This manual has been developed by Sustainable Energy Africa as a handbook for city officials and planners in South Africa. It identifies energy interventions that will save money, promote local economic development and enhance the sustainability of cities. Four key interventions are identified:  solar water heaters, energy efficient lighting, energy efficient buildings, and public transport.  Scenarios for five cities in South Africa have been modeled using LEAP and are described in the manual.

Report available here in eight sections: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight.

Link to this Application.

This study authored by Shobhakar Dhakal of IGES in Japan examines Kathmandu Valley's motorized travel demand. It suggests that the demand will increase to 27 billion passenger-km by 2025, and the number of vehicles operating in the Valley will triple to about half a million by 2025. The study was sponsored by START International Secretariat under the auspices of the Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission and Global Carbon Cycle.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to help develop the 3rd APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook for 2006. The report contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Full report available here

Link to this Application.

This scenario study is a biennial publication of OLADE (the Latin American Energy Agency). It provides a forward-looking overview of energy supply and demand prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean to the year 2018. It includes data on the 26 member countries of OLADE. The study was conducted by OLADE in conjunction with the Bariloche Foundation, Argentina and the Independent University of Mexico and with financial support from the European Commission. LEAP was used as the main modeling framework for the study.

Report available for purchase from OLADE here.

A LEAP dataset developed for this study is available here

Link to this Application.

Current global energy models provide aggregate forecasts of future energy consumption and production trends. They lack sufficient detail, however, to be able to describe what these broad trends imply for end-use consumption patterns in specific sectors such as buildings, transport and industry. This lack of detail makes it difficult to assess the plausibility of existing models in terms of indicators such as end-use efficiency, usage pattern, size/scale and technology penetration.

LBNL’s Global Energy Model (GEM) project attempts to fill this gap by creating a new global end-use model of energy consumption. In the first ongoing phase of the work, an end-use energy model has been created in LEAP that divides the globe into ten regions. In each region, “marker” countries have been identified where detailed data is more readily available that can support an end-use analysis. Results from these marker countries can then be used to inform trends in the other countries in each region. Once fully developed, the model is intended to be used (among other things) as a tool for examining the plausibility of energy demand forecasts created in more aggregate models. Thus it is expected to fill a considerable gap in current modeling efforts.

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China’s Official energy statistics do not provide detailed end-use information about how final energy is consumed in the country. Data are particularly lacking for the crucial building sector. LBNL used LEAP to create a bottom-up model of the sector which provides for detailed consideration of end-use intensities, equipment efficiencies, and technology penetration. This model has been used by LBNL to develop energy scenarios that assess the significance of various energy policies and technologies for China, and to conduct sensitivity studies that examine the implications of different assumptions about future macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rates and fuel price trends.

External web site

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Numerous countries have used LEAP to prepare greenhouse gas mitigation assessments as part of their initial national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). LEAP is also expected to be an important tool for countries preparing their second (and in some cases third) national communications. To this end, LEAP has recently been demonstrated as part of a one week training workshop held by the UNFCCC for non-Annex 1 Parties embarking on their next national communications. The National Communications Support Programme of the UNDP has recently informed us that 85 countries have chosen to use LEAP to assist in their Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessments as part of their National Communications to the UNFCCC.

A report on a LEAP training in Egypt hosted by NCSP in 2006 is available here.

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A U.S. EPA lead initiative that engages developing countries in integrated planning to address both local environmental concerns and reduce associated global greenhouse gas emissions. The program promotes the analysis and local support for implementation of policy measures with multiple public health, economic and environmental benefits. To date, government agencies and research institutions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, the Philippines and South Korea have participated. A number of these studies have used LEAP as part of their analytical toolkit.

More information here.

