This manual has been developed by Sustainable Energy Africa as a handbook for city officials and planners in South Africa. It identifies energy interventions that will save money, promote local economic development and enhance the sustainability of cities. Four key interventions are identified:  solar water heaters, energy efficient lighting, energy efficient buildings, and public transport.  Scenarios for five cities in South Africa have been modeled using LEAP and are described in the manual.

Report available here in eight sections: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.

Link to this Application.

This study authored by Shobhakar Dhakal of IGES in Japan examines Kathmandu Valley's motorized travel demand. It suggests that the demand will increase to 27 billion passenger-km by 2025, and the number of vehicles operating in the Valley will triple to about half a million by 2025. The study was sponsored by START International Secretariat under the auspices of the Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission and Global Carbon Cycle.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to help develop the 3rd APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook for 2006. The report contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Full report available here

Link to this Application.

This scenario study is a biennial publication of OLADE (the Latin American Energy Agency). It provides a forward-looking overview of energy supply and demand prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean to the year 2018. It includes data on the 26 member countries of OLADE. The study was conducted by OLADE in conjunction with the Bariloche Foundation, Argentina and the Independent University of Mexico and with financial support from the European Commission. LEAP was used as the main modeling framework for the study.

Report available for purchase from OLADE here.

A LEAP dataset developed for this study is available here

Link to this Application.

Current global energy models provide aggregate forecasts of future energy consumption and production trends. They lack sufficient detail, however, to be able to describe what these broad trends imply for end-use consumption patterns in specific sectors such as buildings, transport and industry. This lack of detail makes it difficult to assess the plausibility of existing models in terms of indicators such as end-use efficiency, usage pattern, size/scale and technology penetration.

LBNL’s Global Energy Model (GEM) project attempts to fill this gap by creating a new global end-use model of energy consumption. In the first ongoing phase of the work, an end-use energy model has been created in LEAP that divides the globe into ten regions. In each region, “marker” countries have been identified where detailed data is more readily available that can support an end-use analysis. Results from these marker countries can then be used to inform trends in the other countries in each region. Once fully developed, the model is intended to be used (among other things) as a tool for examining the plausibility of energy demand forecasts created in more aggregate models. Thus it is expected to fill a considerable gap in current modeling efforts.

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Numerous countries have used LEAP to prepare greenhouse gas mitigation assessments as part of their initial national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). LEAP is also expected to be an important tool for countries preparing their second (and in some cases third) national communications. To this end, LEAP has recently been demonstrated as part of a one week training workshop held by the UNFCCC for non-Annex 1 Parties embarking on their next national communications. The National Communications Support Programme of the UNDP has recently informed us that 85 countries have chosen to use LEAP to assist in their Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessments as part of their National Communications to the UNFCCC.

A report on a LEAP training in Egypt hosted by NCSP in 2006 is available here.

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A U.S. EPA lead initiative that engages developing countries in integrated planning to address both local environmental concerns and reduce associated global greenhouse gas emissions. The program promotes the analysis and local support for implementation of policy measures with multiple public health, economic and environmental benefits. To date, government agencies and research institutions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, the Philippines and South Korea have participated. A number of these studies have used LEAP as part of their analytical toolkit.

More information here.

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The Energy Research Centre (ERC) in Cape Town, South Africa has developed scenarios for Cape Town’s energy future. LEAP was used to simulate how energy might develop in Cape Town over the next twenty years. Cape Town had already developed a State of Energy report earlier, and adopted a City Energy Strategy including a 10% renewable energy target. The ERC report looked forward at how energy patterns might change in the future. The report found that policy interventions indeed can make a difference. Major energy savings can be made from modal shifts in the transport sector and with efficient lighting. Efficiency measures save money, and can help poor households in particular reduce their energy bills substantially. Implementing the city’s renewable energy target will have significant costs, which can be partly off-set by selling carbon credits. Targeted interventions can reduce local air pollution, and Cape Town has the opportunity to become a leader in addressing greenhouse gas emissions. The report identifies a wide range of policies that are viable in terms of costs, social benefits and the environment.

The report is available here.

For more information, contact Harald Winkler, Senior Researcher, ERC, University of Cape Town.

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The Governors of Washington, Oregon, and California have recently approved a series of recommendations for action to combat global warming, and directed their staffs to continue working on state and regional goals and strategies to combat global warming over the coming year. This effort is widely considered one of leading state initiatives on climate change in the United States. The Governors have committed to act individually and regionally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below current levels through strategies that promote long-term economic growth, protect public health and the environment, consider social equity, and expand public awareness. In this latest development, the Governors approved 36 recommendations in five areas that were jointly developed by the three states. The recommendations are based on a range of analyses including a major scenario study developed by SEI for the Energy Foundation. The scenario study was conducted using a range of different models, with LEAP used as the main organizational accounting framework of the study.

A press release from the Governor of Oregon is available here.

The main report is available here, and the scenario study (appendix B of the report) is available here.

A LEAP data set for the study is available here

Link to this Application.

The Department of Environmental Management (DEM) of the State of Rhode Island facilitated a multi-stakeholder process to develop an action plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the State of Rhode Island. The process involved stakeholders from the local community including representatives of industries, and local electric, oil and gas suppliers. SEI used LEAP to show where Rhode Island was heading in terms of its GHG emission trends and to help quantify and evaluate the potential savings and costs of various alternative GHG abatement options.

Project web site accesible here, where you can download various documents including some describing the analyses conducted using LEAP.

Link to this Application.

Improved access to energy is a critical input for achieving the MDGs. McKinsey & Company undertook this study for the United Nations Millennium Project (MP). The MDGs are internationally agreed targets that aim to make significant inroads into addressing the world’s development challenges, such as halving the number of people living in poverty, and reducing child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. The MP—an advisory body to the UN Secretary-General —has been tasked with developing an implementation framework that will allow the MDGs to be met by 2015. Thematic task forces have been established to map out the resource requirements, financing strategies and sequence of investments needed. The MP is initially studying seven countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. In the absence of internationally-agreed targets for access to energy, the MP defined a “parallel energy MDG” - minimum energy needs to provide basic services. The study analyzed a portfolio of interventions from which governments could choose and criteria that could be use in creating country-specific intervention plans. LEAP was used to facilitate costing of the case study scenarios.

Study summary available here.

Millennium Project home page.

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China’s ability to forge a sustainable energy path has global consequences. China’s annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprise nearly half of those from developing countries, and 12% of global emissions. At the same time, China has ambitious goals for economic development, and must find ways to power the achievement of those goals that are both environmentally and socially sustainable. In this study, the Beijing Energy Efficiency Center (BECON), part of the Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI), sought to explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and its longer-term aims through a sustainable development strategy. The project was conducted as a collaborative study between the United States and China. The U.S. team was led by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) The teams used LEAP to create an end-use scenario-based model for national energy-efficiency planning. SEI assisted the Chinese research team to in their use of LEAP.

Report available here

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In Japan, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with the energy transformation sectors account for over 30% of total CO2 emitted by the national economy. Substantial efforts to reduce the emissions in the power sector—which produces over half of energy transformation emissions—could have a significant impact on climate change mitigation in Japan. This report commissioned byWWF Japan explores the potential for CO2 emissions reductions from Japan’s power sector by comparing the estimated quantitative impacts on CO2 emissions, and the overall costs to Japanese society, of providing energy services through two energy pathways: a "Business As Usual" (BAU) scenario, in which current trends in the Japanese economy and power sector continue, and a "Power Switch" (PS) scenario, in which more aggressive transitions to non-fossil and low-carbon fuels are carried out in the Japanese power sector, accompanied by complementary aggressive implementation of energy efficiency measures geared to reduce electricity requirements.

Full report available here.

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APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to develop the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002, which contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) including the US, China, and Russia. The project is the major undertaking of the institute as mandated by the Energy Working Group of APEC.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Recent blackouts and high energy prices have highlighted the pressing need for long-term and interdisciplinary approaches to energy policy in California. This project presents a range of energy scenarios as a useful approach for visualizing and critically engaging with future possibilities. Developing a set of methods and energy scenarios for California, the project highlights scenario analysis as a systematic and exploratory way of thinking about energy from a long-term perspective. It aims to inspire critical discussion about energy choices in a way that is accessible and interesting to a broad base of stake-holders and decision-makers, and offers a starting point for considering alternative energy pathways for California.

A paper by Rebecca Ghanadan and John Koomey. Report available here.

Link to this Application.

The Nautilus Institute's East Asia Energy Futures project (EAEF) is collaborating with a network of regional energy researchers from the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, China, Japan, and the Russian Far East to produce a set of regional energy scenarios or "paths". The analyses will consider the national and regional energy security implications of a range of policies including international gas pipelines and LNG facilities, electricity transmission between countries, transport development, and the promotion of alternative fuels and energy efficiency. LEAP is being used by each group, both as a key common tool for scenario development, and also to promote transparency and data/results sharing between groups (2001-2002).

The project web site is located here

Link to this Application.

As part of the Indonesia-Netherlands Energy Working Group, the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) worked with the Indonesian Ministry of Mines and Energy to build its capacity for conducting integrated energy and environment planning. Initially, the work has focused on training staff of the Ministry about the basic concepts of integrated energy-environment analysis, using LEAP. Later, the team used LEAP to design and evaluate energy strategies for Indonesia and to assess the energy consumption and conservation potential of small sized enterprises.

Link to this Application.

This project, which was led by the then UNEP Collaborating Center on Energy and Environment (now the UNEP DTU Partnership) provided a methodology, an implementing framework and a reporting system for countries to follow in meeting their reporting obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The project comprised national studies in Argentina, Ecuador, Estonia, Hungary, Indonesia, Mauritius, Senegal and Vietnam, and parallel studies and regional studies in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Andean Group of countries. Many of the countries involved in this project used LEAP to conduct their greenhouse mitigation studies, and SEI provided training and follow-up support to these countries.

Full reports, describing their LEAP analyses, are available from the UNEP web site for the following countries:Argentina. Botswana. Ecuador, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia.

Related Links:

• Project Report

Link to this Application.

SEI and the then UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (now the the UNEP DTU Partnership), and counterparts in Venezuela and Sri Lanka collaborated on a two-year project to develop analytical methods for incorporating environmental considerations in major fuel choice decisions. The project resulted in the LEAP fuel chain program (available as part of LEAP for DOS) and case studies directed towards fuel policy decisions in Venezuela and Sri Lanka.

Project report available here.

Link to this Application.

The aim of the USCSP was to assist developing countries and countries with economies in transition in meeting their obligations under the UNFCCC. Countries participating in the USCSP focused on assessing the vulnerability of their climate sensitive sectors and resources and, to a lesser extent, opportunities for adaptation. The general approach prescribed by the program involved six steps: (1) define scope of assessment process, (2) select scenarios, (3) conduct biophysical and economic impact assessments, (4) integrate impact results, (5) analyze adaptation policies and programs, and (6) document and present results to decision makers. At the center of this process is the evaluation of biophysical effects.

As members of the US Country Studies (USCS) program Mitigation Experts Team, SEI provided training and support for greenhouse gas mitigation studies in Bolivia, Botswana, Cote D'Ivoire, Ecuador, Kenya, Mongolia, and Uganda. The activities, which were coordinated by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, included training and assistance for country teams in their applications of LEAP.

Link to this Application.

The National Environmental Protection Agency of China (NEPA) working with the UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) used LEAP in a study of long-term energy-environment scenarios for China. The study focused on policies for reducing the rate of growth in national SOx emissions. The project included three case studies: one of the national situation, one for Beijing city and one for Guanxhi province.

Report available here

Link to this Application.

Building on many years of collaboration with SEI, the Rural Wood Energy Development Programme(RWEDP) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN has adopted LEAP as a tool for organizing and analyzing biomass and rural energy issues. The tool has been distributed to focal points in 15 countries. A series of training seminars, centered on the use of the LEAP energy planning system, were conducted jointly by SEI and the RWEDP for participants from throughout the region. These have been used to improve awareness of biomass issues and build local analytical expertise.

An archive of the RWEDP site is available here.

Link to this Application.

Tellus Institute used LEAP as the analytical framework for a prominent national energy study: "America's Energy Choices" -- that identified the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy to provide long-term economic and environmental benefits.

Report available here.

Link to this Application.

The Tellus Institute and the Center for Transportation Research at the University of Texas at Austin, used LEAP in a study that developed estimates of the technical and economic potential for energy and energy cost savings in the Texas transportation sector.

Report available here

Link to this Application.

A groundbreaking study by Greenpeace International that examined the requirements for a global transition to a fossil-free energy future. A technical analysis used to support the study, was undertaken using LEAP.

Report available here.

Link to this Application.

In a project funded by the World Bank, we linked LEAP to standard air quality dispersion modeling tools (ISC) and to a GIS tool for display of results. The project produced a Chinese language version of LEAP for use in the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau (BMEPB) and elsewhere in China and also involved the integration of LEAP with SEI's other tools for water planning and solid waste management planning.

