to zig-zag and tunnel kilns technologies, and then full electric heating. The use of energy-efficient technologies will also help in reducing emissions in the agriculture sector. The main strategy is to power the industrial, commercial, and agricultural sectors with renewable energy and hydrogen technologies, which Nepal has in abundance. Furthermore, in the power generation sector, all electricity will be generated from renewable sources, primarily hydropower plants, as well as solar PV. Refer to Table 2 for the strategy in the energy sector. 2. IPPU: Nepal's emissions from industrial processes and product uses are currently low. But with the expected growth forecast, Nepal will switch to renewable energy and waste-related fuel, and raw materials such as limestone for the cement industry. Additionally, Nepal will explore the potential for carbon capture and storage, beyond that possible through the forest sector. 3. Agriculutre, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU): In the agriculture sector, Nepal must switch to better cultivation practices, rice intensification system, better manure management, soil organic matter enrichment, soil management practices such as low soil tillage, adaptive and resilient varieties, and breeds, expanded adoption of controlled release of stabilized fertilizers, better enteric fermentation processes, and promote agroforestry and other sustainable agriculture systems. 4. For Forestry and Other and Land use: Nepal must increase and maintain its forest cover, increase afforestation and achieve net-zero deforestation, adopt measures to decrease forest fire incidents, scale-up sustainable forest management, and agroforestry, and private forestry practices, promote energy-efficient technologies and improve the monitoring and database systems. Refer to Table 4 for a strategy for the forestry sector. 5. Waste: To reduce waste emissions from solid waste disposal, open burning of waste, and waste-water treatments technologies like methane gas recovery, incineration of waste for heat and power generation, and methane generation from anaerobic digester in wastewater treatment must be promoted. 6. Energy Trade: Significant emissions reductions can be achieved outside of Nepal through Hydro and Solar power exports. These have been included to illustrate the potential, whilst acknowledging that this does not form part of the current National emissions regime. Nepal’s Long-Term Strategy setups up ambitious sector strategies and its implementation will be guided by transformative policy and legal strategies identified for each sector, clear institutional mechanisms, clarity in roles and responsibilities of all three spheres of Nepal’s governments, engagement of the private sector, and other agencies, enhanced stakeholder collaboration, adequate financial resources, and a robust Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) mechanism. Nepal's ambition-related actions necessitate significant financial resources, upon which its ambition is conditional. Investments: Significant investment will be required to achieve these ambitious GHG mitigations and net abatement targets over the implementation period. Demand-side investment, transformative investments, and non-energy sector investment, such as forestry, are all included, (production costs of green hydrogen are excluded). The required costs are estimated in constant US Dollar prices (2000 AD) for all scenarios. The total costs of the sectors considered in the Reference scenario are estimated to be 4.2 billion dollars from 2021 to 2030, 7 billion dollars from 2031 to 2040, and 17.5 billion dollars from 2041 to 2050. In the WEM scenario, the total costs of the sectors considered are estimated to be 42.8 billion USD from 2021 to 2030, 34.4 billion USD from 2031 to 2040, and 56.2 billion USD from 2041 to 2050. In the WAM scenario, the total costs of the sectors considered are estimated to be 46.4 billion USD from 2021 to 2030, 53.4 billion USD from 2031 to 2040, and 96.3 billion USD from 2041 to 2050. Linkages with other sectors: The ambition of Nepal to minimise emissions and achieve netzero emissions by 2045 has clear links to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, and implementation of Nepal’s Climate Change Policy (2019), REDD strategy, and NAP for 2030 & 2050. The SDGs include both direct and indirect targets and indicators aimed at achieving low-carbon, climate-resilient development in Nepal. Climate action has been fully integrated into the SDGs as a key means of achieving its sectoral goals of sustainable development. Another important aspect is to consider the gender and inclusion issues whilst designing and implementing the mitigation strategies. report Nepal, Government of Nepal's Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions (LT-LEDS) Nepal, Government of https://cdn.climatepolicyradar.org/navigator/NPL/1900/nepal-s-long-term-strategy-for-net-zero-emissions_f0040e4c23c645ab434b38f89dca6a1f.pdf 1 1 37 6