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The Energy Research Centre (ERC) in Cape Town, South Africa has developed scenarios for Cape Town’s energy future. LEAP was used to simulate how energy might develop in Cape Town over the next twenty years. Cape Town had already developed a State of Energy report earlier, and adopted a City Energy Strategy including a 10% renewable energy target. The ERC report looked forward at how energy patterns might change in the future. The report found that policy interventions indeed can make a difference. Major energy savings can be made from modal shifts in the transport sector and with efficient lighting. Efficiency measures save money, and can help poor households in particular reduce their energy bills substantially. Implementing the city’s renewable energy target will have significant costs, which can be partly off-set by selling carbon credits. Targeted interventions can reduce local air pollution, and Cape Town has the opportunity to become a leader in addressing greenhouse gas emissions. The report identifies a wide range of policies that are viable in terms of costs, social benefits and the environment.

The report is available here.

For more information, contact Harald Winkler, Senior Researcher, ERC, University of Cape Town.

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The Governors of Washington, Oregon, and California have recently approved a series of recommendations for action to combat global warming, and directed their staffs to continue working on state and regional goals and strategies to combat global warming over the coming year. This effort is widely considered one of leading state initiatives on climate change in the United States. The Governors have committed to act individually and regionally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below current levels through strategies that promote long-term economic growth, protect public health and the environment, consider social equity, and expand public awareness. In this latest development, the Governors approved 36 recommendations in five areas that were jointly developed by the three states. The recommendations are based on a range of analyses including a major scenario study developed by SEI for the Energy Foundation. The scenario study was conducted using a range of different models, with LEAP used as the main organizational accounting framework of the study.

A press release from the Governor of Oregon is available here.

The main report is available here, and the scenario study (appendix B of the report) is available here.

A LEAP data set for the study is available here

Link to this Application.

The Department of Environmental Management (DEM) of the State of Rhode Island facilitated a multi-stakeholder process to develop an action plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the State of Rhode Island. The process involved stakeholders from the local community including representatives of industries, and local electric, oil and gas suppliers. SEI used LEAP to show where Rhode Island was heading in terms of its GHG emission trends and to help quantify and evaluate the potential savings and costs of various alternative GHG abatement options.

Project web site accesible here, where you can download various documents including some describing the analyses conducted using LEAP.

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Improved access to energy is a critical input for achieving the MDGs. McKinsey & Company undertook this study for the United Nations Millennium Project (MP). The MDGs are internationally agreed targets that aim to make significant inroads into addressing the world’s development challenges, such as halving the number of people living in poverty, and reducing child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. The MP—an advisory body to the UN Secretary-General —has been tasked with developing an implementation framework that will allow the MDGs to be met by 2015. Thematic task forces have been established to map out the resource requirements, financing strategies and sequence of investments needed. The MP is initially studying seven countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ghana, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. In the absence of internationally-agreed targets for access to energy, the MP defined a “parallel energy MDG” - minimum energy needs to provide basic services. The study analyzed a portfolio of interventions from which governments could choose and criteria that could be use in creating country-specific intervention plans. LEAP was used to facilitate costing of the case study scenarios.

Study summary available here.

Millennium Project home page.

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China’s ability to forge a sustainable energy path has global consequences. China’s annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprise nearly half of those from developing countries, and 12% of global emissions. At the same time, China has ambitious goals for economic development, and must find ways to power the achievement of those goals that are both environmentally and socially sustainable. In this study, the Beijing Energy Efficiency Center (BECON), part of the Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI), sought to explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the Tenth Five-Year Plan and its longer-term aims through a sustainable development strategy. The project was conducted as a collaborative study between the United States and China. The U.S. team was led by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) The teams used LEAP to create an end-use scenario-based model for national energy-efficiency planning. SEI assisted the Chinese research team to in their use of LEAP.

Report available here

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In Japan, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions associated with the energy transformation sectors account for over 30% of total CO2 emitted by the national economy. Substantial efforts to reduce the emissions in the power sector—which produces over half of energy transformation emissions—could have a significant impact on climate change mitigation in Japan. This report commissioned byWWF Japan explores the potential for CO2 emissions reductions from Japan’s power sector by comparing the estimated quantitative impacts on CO2 emissions, and the overall costs to Japanese society, of providing energy services through two energy pathways: a "Business As Usual" (BAU) scenario, in which current trends in the Japanese economy and power sector continue, and a "Power Switch" (PS) scenario, in which more aggressive transitions to non-fossil and low-carbon fuels are carried out in the Japanese power sector, accompanied by complementary aggressive implementation of energy efficiency measures geared to reduce electricity requirements.