Link to this Application.

Under the direction of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, SEI used LEAP to prepare case studies of energy demand for agriculture in five countries: Cameroon, Mali, Sudan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (1996).

Report available here

Link to this Application.

Conducted as part of the long-term cooperative arrangement between the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and SEI, this project promioted sustainable and self-reliant energy and environmental planning in Southern African countries. It focused on four target areas: Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and the Technical and Administrative Unit (TAU) of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Programme activities included training workshops and collaborative studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe. SEI provided training in the use of LEAP and assistance with the formulation of national energy policies and master plans in both Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe from 1992-1993.

Link to this Application.

The Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) and local agencies collaborated with SEI to evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of selected national energy policy options (1993).

Link to this Application.

Mexico’s Special Climate Change Program—the Programa Especial de Cambio Climático (PECC), published in August 2009—sets Mexico’s long-term climate change agenda, together with medium-term goals for adaptation and mitigation.

The World Bank used LEAP to help create a new study called México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono (MEDEC) or "Low-carbon Development for Mexico". The study is intended to contribute to the implementation of Mexico’s long-term climate change agenda. The study, which was conducted by researchers based at the Centro de Investigación en Energía, evaluates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Mexico over the next 20 years. It evaluates low-carbon interventions across key emission sectors in Mexico using a common methodology. Based on the interventions evaluated, it develops a low-carbon scenario through 2030.

The study itself is available here in english and here in spanish.

The project web site is available here.

A LEAP dataset developed for this study is available here

A few notes about the dataset:

• The dataset was developed by CIE/UNAM
• The World Bank assumes no responsibility for the data.
• The dataset does not correspond to the final results of the study, since a number of changes and additions were made after the dataset was produced.

Link to this Application.

The EnergyScape project explores what New Zealand energy system might look like in 2030 and 2050. EnergyScape aims to test out current and emerging technologies in near future scenarios. Examples of technologies explored include electric vehicles, thin film photovoltaic cells, fuels from forests, pedestrianized cities, and smart electricity metering.

The EnergyScape platform, brings together a massive amount of data on production, distribution and conversion of energy into a tool which connects the different systems to each other and visualizes the results using LEAP. LEAP is used to allow people to create new scenarios and plug them together to create different visualizations of how New Zealand's energy landscape in the future.

The EnergyScape Web Site.

Link to this Application.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Mexico is preparing a study on the economics of climate change for Central American countries. These countries (Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize and Guatemala) produce less than 0.5% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, they are also especially vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Temperature change, sea level rise, changing rain-fall patterns and other impacts will have an increasingly negative impact on the economies, populations and ecosystems of the region.

ECLAC is using LEAP to estimate baseline emissions from Central America’s energy sector, and to calculate the benefits of GHG mitigation actions as part of this study.

ECLAC web site.

Link to this Application.

The Danish consulting company, RAMBOLL, used LEAP for a series of climate mitigation scenario studies. Most prominent is feasibility study for the city of Copenhagen to become CO2 neutral by 2025. Copenhagen is already perhaps the most energy efficient city in the World, in part due to its widespread use of efficient combined heat and power (CHP) systems for district heating system, its huge investments in wind power, and because nearly 40% of its citizens cycle to work or school every day.

RAMBOLL used LEAP to help create a plan for achieving Copenhagen's ambitious climate mitigation goals. The LEAP study formed the basis for Copenhagen deciding to become the climate capital of the world, achieving a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2015 compared to 2005 and becoming first capital in the world to be completely CO2 neutral by 2025.

Copenhagen's climate plan is available here. For more information, see an archived version of Copenhagen's climate web site.

RAMBOLL has also been using LEAP to help formulate climate action plans for other municipalities in Denmark including the city of Herning.

Link to this Application.

The 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO4) not only aims to provide policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the region up to the year 2035, but also to strongly involve all ASEAN Member States (AMS) in the process. The AEO4 will complement the implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025, thereby deriving strategies within ASEAN to address future energy needs.

The outlook covers all 10 members of the ASEAN region (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam).

The work was conducted by the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and used a combination of econometric and engineering based approaches for forecasting energy demands, using the Microfit econometric modeling system and LEAP.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Since the mid 1990s the Fundacion Bariloche (FB) has been helping organizations to apply LEAP as a tool for energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. FB has organized numerous capacity building workshops and conducted many energy and climate mitigation studies for Government agencies in the region. A highlight of these efforts has been the annual workshops held in the city of Bariloche, Argentina, which to date have trained almost 300 professionals from Latin America and the Caribbean about energy planning using LEAP.

Some examples of LEAP-related studies conducted by FB include:

1. Demand and supply projection for Peru (2001), the Dominican Republic (2003 and 2008), Argentina (2007), Colombia (2007).
2. Projections for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay conducted for OLADE (2005).
3. Climate change mitigation assessments for Argentina (2008), for the Electric Utility ENDESA (2008), El Salvador (2009), Nicaragua (2009) and Uruguay (2009).

The study conducted for the Dominican Republic in 2008 is available here.

For more information:http://www.fundacionbariloche.org.ar

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As the world’s most populous country and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China’s role is critical in combating global climate change.

As part of the project “Economics of Climate Change – Towards a Low-Carbon Economy in China”, a collaboration between the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the China Economists 50 Forum (CE50), researchers at SEI used LEAP to develop a technical analysis of how China’s energy systems might be altered over the coming four decades to allow China to meet ambitious goals for development and income growth at the same time as keeping GHG emissions within an overall budget that provides a reasonable chance of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C. The analysis developed a Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS) that examines the feasibility of massively reducing China’s CO2 emissions in 2050: with energy sector GHG emissions reduced to only 10% of the 2050 levels projected in the baseline scenario or about 85% of the level in 1990.

The CE50 Forum is an independent research forum made up of the most senior economists in China and is intended to act as a forum for researching and for presenting important issues related to China’s modernization, economic development and reform.

• A report describing the scenario analysis is available here.
  
• The project also resulted in a book edited by Lord Nick Stern and Prof. Fan Gang: "The Economics of Climate Change in China", which includes a chapter describing the scenario analysis. The book was named #11 on the list “2010 Top 40 Sustainability Books”, and is available for purchase from Amazon.

• The LEAP dataset used in this study is available here

Link to this Application.

Science is unambiguously telling us that even 2°C of warming would be highly dangerous for our planet. This report examines how Europe can show leadership in keeping global climate change within these limits: firstly, by undertaking domestic actions to rapidly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and secondly, by fulfilling its international obligations to help other countries address the twin crises of climate change and development.

The report first analyzes how Europe can embark on a transition to a low GHG future – enabling it to achieve GHG emissions reductions of 40% in 2020 and 90% in 2050 relative to 1990 levels through a combination of radical improvements in energy efficiency, the accelerated retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic shift toward various types of renewable energy forms.

Next, the report assesses Europe’s international obligations for assisting the world’s developing nations make a transition to a low-GHG future by using the Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs) framework as a basis for assessing fair contributions to a global climate effort.

The report, which was developed in partnership with Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE), was published on December 1st, 2009. The main report, a summary of the report by Friends of the Earth, a press release, media briefing and other materials are all available here.

A LEAP data set containing the scenarios for 27 EU countries is available here

Link to this Application.

This report identified promising opportunities to support greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea. It projected future “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios, assembled existing estimates of mitigation potential, and assessed barriers and opportunities concerning reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in each country. The report focused particular attention on policies, measures, and/or technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation, buildings, industry, and electricity production sectors.

Fulll report, available here, was prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by SEI and used LEAP in its preparation of baseline scenarios for each country.

Link to this Application.

As part of the ongoing decentralization of autonomy in Indonesia, regional governments are becoming increasingly responsible for setting energy policies. CASINDO aims to contribute to this process by establishing a self-sustaining and self-developing structure that will enable sound policies for renewable energy and energy efficiency at both the national and regional levels of Indonesia. CASINDO has been developed in close collaboration between eight Indonesian partners and the Dutch Government Agency AgentschapNL as part of bilateral energy co-operation between the two countries. It is coordinated by the Dutch foundation ECN and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and will run from 2009 through to 2011. The program involves activities both at the national level and in the provinces of Central Java, North Sumatra, West Nusa Tenggara, Yogyakarta and Papua. One key activity is building capacity among national and regional agencies to use of LEAP for energy planning. To this end, a series of LEAP training workshops have been conducted and teams are now engaged in the development of national and regional LEAP models.

CASINDO web site: www.casindo.info

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In August 2008, Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts signed into law the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA), making Massachusetts one of the first states in the nation to move forward with a comprehensive regulatory program to address Climate Change. The GWSA requires Massachusetts to set economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals that will achieve GHG reductions of:

• between 10 percent and 25 percent below 1990 GHG emissions levels by 2020.
• 80 percent below statewide 1990 GHG emission levels by 2050.

In 2009, the State chose a team lead by the The Eastern Research Group (ERG) and including staff from Synapse Energy Economics, SEI, Abt Associates and Cambridge Systematics to provide support to the GWSA process. The team used LEAP to develop a new set of energy and climate mitigation plans for the State that examine how the 2020 and 2050 goals can best be met.

This work culminated in the publication, in late 2010 of the Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 which details how the Commonwealth will comply with that limit. The limit for 2020 has been set to 25 percent below 1990 levels, the maximum authorized by the GWSA.

For more information see:

• Story in the New York Times.
• The Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 (Full Report).
• The MASS DEP web site.

Link to this Application.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Honduras has designed an energy policy extending to 2030 which was modeled using LEAP. The analysis included two scenarios, one baseline and one "desired." The main objectives included a reduction in the the use of firewood, decreasing consumption from 42% in 2008 to 21% in 2030. The "desired" scenario also proposes the introduction of hybrid and electric cars, with the aim of having a more energy efficient transport sector.

The study is available here in Spanish. If you reference this report, please cite accordingly.

For other questions, please contact the National Project Coordinator, Mr. Wilfredo César Flores, at dgeper@yahoo.com.

Link to this Application.

The Program of Environmental Management and Economics at the University of Chile has completed a study "Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Chile: Background for the Development of a Regulatory Framework and Evaluation of Reduction Strategies". The study included projections of GHG emissions in Chile from 2007-2030 and evaluations of alternative policy options. The study used LEAP to examine fossil fuel emissions in the transport and energy sectors, and also included an exploration of emissions from industrial processes, land-use change and forestry.

Full report is available here in Spanish and English.

Questions or comments should be directed to Manuel Díaz R. at the University of Chile.

Link to this Application.

The National Meteorological Service of Jamaica presents a greenhouse gas mitigation assessment covering projections of selected GHGs over the period of 2009 to 2035. Guided by Jamaica's National Development plan, Vision 2030, and the National Energy Policy: 2009 - 2030, the team used LEAP to model 3 scenarios: a reference scenario and two mitigation policy scenarios. Vision 2030 includes 4 national goals, 15 national outcomes and over 50 national strategies aimed at putting Jamaica in position to achieve developed country status by the year 2030.

• Executive Sumary
• Full Report
• Additional information and documents can be found on the Jamaica Met Service Website

Link to this Application.

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to help develop the 4th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook in 2009. The report contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

A greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation assessment was carried out for the Commonwealth of Dominica for the period 2000 to 2030. The LEAP model was used to estimate GHG emissions for three scenarios – a Reference Scenario and two other scenarios (S2 and S3) characterised primarily by increasingly aggressive mitigation measures to reduce the energy demand in the residential and transportation sectors and making use of Dominica’s abundant (relative to demand requirements) geothermal energy for electricity generation. Scenarios S2 and S3 entail the use of hybrid vehicles (i.e. S2Hyb and S3Hyb with hybrid vehicles accounting for up to 30% of the fleet in 2030 depending on the vehicle class). Scenarios S3 and S3Hyb include the export of electricity (produced by geothermal energy) to the neighbouring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Full report available here.

For any other questions, please contact Collin Guiste or Claude Davis.

Link to this Application.

This report by the Bellona Foundation identifies three possible pathways Greece may take to respond to its emission mitigation challenge through 2050: No deployment of CCS, Constrained deployment and Full deployment. The latter scenario delivers not only the deepest emission cuts, but also the lowest electricity production costs. Combining a full deployment of CCS with biomass co-firing with coal allows the Greek power sector to become carbon-negative by 2040.

The report made use of scenarios developed using LEAP.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Executed by the national Ministry of Environment, Lebanon's Second National Communication to the UNFCCC has been completed and now is available online. The mitigation chapter explores a basline scenario and two mitigation scenarios modeled within LEAP out to they year 2030.

The first mitigation scenario looks at 11% penetration of renewable energy by 2030 and a target of 66% natural gas fuel mix while the second mitigation scenario explores an increase in the penetration rate of renewables (17% by 2030) and a full switch from oil-fired power plants to natural gas by 2030.

The communication can be found online here.