Full report available here.

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APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to develop the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002, which contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) including the US, China, and Russia. The project is the major undertaking of the institute as mandated by the Energy Working Group of APEC.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Recent blackouts and high energy prices have highlighted the pressing need for long-term and interdisciplinary approaches to energy policy in California. This project presents a range of energy scenarios as a useful approach for visualizing and critically engaging with future possibilities. Developing a set of methods and energy scenarios for California, the project highlights scenario analysis as a systematic and exploratory way of thinking about energy from a long-term perspective. It aims to inspire critical discussion about energy choices in a way that is accessible and interesting to a broad base of stake-holders and decision-makers, and offers a starting point for considering alternative energy pathways for California.

A paper by Rebecca Ghanadan and John Koomey. Report available here.

Link to this Application.

The Nautilus Institute's East Asia Energy Futures project (EAEF) is collaborating with a network of regional energy researchers from the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, China, Japan, and the Russian Far East to produce a set of regional energy scenarios or "paths". The analyses will consider the national and regional energy security implications of a range of policies including international gas pipelines and LNG facilities, electricity transmission between countries, transport development, and the promotion of alternative fuels and energy efficiency. LEAP is being used by each group, both as a key common tool for scenario development, and also to promote transparency and data/results sharing between groups (2001-2002).

The project web site is located here

Link to this Application.

As part of the Indonesia-Netherlands Energy Working Group, the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) worked with the Indonesian Ministry of Mines and Energy to build its capacity for conducting integrated energy and environment planning. Initially, the work has focused on training staff of the Ministry about the basic concepts of integrated energy-environment analysis, using LEAP. Later, the team used LEAP to design and evaluate energy strategies for Indonesia and to assess the energy consumption and conservation potential of small sized enterprises.

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This project, which was led by the then UNEP Collaborating Center on Energy and Environment (now the UNEP DTU Partnership) provided a methodology, an implementing framework and a reporting system for countries to follow in meeting their reporting obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The project comprised national studies in Argentina, Ecuador, Estonia, Hungary, Indonesia, Mauritius, Senegal and Vietnam, and parallel studies and regional studies in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Andean Group of countries. Many of the countries involved in this project used LEAP to conduct their greenhouse mitigation studies, and SEI provided training and follow-up support to these countries.

Full reports, describing their LEAP analyses, are available from the UNEP web site for the following countries:Argentina. Botswana. Ecuador, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia.

Link to this Application.

SEI and the then UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (now the the UNEP DTU Partnership), and counterparts in Venezuela and Sri Lanka collaborated on a two-year project to develop analytical methods for incorporating environmental considerations in major fuel choice decisions. The project resulted in the LEAP fuel chain program (available as part of LEAP for DOS) and case studies directed towards fuel policy decisions in Venezuela and Sri Lanka.

Project report available here.

Link to this Application.

The aim of the USCSP was to assist developing countries and countries with economies in transition in meeting their obligations under the UNFCCC. Countries participating in the USCSP focused on assessing the vulnerability of their climate sensitive sectors and resources and, to a lesser extent, opportunities for adaptation. The general approach prescribed by the program involved six steps: (1) define scope of assessment process, (2) select scenarios, (3) conduct biophysical and economic impact assessments, (4) integrate impact results, (5) analyze adaptation policies and programs, and (6) document and present results to decision makers. At the center of this process is the evaluation of biophysical effects.

As members of the US Country Studies (USCS) program Mitigation Experts Team, SEI provided training and support for greenhouse gas mitigation studies in Bolivia, Botswana, Cote D'Ivoire, Ecuador, Kenya, Mongolia, and Uganda. The activities, which were coordinated by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, included training and assistance for country teams in their applications of LEAP.

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The National Environmental Protection Agency of China (NEPA) working with the UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) used LEAP in a study of long-term energy-environment scenarios for China. The study focused on policies for reducing the rate of growth in national SOx emissions. The project included three case studies: one of the national situation, one for Beijing city and one for Guanxhi province.

Report available here

Link to this Application.

Building on many years of collaboration with SEI, the Rural Wood Energy Development Programme(RWEDP) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN has adopted LEAP as a tool for organizing and analyzing biomass and rural energy issues. The tool has been distributed to focal points in 15 countries. A series of training seminars, centered on the use of the LEAP energy planning system, were conducted jointly by SEI and the RWEDP for participants from throughout the region. These have been used to improve awareness of biomass issues and build local analytical expertise.

An archive of the RWEDP site is available here.

Link to this Application.

Tellus Institute used LEAP as the analytical framework for a prominent national energy study: "America's Energy Choices" -- that identified the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy to provide long-term economic and environmental benefits.

Report available here.

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The Tellus Institute and the Center for Transportation Research at the University of Texas at Austin, used LEAP in a study that developed estimates of the technical and economic potential for energy and energy cost savings in the Texas transportation sector.

Report available here

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A groundbreaking study by Greenpeace International that examined the requirements for a global transition to a fossil-free energy future. A technical analysis used to support the study, was undertaken using LEAP.

Report available here.

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In a project funded by the World Bank, we linked LEAP to standard air quality dispersion modeling tools (ISC) and to a GIS tool for display of results. The project produced a Chinese language version of LEAP for use in the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau (BMEPB) and elsewhere in China and also involved the integration of LEAP with SEI's other tools for water planning and solid waste management planning.

Link to this Application.

Under the direction of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, SEI used LEAP to prepare case studies of energy demand for agriculture in five countries: Cameroon, Mali, Sudan, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (1996).

Report available here

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Conducted as part of the long-term cooperative arrangement between the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and SEI, this project promioted sustainable and self-reliant energy and environmental planning in Southern African countries. It focused on four target areas: Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and the Technical and Administrative Unit (TAU) of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Programme activities included training workshops and collaborative studies in Zambia and Zimbabwe. SEI provided training in the use of LEAP and assistance with the formulation of national energy policies and master plans in both Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe from 1992-1993.

Link to this Application.

The Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) and local agencies collaborated with SEI to evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of selected national energy policy options (1993).

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Mexico’s Special Climate Change Program—the Programa Especial de Cambio Climático (PECC), published in August 2009—sets Mexico’s long-term climate change agenda, together with medium-term goals for adaptation and mitigation.

The World Bank used LEAP to help create a new study called México: Estudio sobre la Disminución de Emisiones de Carbono (MEDEC) or "Low-carbon Development for Mexico". The study is intended to contribute to the implementation of Mexico’s long-term climate change agenda. The study, which was conducted by researchers based at the Centro de Investigación en Energía, evaluates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Mexico over the next 20 years. It evaluates low-carbon interventions across key emission sectors in Mexico using a common methodology. Based on the interventions evaluated, it develops a low-carbon scenario through 2030.

The study itself is available here in english and here in spanish.

The project web site is available here.

A LEAP dataset developed for this study is available here

A few notes about the dataset:

• The dataset was developed by CIE/UNAM
• The World Bank assumes no responsibility for the data.
• The dataset does not correspond to the final results of the study, since a number of changes and additions were made after the dataset was produced.

Link to this Application.

The EnergyScape project explores what New Zealand energy system might look like in 2030 and 2050. EnergyScape aims to test out current and emerging technologies in near future scenarios. Examples of technologies explored include electric vehicles, thin film photovoltaic cells, fuels from forests, pedestrianized cities, and smart electricity metering.

The EnergyScape platform, brings together a massive amount of data on production, distribution and conversion of energy into a tool which connects the different systems to each other and visualizes the results using LEAP. LEAP is used to allow people to create new scenarios and plug them together to create different visualizations of how New Zealand's energy landscape in the future.