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Cities are home to half the world's population, consume over two-thirds of the world's energy, and account for more than 70 percent of global CO2 emissions, and several cities are now seeking to become leaders in mitigating climate change.

In February 2010, the Seattle City Council adopted the goal of making the city carbon-neutral. To that end, the Seattle Office of Sustainability and Environment (OSE) asked SEI and its partners Cascadia Consulting Group and ICF International to develop a carbon-neutral scenario for the city.

The team used LEAP to examine a suite of emissions-reducing strategies that could cut Seattle's per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2020, 60% by 2030, and 90% by 2050, relative to 2008 levels. The scenario entails:

• Shifting to less GHG-intensive travel modes such as ride sharing, transit, walking and biking,
• Dramatically increasing energy efficiency in buildings and vehicles, and
• Transitioning homes, businesses, and vehicles to lower-carbon energy sources: electricity (or possibly hydrogen) in the long run, biofuels as a bridging strategy for transportation, and to a much lesser extent, sustainable biomass sources (for district energy systems).

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Developed in collaboration with The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) and the National ESSPA Project teams from 10 member states of ASEAN, the ASEAN Centre for Energy published the third ASEAN Energy Outlook.

The outlook used the GDP growth targets of the 10 member states in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, and analyzed the impact of the energy saving goals and action plans in the primary energy demand and CO2 emissions which termed as Alternative Policy Scenario (APS).

The Outlook used a combination of econometric and engineering based approaches for forecasting energy demands, using the MICROFIT Econometric Modeling System and LEAP.

The full report is available here. For more information, please contact Beni Suryadi.

Link to this Application.

Though the challenge is great, the energy and sustainability scenarios in this report show that this challenge can be met. The report describes a series of global energy and sustainability scenarios played out to 2050 for the planet divided into 22 regions. The report also explores how to successfully implement change, via case studies of energy transformation and reviews of policy mechanisms and governance frameworks.

The scenarios in the report were developed in LEAP as a transparent and open source global energy model. This model will shortly be made freely available here for download and use within LEAP.

• The project web site is available here.


• The full report is available here.


• A LEAP dataset containing the 22 region global energy model baseline scenario is available here .

Link to this Application.

The work packages in the project include evaluation of available data and information, choice and implementation of models, develpment of national level scenarios, evaluation of policy portfolios, prioritization of research gaps and needs and training dissemination.

The overall strategy is based on development, implementation, evaluation, and knowledge transfer aimed at scientists and decision makers in both the public and private sectors.

As part of the project a comprehensive review of modeling tools was conducted, with LEAP being clearly judged as the most suitable, particularly due to its transparency, ease-of-use, low data requirements, flexibility, low cost and overall credibility. The full model review is available here.

Folowing its selection as the main tool for mitigation modeling in the project, a series of training workshops have been held to build capacity among organizations in the target countries. Those organizations have subsequntly been using LEAP, with assistance from the University of Athens in Greece and the Institute for Advanced Studies in Austria, to develop climate mitigation scenarios and policy portfolios.

PROMITHEAS web site

Link to this Application.

The main components of the SNC are integrated vulnerability and adaptation assessments;identification of national circumstances that affect the assessments; conduct of a green house inventory; mitigation exercises; and identification of challenges experienced by various sectors, and lessons learned.

The output of the Initial National Communication was considered against the background of emerging development challenges and the impact of weather systems on key sectors of the economy. In addition, the vulnerability of key physical, social and economic sectors and the consequences of these impacts on sustainable national development weighed heavily in selecting the sectors for the assessments. These analyses, along with the wider vulnerability of Small Island Developing States, generally led to the selection of agriculture, coastal sector, critical infrastructure, disasters, financial services, forest and marine biodiversity, health, human settlements and Tourism as the sectors of interest in this assessment.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Jamaica's Second National Communication (SNC) includes GHG inventories for 2000-05 (and reference year (2000), prepared using the updated 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines. The SNC also assesses climate change impacts for the key sectors of health, human settlements, and tourism, in addition to revisiting agriculture, water, and coastal zones, for the years 2015, 2030, and 2050.

Although not required as a non-Annex I Party, Jamaica’s SNC also includes an assessment of potential mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions over 2009 to 2030 that will, just as importantly, improve energy efficiency.

Finally, other activities in support of the Convention, such as awareness raising, a review of the national systematic observation systems, and a technology needs assessment, are also described.

Link to this Application.

The presentation of the Fourth National Communication of Mexico to the United Nations Framework United Nations on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reflects growing concern for understanding and addressing the major challenge from climate change facing developing societies around the world today.

Full report here.

Link to this Application.

This report provides an update on national emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, adaptation actions undertaken to deal with climate change impacts, and mitigation of GHG emissions.

Senegal is perpetually confronted with the adverse effects of climate change because of its long coastline of 700 km, which suffers from the impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into agricultural land, salinization of water resources and the destruction of infrastructure.

Due to its rainfed agriculture, climate disruption may undermine efforts to fight against poverty and the objective of achieving self-sufficiency in food.

Today, the adverse effects of climate change are real and shared by all: natural disasters are increasingly frequent and devastating, and developing countries are increasingly vulnerable. Climate change’s adverse effects are most severely felt by people the least developed countries.

It is now essential to integrate adaptation measures into strategies for development if we are to effectively combat the impact of climate change on the living conditions of people. That is why the Ministry for the Environment included this dimension, as the main focus of its sectoral policies.

Full report here.

Link to this Application.

The very first LEAP-based study, now (partially) available on Google Books.

Partially scanned book available here.

Link to this Application.

The UNDP's Low Emission Capacity Building Programme (LECB) is a five-year global initiative to support national climate change mitigation efforts, low emission development strategies and enhanced measuring, reporting and verification systems for greenhouse gases in developing nations.

As of March 2012, 25 developing countries are participating in the program: Argentina, Bhutan, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Peru, The Philippines, Tanzania, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Uganda, Vietnam, and Zambia.

The LECB programme aims to strengthen capacities in participating countries by:

• Developing greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory management systems
• Identifying opportunities for nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA)
• Designing low emission development strategies (LEDS) in the context of national priorities
• Designing systems for measuring, reporting, and verification of proposed actions and means to reduce GHG emissions
• Facilitating the design and adoption of mitigation actions by selected industries in some countries

SEI has been assisting UNDP with the implementation of the programme. In 2012, SEI was commissioned by UNDP to develop data sets for 22 of the countries participating in the LECB for use within SEI’s LEAP software. These data sets include historical data (from 1990-2009) as well as a first draft baseline scenario to 2040, and a suggested structure for mitigation assessment. They are intended to serve as a starting point for the analyses of the developing country experts involved in the LECB project, and will be used in a technical workshop to be held in Marrakech, Morocco in October 2012.

The LECB Programme is funded by the European Commission, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), and the government of Australia (DCCEE and AusAID).

LECB brochure

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Climate, water and energy are intricately linked, so choices in any one sector can often reverberate across the others. To achieve the best possible outcomes, policy-makers need to understand cross-sector interactions and tradeoffs – the so-called ‘nexus’. This requires new tools for integrated analysis.

Seeking to meet this need, SEI has built a link between its water and energy decision support systems, which are already used in policy-making and planning around the world: the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. The integrated tools allow users to model evolving conditions in both waterand energy systems and examine cross-sectoral impacts of different policy choices.

The value of such integrated analyses is demonstrated here by a case study of the implications of meeting 10% of Southern California’s water demand through 2049 with desalinated seawater. By linking a WEAP model of the U.S. Southwest with a LEAP model of California,the study was able to quantify the impact on water imports, electricity demand from the watersector, and greenhouse-gas emissions.

The WEAP model shows that in normal water years, desalination reduces the need for waterimports by about 300 million cubic meters per year. However, integration of climate projections shows significant variations between dry and wet years, and LEAP shows desalination increases the water sector’s electricity use by about 3 terawatt-hours per year, and emissions, by 1.4 million tonnes of CO2e per year.

• Project policy brief
• WEAP web site

Link to this Application.

India is both the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and home to the largest population of the world's poor. Climate policy for India must therefore include a strong element of inclusive growth, implying that reducing conditions of deprivation must go hand in hand with reducing overall emissions. A low carbon inclusive growth strategy for India is developed in this study using a transparent, bottom-up scenario modelling effort. The study shows that it is possible for India to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 and also provide modern energy services to more than half its population who are currently unserved or under-served in this regard. This would entail having to focus on providing energy services to at least the bottom 50 million or so households by providing LPG or advanced electric cookstoves where feasible, access to electricity for lighting, water, sanitation services, improved access to services in urban areas (involving changes in land-use and transport), improved agricultural services, and so on. At the same time, commitments would be required to improve efficiency across the board and increase penetration of renewable energy in electricity generation and to make efforts to shift transport, housing and industry towards more sustainable models.

There are indications that this strategy could provide numerous co-benefits apart from reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving access to clean energy for the poor. These include reduced local air pollution, improved lifestyles and a more productive workforce.

• Full Report: Long-Term Energy and Development Pathways For India

• LEAP Data Set: IndiaEnergyScenarios2014.leap

• Email Contact:scrajan@iitm.ac.in

• IGCS Web site

Link to this Application.

The term “green growth”and “low emissions development strategies” have become increasingly common in discussions of climate change policy in developing countries. Though studies for a number of countries have been conducted, virtually none address the role of fossil fuel extraction in green growth or LEDS. Working with three ministries of the Government of Mongolia and a team of local partner organizations; and with funding from the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), SEI recently conducted a scenario analysis of alternative energy scenarios for Mongolia, including what role Mongolia’s energy exports might play in fulfilling future Asian energy needs, whilst also examining the implications of green growth planning for these important sectors of the Mongolian economy.

Full report available here

Mongolia LEAP data set available here

Link to this Application.

Developed by the Massachusetts Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) with support from Abt Associates, this report is an update to the Clean Energy and Climate Plan initially released in 2010 pursutant to the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2008 (GWSA). Massachusetts remains a nationally recognized leader in combating climate change, and the Update presents the policies upon which the State Government will rely to ensure that the Commonwealth is positioned to meet the emissions reductions goals of the GWSA.

The update, like the initial report was again based on scenario analyses developed within LEAP. It emphasizes initiatives that address energy challenges that face residents and businesses in the state, and indicates that a GHG emissions reduction of at least 25% is attainable by 2020. The report states that full implementation will set the Commonwealth on course for a sustained, vibrant state economy with environmentally responsible economic growth for decades to come.

Full Report available here

Link to this Application.

Africa is experiencing a massive flow of people into urban areas. This is happening in major urban centres such as Lagos, Accra and Dar es Salaam – but it's also happening in less well-known, smaller, secondary cities.

Supporting African Municipalities in Sustainable Energy Transitions (SAMSET), is a four-year project that began in 2013. Its aim is to address sustainable energy transitions in African cities. It provides practical planning and implementation support to municipalities to manage future energy planning in a sustainable manner.

The project involves six cities in western, eastern and southern Africa: Ga East and Awutu Senya East in Ghana, Kasese and Jinja in Uganda, and Cape Town and Polokwane in South Africa. Research and support organisations in each country and the UK were involved as well.

SAMSET modelled the urban energy systems of each of these cities using LEAP.

SAMSET web site here.

Link to this Application.

Conducted over a two year period from 2013 to 2015, this project supported by the Asian Development Bank and carried out by Abt Associates with support from SEI, sought to increase the availability of information on the options and costs for reducing GHG emissions and reduce the negative effects of climate change in Central and West Asia.

LEAP was used as the main modeling tool for the project, and it was applied to analyze the costs and benefits of mitigation options - in the energy and transport sectors of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The effectiveness of options was assessed in terms of GHG abatement, and net social costs and benefits. The potential interactions between mitigation options were assessed in a range of scenarios. The study was complemented by a capacity development program for energy and transport experts in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan focused on analyzing mitigation scenarios using the national models developed during the study.

Summary report available here or via the ADB web site.

Also available are the resulting LEAP data sets for:

• Azerbaijan
• Kazakhstan
• Uzbekistan

Link to this Application.

CLIMACAP was a three-year effort financed by the European Commission, that ran from 2012 to 2015. The project was led by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and supported by SEI, and other leading European and Latin-American universities, think-tanks and institutes.

The project strengthened modelling capacity to support the climate change mitigation strategies of key Latin American countries and regional groupings, and generated cross-model comparison analyses and scenarios up to 2050 that focus on issues such as the economic impacts of policy measures, mitigation costs and potentials, and costs and pathways for reaching specific emission reductions.

The project collaborated closely with LAMP: The Latin American Modeling Project, which was funded by the US Government, and which involved leading US-based energy and climate change modeling institutions.

The main output from the project was a series of papers published in the journal Energy Economics on Climate Policy in Latin America. A range of different models and analytical tools were employed during the project including LEAP, and LEAP models were developed for Argentina, Colombia and Mexico.

Outputs:

• CLIMACAP Flyer available here.
• Climate and Energy Policy Reviews of Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil are available here.
• The CLIMACAP/LAMP scenarios database is available here.