The EnergyScape Web Site.

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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in Mexico is preparing a study on the economics of climate change for Central American countries. These countries (Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize and Guatemala) produce less than 0.5% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, they are also especially vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Temperature change, sea level rise, changing rain-fall patterns and other impacts will have an increasingly negative impact on the economies, populations and ecosystems of the region.

ECLAC is using LEAP to estimate baseline emissions from Central America’s energy sector, and to calculate the benefits of GHG mitigation actions as part of this study.

ECLAC web site.

Link to this Application.

The Danish consulting company, RAMBOLL, used LEAP for a series of climate mitigation scenario studies. Most prominent is feasibility study for the city of Copenhagen to become CO2 neutral by 2025. Copenhagen is already perhaps the most energy efficient city in the World, in part due to its widespread use of efficient combined heat and power (CHP) systems for district heating system, its huge investments in wind power, and because nearly 40% of its citizens cycle to work or school every day.

RAMBOLL used LEAP to help create a plan for achieving Copenhagen's ambitious climate mitigation goals. The LEAP study formed the basis for Copenhagen deciding to become the climate capital of the world, achieving a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2015 compared to 2005 and becoming first capital in the world to be completely CO2 neutral by 2025.

Copenhagen's climate plan is available here. For more information, see Copenhagen's climate web site.

RAMBOLL has also been using LEAP to help formulate climate action plans for other municipalities in Denmark including the city of Herning.

Link to this Application.

The 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO4) not only aims to provide policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the region up to the year 2035, but also to strongly involve all ASEAN Member States (AMS) in the process. The AEO4 will complement the implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025, thereby deriving strategies within ASEAN to address future energy needs.

The outlook covers all 10 members of the ASEAN region (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam).

The work was conducted by the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and used a combination of econometric and engineering based approaches for forecasting energy demands, using the Microfit econometric modeling system and LEAP.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Since the mid 1990s the Fundacion Bariloche (FB) has been helping organizations to apply LEAP as a tool for energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. FB has organized numerous capacity building workshops and conducted many energy and climate mitigation studies for Government agencies in the region. A highlight of these efforts has been the annual workshops held in the city of Bariloche, Argentina, which to date have trained almost 300 professionals from Latin America and the Caribbean about energy planning using LEAP.

Some examples of LEAP-related studies conducted by FB include:

1. Demand and supply projection for Peru (2001), the Dominican Republic (2003 and 2008), Argentina (2007), Colombia (2007).
2. Projections for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay conducted for OLADE (2005).
3. Climate change mitigation assessments for Argentina (2008), for the Electric Utility ENDESA (2008), El Salvador (2009), Nicaragua (2009) and Uruguay (2009).

The study conducted for the Dominican Republic in 2008 is available here.

For more information:http://www.fundacionbariloche.org.ar

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As the world’s most populous country and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China’s role is critical in combating global climate change.

As part of the project “Economics of Climate Change – Towards a Low-Carbon Economy in China”, a collaboration between the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the China Economists 50 Forum (CE50), researchers at SEI used LEAP to develop a technical analysis of how China’s energy systems might be altered over the coming four decades to allow China to meet ambitious goals for development and income growth at the same time as keeping GHG emissions within an overall budget that provides a reasonable chance of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C. The analysis developed a Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS) that examines the feasibility of massively reducing China’s CO2 emissions in 2050: with energy sector GHG emissions reduced to only 10% of the 2050 levels projected in the baseline scenario or about 85% of the level in 1990.

The CE50 Forum is an independent research forum made up of the most senior economists in China and is intended to act as a forum for researching and for presenting important issues related to China’s modernization, economic development and reform.

• A report describing the scenario analysis is available here.
  
• The project also resulted in a book edited by Lord Nick Stern and Prof. Fan Gang: "The Economics of Climate Change in China", which includes a chapter describing the scenario analysis. The book was named #11 on the list “2010 Top 40 Sustainability Books”, and is available for purchase from Amazon.