Link to this Application.

The Paris UNFCCC Conference of Parties in late 2015 was the culmination of years of effort by countries to develop and submit their commitments to take action on climate change. The resulting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were the foundation of the historic Paris climate agreement, demonstrating countries’ intent to begin decarbonizing their economies and invest in climate-resilience. The Paris agreement set an ambitious goal of peaking GHG emissions as soon as possible, and rapidly decarbonizing thereafter with ambition to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. And while the current set of NDCs fall well short of that goal, many observers viewed the Paris meeting as a major step forward toward that goal.

NDCs were submitted by 188 countries (parties) representing 98.6% of current global GHG emissions. At least 32 countries used LEAP to create energy and emissions scenarios that were the basis for their NDC commitments, including: Armenia, Albania, Azerbaijan, Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Cambodia, Ecuador, Federated States of Micronesia, Ghana, Haiti, Iraq, Israel, Jamaica, Lebanon, Liberia, Mauritania, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Palau, Philippines, Serbia, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The focus of efforts after Paris will be on how to operationalize these goals. Parties will need to turn their NDCs into implementable actions that achieve transformational impacts. Many countries will require support to achieve their ambitions, and SEI expects LEAP and LEAP-related capacity building efforts to continue to play an important role in supporting countries as they build their capabilities to create Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS).

All submitted INDCs are publicly accessible via the The UNFCCC submission portal.

Link to this Application.

Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) are pollutants that have a relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere – a few days to a few decades – and a warming influence on the climate. The main short-lived climate pollutants are black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). SLCPs are also a major cause of air pollution, causing impacts on human health, agriculture and ecosystems.

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC) was launched by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2012 to help coordinate action among a coalition of countries and non-state actors that wish to take voluntary actions to rapidly reduce in SLCPs. As of early 2016 the CCAC has 46 country partners plus the European Union, and numerous non-state partner organizations. The CCAC has a comprehensive range of sectoral initiatives in 11 key areas, aimed at reducing emissions from diesel use, brick kilns, the oil and gas sector, cook stoves, agriculture, HFCs, and waste management. It also has a number of cross-cutting initiatives including one aimed at Supporting National Action Planning on SLCPs (SNAP).

The SNAP initiative aims to support and build capacity for rapid and large-scale implementation of SLCP mitigation at the national level, by helping governments assess the scale of the SLCP issue and the potential for mitigation and to plan implementation of measures and monitoring and evaluation of progress with SLCP actions.

A key element of the SNAP initiative is the development of suitable analytical assessment tools. The CCAC therefore asked SEI to develop a new tool based on a combination of LEAP and a new modeling tool, based on the global GeosChem-Adjoint atmospheric model, that can provide national planners with quantitative estimates of the impacts of SLCP pollution and the multiple benefits of emission reductions. A key requirement of the new tool is that it should be practically usable in countries by planners with only moderate levels of modeling expertise and in situations where data is limited and of poor quality.

The resulting tool, known as the Impacts Benefits Calculator (IBC) was tested by teams in Mexico, Ghana, Bangladesh, Colombia, Estonia, Ghana and Latin America. The finalized IBC tool is now distributed as an integral part of LEAP.

Link to this Application.

Countries all over the world, including developing ones like the Philippines, are searching for a balanced solution to climate change that sustains robust economic growth while improving resource efficiency and economic resilience.

USAID's B-LEADERS project aims to contribute to increasing climate resilience and mitigation in the Philippines. It will enhance the capacity of the Government of the Philippines and its key partners to plan, design and implement low emission development strategies (LEDS) and will contribute to the formulation of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in the power, transport, and land use sectors.

Activities in the project include:

• Strengthening Capacity for Low Emission Development: by providing technical assistance to institutionalize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories and by developing a state-of-the-art LEDS toolkit featuring scenario-based models. B-LEADERS aims to translate national policies and strategies into concrete and sustained activities at both national and local government levels and give high priority to community outreach and country-wide dissemination of climate information.
• Increased Investments into Clean Energy Projects: B-LEADERS aims to advance the growth of investments in the clean energy sector, by supporting project developers and clean energy investment, and by streamlining business process to help reduce transaction costs and delays.

The B-Leaders project is led by Engility with support from The Stockholm Environment Institute and other international and Philippino institutions. SEI is playing multiple roles in the project, including supporting the Philippine Climate Change Commission and Department of Energy, to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of climate mitigation options in the country's energy sector. The outputs of this effort informed the Philippines' Nationally Determined Contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement. This analysis was conducted using a new national LEAP model for the Philippines, which provides a synopsis of national GHG emissions and mitigation opportunities, and their costs and benefits.

SEI is also supporting the Department of Energy and regional governments to develop regional energy plans using LEAP. We are also collaborating with the Mindanao Development Authority on a study of integrated water and energy sector management in Mindanao: a region that is highly dependent on hydropower and vulnerable to the changing climate. The study seeks to quantify the potential impact of climate change on hydropower availability and to assess what climate mitigation options therefore make sense as the climate changes. This work is being conducted using and integrated modeling approach that joins SEI's LEAP model to its Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system.

A common theme in the B-LEADERS work is to build capacity for modeling and mitigation analysis among national and regional government agencies. To this end, SEI has conducted training workshops in Manilla, Mindanao and Cebu City for key national and regional agencies and stakeholders, such as the Climate Change Commission, Department of Energy, Department of Transportation and Communications, and the Mindanao Development Authority.

B-Leaders web site available here (archived copy).

Link to this Application.

GREAT: The Green Resources & Energy Analysis Tool is a LEAP modeling template designed by the China Energy Group of the Lawrenece Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in Berkeley, California. It is intended to helps cities in China in exploring and identifying potential energy and emission reduction opportunities and to create action plans for low carbon development. GREAT includes a national average dataset on energy input parameters for residential, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture end-use sectors, that can be quickly adapted for use in different Chinese cities.

GREAT also includes a separate energy transformation module with specific power sector parameters such as installed generation capacity. Users such as energy policy analysts and researchers can customize the model to a given Chinese city or region by entering detailed actual and/or projected information for technologies within each sector. The user-friendly LEAP interface then allow users to assess current and future key energy and carbon emissions drivers in detail from the perspectives of economic sectors, end-use technologies and fuels. LEAP and GREAT help local Chinese governments to develop their city's GHG inventory; generate future energy and emissions baseline scenarios, evaluate the impact of alternative mitigation policies and develop targets and action plans.

Overview of GREAT available here.

GREAT User Manual in Chinese available here.

Link to this Application.

While Morocco is still 90% dependent on external sources of energy, iin recent years it has made great progress with its energy policies. According to the International Energy Agency, achievements include extending energy access to nearly all of its population, opening up the power sector and oil market to international investors, diversifying its electricity fuel mix, and accelerating the deployment of wind and solar power, and energy efficiency.

With funding from UNEP and GIZ, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) has been working with Morocco’s Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water, and Environment to further enhance its capacity for long-term energy and climate mitigation planning through application of SEI's LEAP software. Following an initial LEAP training, the SEI and Moroccan teams have been conducting joint model development exercises focused on constructing a national LEAP. The resulting model includes a baseline scenario through 2050 and several mitigation scenarios for the energy sector. The model includes detailed coverage of the power sector and has been validated using local survey data and comparisons with other international and national modeling efforts (including an in-depth study of the Moroccan power sector being conducted by the German Aerospace Center and GIZ)

Anticipated future activities include developing scenarios for the next Moroccan national energy strategy and the recently announced German-Moroccan energy partnership and contributing to Morocco’s forthcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) – to the next major international climate conference (COP22), which will be held in Marrakech, Morocco in November 2016.

Link to this Application.

This roadmap defines a strategic vision to deploy sustainable biofuel and biomass technologies in Colombia for the period 2015-2030. It was elaborated using an energy-economy-emissions modeling framework with experienced advice from over 30 bioenergy experts from government, academia, industry and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The roadmap identifies barriers to bioenergy deployment and recommends strategies, plans and policies to deploy biofuel and biomass technologies in Colombia. It also outlines actions needed to accomplish the proposed goals.

The impacts of achieving the roadmap goals were quantified in a modeling framework that addresses energy, economy, emissions and land-use change interactions by combining an energy system model and a land-use and trade model. The energy system modeling was built within LEAP, which was coupled with a land-use and trade model that estimates land allocation as well as production, imports and exports for 18 agricultural and forestry commodities. The land-use modeling assumes that the fundamental driver of land-use and trade is the maximization of the profit perceived by local actors (i.e. local producers and importers). Competition is considered at three levels: food vs. biofuels, residues for energy vs. other uses and local production vs. imports. The LUTM model was built in Microsoft Excel and uses the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) nonlinear algorithm to perform optimizations.

Authors: Gonzalez-Salazar, M.A,; Ventuirini, M.; Poganletz, W.R.; Finkenrath, M.; Kirsten, T.’ Acevedo, H.

Full report available here.

Paper based on the report in the journal Applied Energy available here (free download until Aug 7, 2016).

Link to this Application.

The Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR) in partnership with the Heinrich Böll Foundation (North Africa Office) produced this study, which is the first publicly accessible, modeled and civil society-analyzed scenario for the Egyptian electrical sector. Through engaging with stakeholders and a participatory drafting process, the project assessed seven different options for how Egypt’s electricity sector could develop between 2015-2035.

The study described each pathway in terms of its costs, greenhouse gas emissions, job creation effects, impacts of pollution and infrastructure requirements. The pathways are based on a vision for Egypt to develop sustainably, creating stable jobs, building the capacity of communities to generate their own sources of clean energy, reducing the environmental impacts from generating energy – such as air, water and land pollution – and ensuring that Egypt is well placed to be self sufficient in meeting its energy needs.

The study shows that Egypt has the potential to build a large energy efficiency industry that creates thousands of jobs, reduces the total demand for electricity, brings citizens’ bills down, costs less for the government to implement (versus current policies) and which reduces the country’s greenhouse gas emissions footprint.

The seven pathways studied, which were analyzed using LEAP, were:

1. Business as Usual with Efficiency Measures (BAU)
2. Business as Usual with Coal (BAU+COAL)
3. Towards Zero Carbon with Natural Gas (TZC)
4. Towards Zero Carbon with Nuclear (TZC+NUCLEAR)
5. Towards Zero Carbon with Concentrated Solar Power (TZC+CSP)
6. Towards Energy Independence (TEI)
7. Towards Decentralized Energy (TDE)

The study assesses nuclear energy for example, and finds it to not be a viable part of a future energy mix for Egypt; where it concludes nuclear to be the most expensive pathway available, costing 23.7 billion USD, and potentially posing extreme risks to human lives and the environment in Egypt.

• Full Report
• The Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR)
• The Heinrich Böll Foundation

Link to this Application.

With support from the Energy Foundation and many additional foundations and individuals, the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), the Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI) and the China Energy Group of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) undertook a major study - Reinventing Fire: China, which provides an innovative energy roadmap to 2050 in which China meets its energy needs and improves its energy security and environmental quality using the maximum feasible share of cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy supply.

The analysis demonstrates these benefits in spite of using a conservative approach:

• It includes only commercially available, cost-effective technologies and autonomous technological improvements (future breakthroughs in technology are not included in the analysis),
• CO2 emissions are not explicitly priced (despite China’s pilot carbon emission trading schemes and commitment to commence a national trading scheme during the 13th Five-Year Plan period), and
• External economic benefits such as public health and environmental quality are not included in cost calculations.

The study examined two distinct pathways:

• A Reference Scenario: in which only policies in place in 2010 continue to have effect and autonomous technological improvement occurs.
• The Reinventing Fire Scenario: in which the maximum feasible shares of commercially available, cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy supply are adopted.

The study leverages scientific models and incorporates over 75 real-world case studies to calibrate assumptions. Over 1,000 off-the-shelf measures to reduce energy and/or carbon were considered. A distinguished advisory panel of 14 leading Chinese energy experts acted as advisers, and numerous additional Chinese experts in leading ministries, think tanks, associations, and universities provided input and scientific review. Prominent international experts also reviewed the results. LEAP served as one of the key analytical tools in helping to formulate the scenarios developed in the study.

• Executive summary
• Full report

Link to this Application.

The transport sector in Medellín, Colombia contributes to climate change through GHG emissions, and it has been the target of public interventions to improve quality of life and reduce CO2 emissions. The Medellin metropolitan area in Colombia has developed a mass transportation system called Metro de Medellin that integrates train lines, a tram line, BRTs, gondola lift systems, escalators, a bicycle-sharing system and hybrid buses to reduce traffic and CO2 emissions. Despite these efforts, pollution is peaking, and the situation requires new plans.

This paper quantifies the emissions that could be avoided by the implementation of Medellin’s Master Plan, the promotion of telecommuting, and the development of a transport energy model for Medellin metropolitan area between 2010 and 2040. The results indicate that a policy combining the promotion of mass transportation and telecommuting could represent 5.65 Million Tons of CO2 equivalent avoided by 2040 (a 9.4% reduction) and an estimated total energy savings of 86,575.55 TJ.

The analysis, which was conducted with the help of a model developed within LEAP find that it is necessary to implement complementary policies in order to achieve the commitment assumed by Colombia at the COP 21. The analytical framework employed could also be applied to other regions to evaluate environmental and energy mitigation strategies.

The photo shows part of the Gondola system in Medellín. Medellín was the first city in the world to use gondolas for public transit, and also the first to use escalators in a residential neighborhood.

Authors: Juan Esteban Martínez-Jaramillo, Santiago Arango-Aramburo, Karla C. Álvarez-Uribe, Patricia Jaramillo-Alvarez

Photo Credit: Barbara J. Miner/ Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

• Full Paper available here.

Link to this Application.

Clean energy technologies offer an historic opportunity to build an energy future that produces large consumer, economic, and climate benefits. EnergyVision 2030 developed by the Acadia Center shows how, by redoubling existing efforts in four key areas, New York and the six New England states can accelerate this transition and achieve a modern, low-emissions energy future.

Clean energy technologies offer an historic opportunity to build an energy future that produces large benefits: modernization of our energy systems, better options for all consumers to control energy costs, advanced economic growth, and dramatically reduced climate pollution. Numerous studies show that by leading on clean energy innovation states can save residents and businesses money, keep more energy dollars in the region, grow the workforce, and secure a healthier future. As a result, Northeast states are making commitments to build a clean energy future, and as they do, questions arise: what impact will current efforts to expand clean energy resources have over time? Where can we do more to advance this future? What amount of clean energy is needed to adequately reduce carbon pollution and meet current emissions targets?

EnergyVision 2030 analyzes these questions by taking a comprehensive look at where efforts to expand clean energy resources can lead, how consumer adoption and market penetration rates can grow, and what increases in clean energy efforts are needed to attain state and regional emissions goals.

EnergyVision 2030 data show that progress is being made and with further strategic action, expanding adoption of modern, market ready technologies can reduce climate pollution emissions 45% by 2030: a target needed to put the region on the path to meet scientifically directed emissions reductions of 80% by 2050. This is a goal most of the Northeast states have made a commitment to in some form. By acting now to reform outdated rules and financial incentives that still encourage investments in old and expensive energy choices and taking steps to facilitate consumer adoption and remove barriers, the region can benefit all residents and achieve its climate commitments.

EnergyVision 2030 suggests one pathway to advance adoption of clean energy technologies in four core areas—grid modernization, electric generation, buildings, and transportation—and demonstrates that even relatively modest increases of clean energy technologies can significantly reduce emissions while delivering consumer and economic benefits for all.

Modeling for EnergyVision 2030 was conducted using LEAP supplemented by external modeling as needed.

• Main EnergyVision 2030 web site.
• EnergyVision 2030 Methodology.
• Acadia Center web site.

Link to this Application.

The Argentine Energy Scenarios Platform is an initiative promoted by the Avina Foundation, the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation (FARN), the Center for Studies on Energy Regulatory Activity of the University of Buenos Aires (CEARE), and the Buenos Aires Technological Institute (ITBA).

It is based on a commitment to facilitate a public debate on the energy future of Argentina and to generate space for a dialog that encourages a long-term vision of the country's energy future.

With the help of LEAP, a series of scenarios were elaborated by all of the "scenaristas" involved in the project. They present benefits in economic, social and environmental terms relative to a baseline scenario realized by an Executive Committee. All the scenarios show a marked expansion of renewable energy, while some also explore the role of expanded nuclear generation and the role of non-conventional hydrocarbons. In some scenarios, opportunities are identified for promoting innovation strategies, such as strengthening cogeneration or increasing the use of biogas.

The platform demonstrates the need for long-term planning and shows a commitment to build a sustainable energy future for Argentina. The platform supports a dialog on these issues and helps to increase technical rigor - qualities needed for the formulation of a long-term energy plan.

• Platforma Escenarios Enegerticos Argentina (Archived web site)
• Scenarios Platform Report (in Spanish)

Link to this Application.

BUENAS is an end use energy demand projection model implemented within LEAP and developed and maintained by the International Energy Studies Group (IES) of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) with support from the CollaborativeLabeling and Appliance Standards Program (CLASP), the International Copper Association (ICA)and the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).

The main objective of BUENAS is to estimate energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions potential both globally and by country through 2030 from energy efficiency programs. It models energy demand by various types of energy consuming equipment and aggregates the results to the end use, sector or national level. The current version of BUENAS covers 13 major national economies accounting for 80% of global energy demand and covering 15 building and industrial appliances and equipment categories, for a total of approximately 200 equipment and country combinations.

BUENAS simulates policy scenarios such as:

• Best Practices — Identifies achievable efficiency targets based on alignment of Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) across regions.
• Cost-Effective Potential — Models economic potential of high-efficiency appliance and equipment by integrating BUENAS and the Global Energy Efficiency Cost (GEEC) database developed at LBNL.
• Best-Available Technology — Characterizes most aggressive energy efficiency technical potential.

BUENAS provided input to IEA's World Energy Outlook 2012 and was also featured in the Global Energy Assessment in 2012. In collaboration with The Prayas Energy Group, IES used BUENAS to support the design of the Super-Efficient Equipment Program (SEEP) for India's Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), a program supported by the World Bank.

• BUENAS Documentation: Methodology and Results
• Guidebook for India's Super-Efficient Equipment Program

Link to this Application.

The HERON project was a two-year initiative funded by the European Commission's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme. It was designed to help EU policy makers to develop and monitor energy efficiency policies in the buildings and transport sectors, through forward-looking socio-economic research in seven EU and one candidate countries.

The objectives were:

• Evaluate the impact of socio-economic and institutional factors on implementing energy efficiency policies and measures,
• Develop energy-efficient pathways to 2030 and beyond taking into account the socio-economic drivers and energy efficiency measures,
• Help to improve energy modeling by incorporating social, educational and cultural factors so as to reflect end-user behavior,
• Establish communication channels between researchers, decision makers and social and market stakeholders.

These objectives were tackled through:

1. Mapping of energy efficiency policy instruments, available technologies and social, economic, cultural and educational barriers in transport and buildings,
2. Assessing the barriers and the main driving factors for energy efficiency, in order to define their weight and importance,
3. Determining linkages between these factors and energy efficiency,
4. Conducting forward-looking scenario analysis, focusing on macro- and micro-economic impacts of energy efficiency policy options,
5. Making policy recommendations through multi-criteria evaluation and feedback mechanisms with policy makers and market stakeholders in the EU including member states, and the covenant of Mayors, as well as in neighboring countries.

HERON researchers used LEAP to develop scenario-based assessments of energy efficiency potential in the buildings and transport sectors in eight countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Greece, the United Kingdomm, Italy and Serbia. They also developed an innovative decision support tool to incorporate non-economic and non-market elements, such as social, educational and cultural, into scenario analysis.

The HERON programme was led by the Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, and also included researchers from the following Institutions: Bocconi University in Italy, The Black Sea Energy Research Centre (BSERC) in Bulgaria, The Stockholm Environment Institute-Tallinn Center in Estonia, Oxford Brookes University in the United Kingdom, The University of Antwerp in Belgium, The Wuppertal Institute in Germany, and The University of Belgrade in Serbia.

• Report on the Decision Support Tool developed by the Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens.

Link to this Application.

Fluctuations in the world’s economy and energy prices, political conflicts, and environmental impacts are significantly affecting Thailand's energy system and highlighting the need for scenario-based approaches to energy planning. This need is addressed in The Thailand Energy Outlook for 2016 (TEO2016), prepared by the Policy and Strategy Management Office of the Thai Ministry of Energy with support from researchers at Chulalongkorn University.

TEO2016 includes analysis of the current energy system as well as projections to the year 2036 under a range of alternative future scenarios. The first scenario is named the "Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint" (TIEB), and reflects national energy and development objectives to be achieved within the 2015-2036 timeframe in Thailand. The other scenario is named the "Possible Risk" scenario, and reflects possible risks that could prevent the TIEB from being realized. Development of this scenario is intended to illustrate plausible risks so that Thailand can prepare for and thus overcome the possible obstacles promptly and appropriately.

The TIEB scenario takes into consideration both energy consumption and resource management issues, and has been conducted in parallel with an effort to revise and more fully integrate the National Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP), the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP), the Oil Plan, and the Power Development Plan (PDP).

• Thailand Energy Outlook 2016 Summary Report.

Link to this Application.

Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the unelectrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. Diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) on climate change foresee over 60% reductions in greenhouse gas (GH) emissions from the power sector. The goal of this study was to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet these NDC targets along with its 2030 electricity access and renewables goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, three scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity were built. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHSs). The supply assumptions examine the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity projected out to 2030. The results reveal that Nigeria can meet its electricity access goals and decarbonisation pledges although its renewable energy goals would only be partly met. The implications and uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.

Authors: María Yetano Roche, Hans Verolme, Chibuikem Agbaegbu, Taylor Binnington, Manfred Fischedick, Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo

• Paper in Climate Policy: available here.
• LEAP area containing three scenarios: BAU, Moderate and Green: NigeriaPower.leap

Link to this Application.

Working with the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Vermont’s Agency of Natural Resources, and its Department of Public Service, SEI developed a LEAP model of Vermont to explore scenarios that achieve the GHG reduction targets for 2025, 2030 and 2050 set out in the state’s Global Warming Solutions Act.

The resulting LEAP model is available here and can be viewed by anyone using LEAP. Users who wish to explore more deeply (e.g. adjust inputs or calculate results), should obtain the latest versions of LEAP and NEMO (available here). The model is setup to use the commercial CPLEX solver (available separately for purchase), but users can also select one of the other solvers supported by LEAP. We recommend using CBC which is both fast and free.

Link to this Application.

In a long-standing collaboration between SEI and ACE (the ASEAN Center for Energy) running from 2022 to present (2025), SEI has provided technical support and guidance to ACE as it developed its flagship Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reports.

AEO6 explored technological and policy pathways to achieve national and regional energy targets (including options for meeting NDCs), and a scenario of SDG attainment in the ASEAN region using LEAP. AEO7 examined the implications for technology deployment, energy independence, and energy system costs and benefits. of national and regional targets. SEI helped ACE develop the energy system model underlying AEO7 (built on LEAP and LEAP modeling conducted for prior editions of AEO), interpret model results, and prepare the AEO7 report, which was published in late 2022.

A key innovation in the modeling was the introduction of advanced optimization methods using NEMO. ACE and SEI constructed an integrated LEAP-NEMO model capable of co-optimizing electricity generation, storage, and transmission across ASEAN, and used it to explore scenarios of regional power grid interconnection. On the demand side, a detailed model of residential, industrial, commercial and transport sectors has been developed. The AEO7 report was published in late 2022

For AEO8, launched in September 2024, ACE prepared a national net-zero model of the ASEAN region, using the latest version of LEAP and NEMO. The framework consisted of dozens of carefully-researched GHG mitigation, or “net-zero enabling”, options implemented within the AEO LEAP These options were used to develop Regional Aspiration (RAS) and Carbon Nreutrality (CNS) scenarios.

Related Links:

• AEO 8 (2024)
• AEO 7 (2022)
• AEO 6 (2020)
• AEO 5 (2017)
• AEO 4 (2015)
• AEO 3 (2011)
• AEO 2 (2009)

Link to this Application.

The Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa is the result of a scientifically underpinned process aimed at catalyzing and supporting transformative development in Africa. It examines the role that short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and other polluting emissions play in sustainable development. It analyzes strategies, policies, and measures to mitigate these pollutants while supporting development and human health and wellbeing in Africa as the continent adapts to climate change and pursues its sustainable development objectives over the next four decades.

Developed by African scientists in a process supported by SEI, the assessment shows how African leaders can act quickly across five key areas: transport, residential, energy, agriculture, and waste, to fight climate change, prevent air pollution, protect human health, and advance development.

The Assessment is founded upon continent-wide modeling of Africa's GHG, SLCP, and air pollution emissions, which were developed primarily within LEAP with results produced for 54 African countries. The energy and emissions modeling in LEAP was the basis for assessing climate and human health impacts using other models including NASA'S GISS climate model. The open-source LEAP model developed for this assessment is being released and made freely available to all.

Related Links:

• Brochures in Arabic, English, and French
• Summary for decision makers
• Launch video
• Full report
• LEAP Africa model.

Link to this Application.

The objective of this multi-year engagement was to support national teams in the preparation of their Biennual Update Reports (BURs) and Third National Communications (TNCs).

The project identified leading sources and sinks of GHG emissions including an inventory from 1990-2018, to engage local stakeholders in training and capacity building through information dissemination on climate change mitigation measures and priorities, and to prepare and submit strategic directions/recommendations towards practical, cost effective/efficient measures to mitigate anthropogenic GHG emissions, focusing on priority areas for national sustainable development ministries. The project provided information on mitigation actions and their effects, identified constraints, gaps and related financial, technical and capacity needs related to domestic measurement, reporting and verification; as well as other information relevant to the Convention.

The project was led by staff of GHGMI: the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute, with support for LEAP modeling and capacity building provided by SEI.

Related Links:

• The Bahamas Third National Communication
• The Bahamas First Biennial Update Report (BUR1)
• Saint Lucia Third National Communication

Link to this Application.

This project, commissioned by the European Commission Directorate-General for Structural Reform Support defined and analyzed pathways to climate-neutral electricity production in Estonia, which has historically had one of the world’s most greenhouse gas intensive electricity systems. Targeting net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the project explored the role that renewables, carbon capture and utilization, nuclear power, hydrogen, demand-side management, energy storage, electricity trading, and direct air capture of carbon dioxide could play in realizing climate neutrality objectives. A key issue was to take into account Estonia’s participation in Nord Pool, a multi-national electricity market that affects electricity prices and the availability of power imports and exports.

Decarbonization pathways were simulated in a detailed model of Nord Pool that SEI developed with LEAP and NEMO. Guided by the project team, stakeholders from across Estonia vetted the pathways modeling to arrive at a set of plausible, validated climate neutrality scenarios. These were then examined in a follow-on socioeconomic analysis that projected the scenarios’ impacts on economic output, employment, and consumer welfare. Results from the project are informing updates of Estonia’s national energy and power development plans.

The project was led by Trinomics with SEI, Tallinn University of Technology, and E3-Modeling the project parners.

More information here (SEI project page)

Link to this Application.

In this project, SEI worked with the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) of Thailand's Ministry of Energy and EGAT: the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand to conduct integrated resource and resilience planning (IRRP) for the Thai power system.

The IRRP exercise had a long-range time horizon and identifid strategies to attain carbon neutrality in the system by mid-century. Together with the Thai counterparts, SEI developed a highly resolved model of Thailand’s power system with LEAP and NEMO, including electricity demand, generation, storage, and efficiency in each of the country’s subnational electric grids. Transmission connectivity and power flow among the grids are explicitly modeled with NEMO, allowing co-optimization of generation, storage, and transmission options. The introduction of co-optimization capabilities is a significant advance for the Ministry, which previously analyzed generation and transmission separately. The IRRP modeling is accounting for a wide range of social and environmental objectives and critical future uncertainties that may impact planning decisions, such as climate change, pandemics, and technological uncertainty. Results from the analysis are informing the national Power Development Plan (PDP) and National Energy Strategy, both of which must be aligned with Thailand’s carbon neutrality goals.

Link to this Application.

As part of its ongoing efforts to improve energy connectivity and increase access to a clean, affordable, and secure electricity supply, in 2023 UN ESCAP, The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific published a Roadmap for a Green Power Corridor for Northeast Asia. Covering China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Japan, Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and northeastern Russia. The Roadmap charts a path to improved regional power grid connectivity through technical, institutional, financial, regulatory, and political cooperation.

SEI supported the development of the Roadmap by modeling power grid connectivity options and their comparative costs and benefits. A team of SEI experts built a LEAP-NEMO model that simulates each national and subnational power grid in the region (17 in total across the 6 countries) and explores their evolution through 2060. The model accounts for the study countries’ latest energy and climate plans, including updated Nationally Determined Contributions and net-zero commitments. It simulates electricity demand and supply (generation, storage, and transmission capacity expansion and dispatch) in an integrated framework.

The model can be used to evaluate different scenarios of grid connectivity and sustainable development. The connectivity possibilities include grid configurations examined in significant past studies, such as the Asian Super Grid, North-East Asian Power System Interconnection (NAPSI), and North-East Asian Energy Interconnection (NEAEI), as well as new options developed with regional stakeholders.

By quantifying trade-offs and advantages of potential connectivity improvements, the project is developing critical evidence for the Roadmap.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

As part of Morocco’s ambition to lead decarbonization efforts among low and lower-middle income countries, it is currently developing a long-term low emissions development strategy including a national carbon neutrality target for scope 1 and 2 emissions.

SEI supported the development of the Strategy by modeling Greenhouse Gas emissions and developing sectoral decarbonization strategies in close collaboration with sectoral stakeholders in government, as well as other private and public sector stakeholders that target net zero emissions by 2050.

A team of SEI experts built a LEAP-NEMO model covering national energy and non-energy emissions from seven sectors: energy, transport, industry, tertiary, agriculture, forest, and waste, and used this to explore their evolution through 2060. The model simulates energy demand and supply (generation, storage, and transmission capacity expansion and dispatch), as well as process emissions, agricultural emissions, and emissions from land use and land use change, and hydrogen production in an integrated framework. The model accounts for Morocco’s latest energy and climate plans, including the updated NDC published in 2021, as well as hundreds of sectoral plans and legal documents affecting GHG emission from the seven sectors. It is coupled to the GEMMES macroeconomic model to evaluate long term feedbacks on the national economy.

SEI used the model to develop a business-as-usual and two decarbonization scenarios, including a CDN+ and a net zero scenario, and to evaluate the costs and benefits of each of the scenarios. The net zero scenario is being translated into sectoral implementation plans to ensure Morocco is on a pathway to carbon neutrality.

Related Links:

• Morocco's LT-LEDS Report (2021) LT-LEDS (in French)
• UNEP briefing on Morocco's LT-LEDS Development Process
• Roadmap for a low-carbon transformation in Morocco (SEI briefing)

Link to this Application.

Water, energy and food security are intertwined challenges in Central Asia, transcending the borders of the five countries that share the Syr Darya and Amu Darya river basins. The USAID Regional Water and Vulnerable Environment activity (WAVE) links Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in an effort to support shared resource management using governmental collaboration and scientifically based nexus modelling. The program’s goal is to strengthen regional cooperation and develop a shared vision among stakeholders on sustainable water management and environmental protection.

SEI’s employed its Robust Decision Support (RDS) framework to inform goal-setting and socio-economic scenarios, and develop integrated water-energy-food-macroeconomic modeling that can be used explore optimal water resource management robust to planning uncertainty and climate change. A team of SEI experts built an integrated LEAP-WEAP-AMES model (three SEI developed tools) that allows for feedbacks between each of the sectors. Five focus scenarios were developed that analyse the impact of increasing levels of resource use efficiency, climate change mitigation, and regional cooperation policies on energy availability, water availability and economic development and are explored in an envelop of potential climate scenarios. The model enables considering the impact of climate change in a region where hydropower plays an important role over decadal timescales and can support decision making related to energy systems development by governments and society more generally.

SEI is using the linked models to evaluate the true potential of hydropower as a renewable energy resource taking into account other demands for drinking water, irrigation, and industry. It assesses how energy and water investments affect the overall economy, and whether and how they contribute to economic development. A group of national experts is trained on developing and using the model for policy analysis and communication to foster local capacity and a shared vision. These activities will contribute to a mutual understanding of the complex decisions that must be made to ensure water security and economic stability in the region.

Related Links:

• Report: Developing a Comprehensive Water-Energy Model for the Syr Darya River Basin Using WEAP and LEAP Modeling Software
• WAVE Project Page on the Eurasian River Basin Portal with Links to the LEAP and WEAP WAVE models.

Link to this Application.

UNESCAP, the Economic and Social Comission for Asia and the Pacific, has developed an analytical tool called NEXSTEP - the National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning to support the development of national SDG7 roadmaps in the Asia and Pacific Region, as part of its support to countries in the region to help them meet their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The NEXSTEP tool, which in large part is an application of LEAP, enables policymakers to make informed policy decisions to support the achievement of the SDG7 and emission reduction targets. It was originally undertaken in response to the Ministerial Declaration of the 2nd Asian and Pacific Energy Forum (April 2018, Bangkok) and the Commission Resolution 74/9.

The three key steps of the methodology are:

• Energy modeling to help estimate the share of different energy resources, and identify the technological interventions needed to achieve those shares,
• Economic analysis to identify the economically feasible options/interventions,
• Scenario analysis to determine/identify the policies that are feasible for implementation in the national context.

The NEXSTEP methodology has already been widely applied in numerous countries, cities and provinces in the Asia Pacific region including at the national scale in Bhutan, Micronesia, Fiji, Georgia, Indonesia, Kiribati, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, and Vietnam, as well as at the city or provincial scale in Chiang Rai, Borongan, Cauayan, Ormoc, Iskandar, Jakarta, Surat Thani, and Udon Thani.

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Related Links

• UNESCAP NEXSTEP Home Page with links to numerous reports for many countries, cities and provinces.

Link to this Application.

This project supported collective capacity building in CARICOM nations through the enhancement of knowledge and skills for energy planning in electric utilities, electricity regulatory agencies and government ministries and agencies responsible for sustainable energy planning and emissions mitigation.

The support focused on professional training in the use and application of LEAP and other software and tools for energy system modeling.

A secondary aim was to support the effective functioning of the CARICOM Regional Energy Modelling Cluster (REMC), as well as the Energy Modelling and Renewable Energy Virtual (EMREV) Laboratory of the Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE).

Run as a virtual online training course during the COVID pandemic, the course was led by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI) and supported by staff of the Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE) and GIZ,German International Cooperation.

The course had record breaking turnout with 123 participants attending from 14 of the 15 CARICOM countries.

Related Links:

• News Story: Powering Future of Sustainable Energy Through Caribbean Collaboration

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This study condcuted by the U.S. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Global Efficiency Intelligence used LEAP to study net zero pathways for China's steel industry.

Iron and steel manufacturing is one of the most energy-intensive industries worldwide, accounting for around 7% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 11% of global carbondioxide (CO2) emissions. In 2021, China accounted for 53% of global steel production. The Chinese steel industry produced 1,033 million tonnes (Mt) of crude steel in 2021, of which89.4% was produced by primary steelmaking plants using blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) and 10.6% was produced by the electric arc furnace (EAF) production route.China has pledged to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. China’s steel industry is expected to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030. Thispeak in steel industry CO2 emissions is mainly driven by the peaking of domestic steel demand. Steel production in China has one of the highest carbon intensities in the worldbecause the majority of steel is produced by the energy-and carbon-intensive BF-BOF steelmaking process.

The study analyzed the current status of the Chinese steel industry and developed scenarios for 2050 to assess different decarbonization pathways that can substantially reducethe CO2 emissions of the steel industry in China. It included five major decarbonization pillars in the analysis: 1) demand reduction, 2) energy efficiency, 3) fuel switching, electrification, and grid decarbonization, 4) technology shift to low-carbon steelmaking, 5) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). The analysis to 2050 showed that under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, due to steel demand reduction, moderate energy efficiency improvement, technology shift (primarily to the EAF production route), and decarbonization of the grid, annual CO2 emissions will decrease by 54% between 2020 and 2050. Chinese steel production drops 23% in the same period underthe BAU scenario.

Related Links:

• Report: Net-Zero Roadmap for China's Steel Industry

Link to this Application.

Rhode Island is one of several U.S. states with legally mandated, economy-wide GHG emission reduction targets. Compared to 1990 levels, state law requires a 10% cut in emissions by 2020, a 45% cut by 2035, and an 80% cut by 2050.

SEI carried out an initial study to analyze possible pathways to these targets and helped the state develop a plan for achieving them. We led the study's modeling and technical analysis of the energy system, GHG emissions, mitigation measures, and costs and benefits. Our work included building an integrated energy system model using LEAP for the state; modeling mitigation options in power generation, buildings, transport, agriculture, waste, and other sectors; and exploring the implications of different mitigation pathways with stakeholders from government and civil society. We took a bottom-up approach to the modeling of energy demand, with rich detail on energy end uses and technology choice, and developed a submodel of electricity supply that quantified Rhode Island's participation in a regional (multi-state) electricity grid. This submodel supported both consumption-based and conventional (territorial) accounting of GHG emissions. Results from the modeling and analyses underpinned the state’s 2016 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Plan.

In a follow-up project, SEI partnered with the Climate and Development Lab at Brown University to investigate deeper decarbonization pathways for the state. Targeting net-zero GHG emissions by as soon as 2030, we updated our integrated energy and emissions model for Rhode Island to analyze a suite of more ambitious climate change mitigation measures, including:

• Zero-carbon electricity based on wind, solar, hydropower, and nuclear sources
• Complete electrification of road vehicles (all classes) and heating systems
• Enhanced industrial, commercial, and residential energy efficiency
• No and low-cost behavioral changes to conserve energy and reduce emissions

The study found that emissions could feasibly be reduced 70-80 percent by 2030, 2040 or 2050.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

To help achieve its ambitious target to integrate renewable energy into its energy mix and aggressively increase energy efficiency, the Directorate General for Natural Resources and Energy/Direcção Geral dos Recursos Naturais e Energia (DGRNE) of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Natural Resources/Ministério das Infraestruturas e Recursos Naturais (MIRN) of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) decided to use LEAP to help produce its 2022 National Renewable Energy and National Energy Efficiency Action Plans.

The work was spearheaded by a team consisting of ITP Energised, SEI, and Ecosphere with support from UNIDO, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization and funding from GEF, the Global Environment Facility. LEAP was used as the main analytical framework for the RE and EE plans, which map out the objectives, strategies and solutions to make the country's energy transition a reality.

Two reports are available here (in Portuguese):

• National Renewable Energy Plan.
• National Energy Efficiency Plan.

Link to this Application.

While Central Asia has a vast potential to develop large-scale renewable energy systems, it remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. This paradigm is increasingly challenged by the imperative of decarbonization and rapidly growing energy demand in the region. Some integration of energy systems exists among Central Asian countries, but the region’s infrastructure is not prepared for a transition to low-carbon energy and real-time power trading across borders. Significant investment and increased governmental cooperation are needed to improve the reliability of electricity grids and other channels for energy trade, which would, in turn, bring economic and environmental benefits to the region.

This report, headed by the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), explores the benefits of greater energy connectivity across the region. SEI used its energy modelling tools, LEAP and NEMO, to provide the scenario modelling for the report. The analysis finds that greater integration of energy systems among Central Asian countries would:

• save the region at least USD 1.4 billion in electricity production costs each year by 2050;
• boost the variety and share of low-carbon and renewable energy sources available to each country;
• bolster countries’ energy security;
• drive economic growth;
• help countries meet their climate goals; and
• allow for the development of regional electricity markets.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

The ecological complexity of the Central and West Asian region gives way to diverse ecosystems with rich natural resources and hydrocarbon reserves. Countries in this region are not only exposed to climate change risks, but there is growing recognition that their carbon-intensive economies necessitate reduction in GHG emissions in line with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

The Economics of Climate Change in Central and West Asia, a regional technical assistance project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) was designed to identify costs and opportunities in investments for low-carbon growth and climate resilience and low-carbon growth, under two components:

• mitigation of climate change, which assessed the costs and benefits of GHG emission reduction measures and formulated low-carbon growth investment proposals for energy and transport in the most carbon-intensive countries in the region; and
• adaptation to climate change, which assessed the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on energy and water resources in the most vulnerable countries.

For this project, SEI studied the economics of climate change mitigation in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, addressing this question through integrated energy, emissions, and cost modeling. We built national energy system and GHG emissions models for each country, incorporating features such as:

• Detailed electric sector modeling – integration of renewable technologies, least-cost optimization of capacity dispatch and expansion, cogeneration
• Modeling of renewable power targets and caps on emissions from electric sector
• Vehicle stock turnover simulations
• Analyses of electric and alternative fuel vehicles
• Analysis of renewable thermal technologies (e.g., solar hot water)
• Fuel and carbon pricing scenarios (carbon taxes and cap-and-trade)
• Analyses of energy efficiency measures in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors
• Quantification and discounting of social costs and benefits

Mitigation options for the study were based on national plans, current policies, and consultations with government and civil society stakeholders. Results from the modeling were used to develop marginal abatement cost curves for the countries and to explore the implications of national mitigation programs, including health and other co-benefits. The project also comprised national and regional capacity building workshops for stakeholders on LEAP modeling, mitigation analysis, and cost-benefit assessment.

Report available here.

Link to this Application.

Ethiopia is committed to an ambitious contribution to the Paris Agreement goals of containing the global average temperature increase below 2C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5 C. Given the devastating impacts that climate change is already having on its people, environment, and economy, it is imperative that immediate global climate action is taken to increase climate resilience and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Recognizing Ethiopia’s national circumstances and capabilities, its long-term low emissions development strategy (LT-LEDS) represents clear progress in ambition with net zero emissions reached by 2050, and also seeks to inspire others to increase their contribution to this collective effort.

Ethiopia’s LT-LEDS was built on its Climate Resilience and Green Economy strategy and its previously submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). LT-LEDS development was led by the Ministry of Planning and Development (MoPD), with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) providing technical assistance and the AFD providing financial support.

The LT-LEDS analysis consisted of a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three net-zero emissions (NZE) scenarios. The BAU scenario is used as a counterfactual against which the performance of the three NZE scenarios is compared and costs (and benefits) are assessed. The three decarbonization scenarios show a range of possible trajectories for choosing a pathway for Ethiopia. In the NDC-aligned scenario, ambition is phased in to achieve the NDC emissions target in 2030, after which ambition is increased by 2035 to achieve NZE by 2050. The maximum ambition scenario envisages maximum ambition early on, leading to NZE around 2032 and remaining below zero after that. In the late action scenario, ambitions are reduced, compared to the other scenarios, and most ambition is implemented in 2040– 2050; the NDC 2030 emissions target is missed, but if high ambition is implemented during the last years, the scenario can reach NZE by 2050.

The LT-LEDS process was led by an MoPD steering committee to provide overall guidance and endorse the process. In addition, to enhance ownership, promote knowledge sharing, and ensure data flow from key stakeholders, seven technical sectoral working groups were held attended by government experts from different line ministries and the Climate Resilience Green Economy (CRGE) Facility, as well as GGGI technical experts. The working groups included energy and transport, forestry, agriculture, waste, industry, macroeconomy, and adaptation. Wider stakeholder engagement was ensured through six national stakeholder consultations and validation workshops and five training and capacity building events.

Modeling of mitigation actions was undertaken using LEAP for the energy sector, supplemented by the use of other tools for agriculture and other non-energy sectors. SEI led a capacity building workshop to help ensure the effective use of LEAP by MoPD and GGGI staff in the project.

Report available here.

Link to this Application.

SEI conducted LEAP modeling and capacity building to support Mexico's Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) in the evaluation of co-benefits of mitigation measures included in the revised NDC of Mexico’s energy sector. The work built upon previous support provided by SEI to Mexico's National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC).

A comprehensive bottom-up model of energy demand, energy supply, and related emissions for Mexico was developed within LEAP and used to analyze mitigation options and scenarios. A key part of the project was to evaluate the co-benefits of mitigation measures included in the updated NDC including air pollution. The project was redesigned to reflect impacts of the COVID pandemic on energy statistics and economic indicators.

The project was funded by GIZ (German Development Cooperation) and conducted by SEI as part of the project "Enhancing the coherence of climate and energy policies in Mexico" (CONECC).

Related Links:

• CONECC Web Page

Link to this Application.

China is undertaking an energy transition with the aim to build an energy system for the future that will be based on a clean, low carbon, safe, and efficient energy system, and which also complies with China's stated objective of being a "sustainable ecological civilization".

From 2016 to 2020, the China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC), a think tank that is part of the Chinese Energy Research Institute under the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission published a series of five reports called The China Renewable Energy Outlook (CREO), which made use of LEAP as their main scenario analysis framework.

The CREO studies used China's climate ambitions as a starting point for analyzing this vision compared with the development pathway implied by current policies. The reports also analyze the short-term policy measures required to promote renewable energy as part such an energy transition.

CREO Reports for 2016-2020 available here.

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China is the world's largest consumer and producer of primary energy as well as the world's largest emitter of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2). China surpassed the U.S. in primaryenergy consumption in 2010 and in CO2 emissions in 2006. In 2018, China was responsible for 21% of total global primary energy use and about 29% of global energy-related CO2emissions.

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's China Energy Group was founded in1988 with the aim of bringing information on energy use and energy efficiency to China and to understand China's energy use and energy-related trends.

The China Energy Outlook report presents key information on China’s historical energy and emissionstrends and current energy-related policies and programs, with trends projected to 2050.

LBNL used LEAP as the main modeling platform for the projections in the CEO.

CEO 2020 Report available here.

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The Ministry of Sustainable Development, Environment, Climate Action and Constituency Empowerment of Saint Kitts and Nevis used LEAP to support the development of its Third National Communication (TNC) and First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The project was financed by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), led by staff of GHGMI, the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute, with support for LEAP modeling and capacity building provided by SEI.

The LEAP model provided projections of the future energy demand and supply patterns, and three GHG emissions pathways, including 15 mitigation actions across different key sectors. The mitigation potential of these actions was compared to the NDC target, which aims for a 61% reduction from 2010 GHG emissions levels by 2030. Results showed that the currently identified mitigation actions would lead to a 34% reduction in emissions by 2030 and 44% by 2035 compared to 2010. The model helped to identify the gap and key sectors with additional mitigation potential.

Related Links:

• Third National Communication
• First Biennial Update Report

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The Comisión Nacional para el Uso Eficiente de la Energía (CONUEE), with support from international partners such as the European Union Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility (EUEI PDF), GIZ Mexico, and Fundación Bariloche, utilized LEAP to model energy consumption scenarios and assess the potential impacts of various energy efficiency measures in the industrial sector. This informed the development of a comprehensive roadmap aimed at improving energy efficiency in the manufacturing sector, including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The analysis provided quantitative insights into potential energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and economic benefits, thereby guiding policy recommendations and the design of targeted interventions.

The application of LEAP was guided by a participatory approach, engaging stakeholders from the private sector, academia, and government agencies. Through workshops and consultations, 50 energy efficiency measures were identified, which were then modeled using LEAP to project their long-term impacts.

Based on the cost-benefit analysis of these measures, 37 were found to be economically viable. Together, the implementation of these measures was projected to achieve an 8.2% reduction in energy demand and an 8.5% cut in industrial GHG emissions by 2030 compared to a Business as Usual scenario, while generating cumulative energy savings of 1,857 PJ and net economic benefits of $5.94 billion USD.

These results underscored the significant benefits of implementing these measures, not only in terms of energy savings but also in enhancing industrial competitiveness and contributing to Mexico's climate goals.

Related Links

• Report
• Program Website

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In 2016, Mexico's Secretariat of Energy (SENER), in collaboration with the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), used LEAP to develop a comprehensive energy consumption baseline and assess sectoral energy efficiency potentials. This initiative aimed to inform long-term energy policy by providing a detailed analysis of historical (2000–2015) and projected (2015–2030) final energy consumption across key sectors, including industry, residential, and transport. The study utilized both top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up sectoral analyses to model Mexico's energy landscape.

The modeling showed that, under a business-as-usual scenario, Mexico's final energy consumption was projected to increase significantly by 2030, driven by economic and demographic growth. The study also identified substantial energy efficiency potentials across sectors. For instance, the industrial sector exhibited significant opportunities for energy savings through the adoption of best available technologies and practices. The residential and transport sectors also showed considerable efficiency potentials, particularly through improvements in building insulation, appliance standards, and vehicle fuel efficiency.

Related Links

• Report

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Between 2018 and 2021, Argentina developed a comprehensive proposal for its National Energy Efficiency Plan (PlaNEEAr) using LEAP. This initiative was part of the "Eficiencia Energética en Argentina" project, a collaboration between Argentina's Ministry of Energy, and the European Union's Euroclima+ program, with technical support from Fundación Bariloche and GFA Consulting Group. The objective was to develop a roadmap to reduce energy intensity across key sectors—industry, transport, and residential—while aligning with national climate and economic development goals. LEAP was used to model over 90 potential energy efficiency measures, and evaluating their impacts under varying levels of ambition.

Related Links

• Project Website
• Report

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In 2025, a national energy sector roadmap to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 was developed using the LEAP and NEMO modeling tools. The initiative was led by the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Lao PDR and supported by the ASEAN Climate Change and Energy Project (ACCEPT). ACE led the energy modeling in LEAP, with technical support provided by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

The roadmap aligns the country’s energy development with its long-term climate commitments and finds that the net-zero target can be realized through improvements in energy efficiency, increased use of solar and biomass energy, and large-scale electrification, among other measures. With detailed recommendations, this roadmap gives a comprehensive framework to guide policymakers, stakeholders and investors toward achieving net zero in Lao PDR.

Related Links

• Report
• Project Web Page

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The ASEAN Green Future (AGF) initiative is a multi-year research collaboration launched in 2021, involving the U.N. Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), the ClimateWorks Centre at Monash University, and research teams from nine Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The AGF project is supported by the UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (UK PACT) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

AGF aims to develop capacity for quantitative and qualitative climate policy analysis and to chart net-zero pathways in ASEAN that support the strategic foresight of policymakers. Country teams have used the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model long-term energy strategies and decarbonization scenarios.

Related Links:

• AGF Website
• Report: Decarbonisation Pathways for Singapore
• Report: Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions for Laos
• Report: Analysis and Modelling of Power Sector in Thailand
• Report: Optimising Malaysia's Power Mix for Sustainable Future: A Multi-Scenario Modelling Approach
• Report: Simulating Malaysia's Electrifying Future

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Colombia has extensively applied LEAP to support its national and local climate and air quality strategies. The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MinAmbiente) has used LEAP for emission inventories, mitigation scenario analysis, and policy planning over the past decade. Multiple projects have been carried out with support from national and international partners including the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), VITO, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and local partners such as the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM), and Universidad de los Andes.

Between 2010 and 2014, Colombia developed its first indicative inventory of black carbon and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) using LEAP, laying the foundation for air quality and climate co-benefits analysis. This work informed the country’s 2018 National SLCP Mitigation Strategy, which evaluated sector-specific actions—particularly in transport, residential cooking, and industry—based on LEAP scenario modeling to reduce pollutants harmful to health and the climate.

In 2020, Colombia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement was also underpinned by LEAP-based analysis. The LEAP model was used to assess mitigation measures across the energy and non energy sectors. The modeling helped quantify the emissions reduction potential of more than 30 measures and track progress toward Colombia’s economy-wide goal of a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. A technical annex to the NDC includes results from the LEAP-based scenarios, and a national user guide was published to promote transparency and replicability.

In 2021, Colombia further used LEAP to conduct a gap analysis between identified mitigation actions and the emissions reductions needed to meet the 2030 NDC target. This helped highlight areas where additional ambition and support are needed.

Related Links:

• First Indicative Black Carbon Emissions Inventory 2010-2014
• National SLCP mitigation strategy 2018
• Colombia NDC (2020)
• Colombia NDC Technical Abnex(2020)
• Colombia LEAP Model User Guide, 2020

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This report showcased the results of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways for Latin America and the Caribbean project (DDPLAC), which has generated important experience in how development banks can help countries design long-term decarbonization strategies. The DDP initiative demonstrates how countries can transform their economies by 2050 to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in a deep and coherent way, with the aim of reaching carbon neutrality as soon as possible in the second half of the 20th century.

DDPLAC is designed and executed by the Inter American Development Bank (IDB), in partnership with the 2050 Pathways Platform and the French Development Agency (AFD), and draws upon the knowledge and skills of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).

Related Links:

• DDP LAC Report

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This report describes alternative demand scenarios, energy supply options, and fossil fuel substitution policies that together form an "Action Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of the Galapagos Islands Archipelago" covering the period 2020-2040. The analysis was validated through virtual workshops held in June 2020.

The study was conducted within the framework of the project "Technology Transfer Mechanisms and Networks Related to Climate Change for Latin America and the Caribbean" supported by the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and executed by Fundación Bariloche.

Related Links:

• Project Report

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A series of trainings and modeling workshops for staff of the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), with support from UNDP Kuwait, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and SEI, culminated in the first edition of the Kuwait Energy Outlook (KEO): an economy-wide analysis of energy consumption and production in the country. Based on a LEAP scenario analysis developed jointly by KISR and SEI, the KEO makes the case for a new energy strategy for the country: one that fosters economic diversification and reduced fossil fuel dependency, and which promotes energy efficiency and renewable energy.

The KEO includes detailed analyses of the residential, transportation, desalination and electric generation sectors, and highlights how a transition to a more diversified, energy efficient and renewables-based system can help Kuwait reduce its per capita GHG emissions, which are currently among the highest in the world (21 tonnes per person). Any such transition will require careful reform of energy prices. These are currently highly subsidized and so act as a huge barrier to economically rational energy efficiency and conservation.

The study also highlights the urgent need to improve data collection and sharing in the country and to scale up the institutional capacity for data collection, planning and analysis. The current paucity of energy statistics was challenging for the production of the outlook and prevented detailed analysis of key sectors (industry and services).KISR intends to make the KEO an annual flagship report. As data improves, it expects to deepen the analysis of energy policies in future editions, for example with more precise and detailed analysis of key sectors and the development of a cost-benefit analysis of policy options as the basis for setting energy strategy priorities.

Related Links:

• KEO Executive Summary (English)
• KEO Executive Summary (Arabic)
• KEO Full Report (English)
• KEO Full Report (Arabic)
• KEO Video
• KEO PowerPoint

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This report describes a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions model of Ireland's energy and agriculture sectors, which are responsible for approximately 61 million tonnes (Mt) of GHG emissions in 2017. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software was used to build the LEAP Ireland 2050 model, which simulates the development of future possible decarbonization pathways for Ireland.

The LEAP Ireland 2050 model is maintained at University College Cork. The tool is hosted online and is accessible via the MaREI datahub. Access to the LEAP model is subject to a Creative Commons license.

Authors: Tomás Mac Uidhir, Fionn Rogan and Brian Ó Gallachóir

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The FOCI project (non-CO₂ FOrcers and their Climate, weather, air quality and health Impacts) running from 2022 to 2026 aims to provide policy recommendations by bridging knowledge gaps on the impact of non-CO₂ climate forcing pollutants, also known as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as black carbon (soot), methane, tropospheric ozone, and hydrofluorocarbons. While the causes and processes connected to greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) are well known, including its ability to trap and heat the earth's atmosphere, and its environmental and health impacts, there is less information on the effects of many of these SLCPs. FOCI will assess the environmental and health impacts of these pollutants including how and where they arise.

To do this, researchers will use computer modeling to simulate interactions between various components of the earth's systems. Such components, which includes the earth's atmosphere, will be studied to understand and predict the impact of SLCPs on the earth's climate system using global Earth System Models (ESMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Findings from the research will inform the development and adaptation of climate-related policies.

Researchers at SEI are contributing to this work by developing historical emission estimations and future projections in specific regions (Latin America and Africa) and sectors (agriculture, waste) to understand the influence of current climate change mitigation measures over the medium and long-term on all emitted non-CO₂ forcers. LEAP is being used to develop new nationally appropriate emissions scenarios and mitigation assessments, making use of the recently developed LEAP Africa model as well as a new LEAP model currently being developed for Latin America. These models will be used to identify the economic costs of implementing non-CO₂ mitigation measures.

The study will provide an assessment framework with recommendations by which policymakers, planners and diverse stakeholders can develop integrated strategies for improved air quality and climate benefits. The methodologies, input data, and results used in developing the assessment will be made available to the existing community of LEAP practitioners. The assessment will be translated into suggested policy measures ensuring climate resilience is a central component of air quality and climate change planning processes.

FOCI is co-funded by the European Union and UK Research and Innovation.

Related Links:

• FOCI website
• SEI FOCI Page

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Colombians have long grappled with air pollution. In urban areas, vehicle emissions and industrial pollutants cloud the air, while rural regions contend with wood and solid fuel usage for cooking and heating. The annual wildfire season further exacerbates air quality problems.

Colombia is responding proactively. In 2018, it developed a National Strategy for Mitigating Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs). This strategy implemented reduction measures and established a mechanism to assess their impact on air quality while also considering climate change considerations. Colombia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), submitted in 2020 reflected this approach, prominently featuring black carbon reduction goals in the submission.

The country's capital city, Bogotá, has integrated actions in its Air Plan 2030 to manage the sources and emissions of air pollutants for the city. Colombia achieved 10% reductions in average PM2.5 concentrations in 2023, reaching WHO interim target 3 levels. Bogotá, in particular, led the charge with an 11% decrease relative to 2022—the city’s lowest value in four years.

This project aims to further improve Bogotá's air quality planning processes to address the city's air quality. Working with SEI staff, Bogotá's environment agency and its Secretariat of Environment will conduct integrated Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) analysis that explores the co-benefits of reducing black carbon and other co-pollutant emissions.

The Secretariat will apply its air quality modelling tool Sistema Integrado de Modelación de Calidad de Aire de Bogotá (SIMCAB), while SEI’s researchers apply LEAP to develop local emissions scenarios and assess pollution abatement strategies.

Related Links:

• Project Page on SEI web site
• Information on SIMCAB

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The National Energy Policy (PEN) 2022-2052 of Colombia is a long-term prospective exercise that aims to identify technological alternatives in energy production and consumption and assess their impacts on supply, competitiveness, sustainability, public finances, and the country's economy. Based on the above, this indicative document explores and addresses uncertainty, understands the implications of current decisions, proposes solutions, recognizes risks and opportunities, and establishes new agendas for the energy sector.

The long-term planning process for the 2022-2052 National Energy Plan identified a wide range of technologies and resource utilization options aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the principles of a Just Energy Transition. To benefit from the implementation of these alternatives, it was essential to formulate public policies and design financial mechanisms that facilitate the execution of the proposed investments.

Since its original release, monitoring revealed that the energy sector had experienced progress approaching the "Update" policy scenario in the original plan. This progress reflects the efforts made to date, but also shows the need for greater effort to achieve the energy transition. Subsequently therefore, an additional "Energy Transition" scenario was created, in addition to the original "Update", "Modernization", "Inflection", and "Innovation" scenarios. These scenarios group initiatives and assumptions according to the level of ambition and the transformation prospects of the mining and energy sector, and for each one an energy, environmental, and economic analysis was conducted. LEAP was used as the overarching modeling framework for the analyses.

The National Energy Policy (PEN) was developed by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit (UPME) a special administrative unit of the Ministry of Mines and Energy of Colombia.

Related Links:

• PEN Executive Summary
• PEN Volume I
• PEN Volume II
• PEN web page

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SEI is developing a new Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) tool - a user-friendly modeling framework intended to allow planners and policy makers to develop consistent, IPCC-compliant greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios for the agriculture, forestry, and land sectors. Fully implemented within LEAP, the new tool will enable users to estimate emissions of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O from these sectors using IPCC's Tier 1 methods from the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. The tool covers key non-energy emission sources such as enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, soil and manure management, and land-use change, considering both emissions and carbon sequestration enabled by sustainable management practices.

The tool will allow users to explore mitigation strategies and support long-term planning for agriculture, forestry, and land use and to integrate these scenarios with their existing LEAP models covering energy sector emissions. Primarily intended for use at a national scale, the AFOLU tool will be adaptable to different contexts and support transparent, scenario-based reporting aligned with UNFCCC requirements.

The AFOLU tool is currently under development and is expected to be published in the second half of 2025.

For more information, please contact the tool's lead developer Dr. Charlotte Wagner

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AMES is an open-source macroeconomic modeling tool implemented in the Julia programming language that can be used in conjunction with LEAP, and which is closely integrated with LEAP. When linked to LEAP, it can provides economic drivers to LEAP models and take outputs from LEAP and use them to estimate their impact on the wider economy. AMES is flexible and can also be integrated with other resource planning models such as SEI’s Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system.

Without a model like AMES, economic assumptions in LEAP, which are crucial drivers of energy demand, must be specified externally, and the economic impact of changing energy demand is not captured. This feedback loop is important because energy demand drives new energy investment, which can increase employment and stimulate the broader economy, which are outcomes of interest to policymakers. AMES provides a consistent way to generate economic assumptions, taking energy investment into account.

AMES is a multi-sector macroeconomic simulation model for national scale models. Because it is a multi-sector model, it requires data on inter-sectoral transactions, either supply-use tables or an input-output table. Supply-use table have been constructed for a large number of countries, and are often publicly available.

Related Links:

• AMES Github Page (source code)
• AMES Documentation
• AMES Working Paper
• Contact Jason Veysey for more information.
• AMES-LEAP Training Exercise

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The Fiji Low Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) 2018-2050 is a living document compiled in 2018 to define pathways to achieve low emission development in Fiji until 2050. Fiji is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its position as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), which leaves the country exposed to sea-level rise, cyclones of increasing intensity, and flooding, among other potential consequences. It is therefore imperative to take ambitious and rapid action to address climate change, through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. Through its LEDS, Fiji continues its climate leadership which, to-date, has included serving as the President of the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the ambitious near-term targets Fiji committed to under its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

As the central goal of this LEDS, Fiji aims to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 across all sectors of its economy through pathways defined in this LEDS. To achieve this core objective, the LEDS has elaborated four possible low emission scenarios for Fiji:

• A "Business-as-Usual (BAU) Unconditional scenario", which reflects the implementation of existing and official policies, targets, and technologies that are unconditional in the sense that Fiji would implement and finance them without reliance on external or international financing.
• A "BAU Conditional scenario", which reflects the implementation of existing and official policies, targets, and technologies that are conditional in the sense that Fiji would rely on external or international financing to implement mitigation actions, thus this scenario would have higher ambition than "BAU Unconditional".
• A "High Ambition scenario" projects ambitions beyond those already specified in policies, relying on the adoption of new, more ambitious policies and technologies and availability of additional financing to implement mitigation actions, and achieves significant emission reductions by 2050 compared with the business-as usual scenarios.
• A "Very High Ambition scenario" projects ambitions well beyond those already specified in policies, thus relying on the adoption of new, significantly more ambitious policies and availability of new technologies and additional financing to implement mitigation actions, and in which most sectors achieve net zero or negative emissions, by 2050.

Using LEAP as the main modeling framework, these scenarios were elaborated for each sector, including: electricity and otherenergy use; land transport; domestic maritime transport; domestic air transport;agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU); and waste. Coastal wetlands (bluecarbon) was also considered. The scenarios were then aggregated to build a whole-of economy emission reductions pathway for each scenario.

The LEAP model for Fiji used in the assessment was developed by academics at the University of the South Pacific (USP) and Fiji National University (FNU): Dr. Atul Raturi and Dr. Ravita Prasad. The LEDS process was supported by the Ministry of Finance of Fiji and the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI).

Related Links:

• Fiji LEDS web site
• Fiji LEDS Report

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