• The LEAP dataset used in this study is available here

Link to this Application.

Science is unambiguously telling us that even 2°C of warming would be highly dangerous for our planet. This report examines how Europe can show leadership in keeping global climate change within these limits: firstly, by undertaking domestic actions to rapidly reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and secondly, by fulfilling its international obligations to help other countries address the twin crises of climate change and development.

The report first analyzes how Europe can embark on a transition to a low GHG future – enabling it to achieve GHG emissions reductions of 40% in 2020 and 90% in 2050 relative to 1990 levels through a combination of radical improvements in energy efficiency, the accelerated retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic shift toward various types of renewable energy forms.

Next, the report assesses Europe’s international obligations for assisting the world’s developing nations make a transition to a low-GHG future by using the Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs) framework as a basis for assessing fair contributions to a global climate effort.

The report, which was developed in partnership with Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE), was published on December 1st, 2009. The main report, a summary of the report by Friends of the Earth, a press release, media briefing and other materials are all available here.

A LEAP data set containing the scenarios for 27 EU countries is available here

Link to this Application.

This report identified promising opportunities to support greenhouse gas mitigation efforts in China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea. It projected future “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios, assembled existing estimates of mitigation potential, and assessed barriers and opportunities concerning reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in each country. The report focused particular attention on policies, measures, and/or technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation, buildings, industry, and electricity production sectors.

Fulll report, available here, was prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by SEI and used LEAP in its preparation of baseline scenarios for each country.

Link to this Application.

As part of the ongoing decentralization of autonomy in Indonesia, regional governments are becoming increasingly responsible for setting energy policies. CASINDO aims to contribute to this process by establishing a self-sustaining and self-developing structure that will enable sound policies for renewable energy and energy efficiency at both the national and regional levels of Indonesia. CASINDO has been developed in close collaboration between eight Indonesian partners and the Dutch Government Agency AgentschapNL as part of bilateral energy co-operation between the two countries. It is coordinated by the Dutch foundation ECN and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and will run from 2009 through to 2011. The program involves activities both at the national level and in the provinces of Central Java, North Sumatra, West Nusa Tenggara, Yogyakarta and Papua. One key activity is building capacity among national and regional agencies to use of LEAP for energy planning. To this end, a series of LEAP training workshops have been conducted and teams are now engaged in the development of national and regional LEAP models.

CASINDO web site: www.casindo.info

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In August 2008, Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts signed into law the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA), making Massachusetts one of the first states in the nation to move forward with a comprehensive regulatory program to address Climate Change. The GWSA requires Massachusetts to set economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals that will achieve GHG reductions of:

• between 10 percent and 25 percent below 1990 GHG emissions levels by 2020.
• 80 percent below statewide 1990 GHG emission levels by 2050.

In 2009, the State chose a team lead by the The Eastern Research Group (ERG) and including staff from Synapse Energy Economics, SEI, Abt Associates and Cambridge Systematics to provide support to the GWSA process. The team used LEAP to develop a new set of energy and climate mitigation plans for the State that examine how the 2020 and 2050 goals can best be met.

This work culminated in the publication, in late 2010 of the Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 which details how the Commonwealth will comply with that limit. The limit for 2020 has been set to 25 percent below 1990 levels, the maximum authorized by the GWSA.

For more information see:

• Story in the New York Times.
• The Massachusetts Clean Energy and Climate Plan for 2020 (Full Report).
• The MASS DEP web site.

Link to this Application.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Honduras has designed an energy policy extending to 2030 which was modeled using LEAP. The analysis included two scenarios, one baseline and one "desired." The main objectives included a reduction in the the use of firewood, decreasing consumption from 42% in 2008 to 21% in 2030. The "desired" scenario also proposes the introduction of hybrid and electric cars, with the aim of having a more energy efficient transport sector.

The study is available here in Spanish. If you reference this report, please cite accordingly.

For other questions, please contact the National Project Coordinator, Mr. Wilfredo César Flores, at dgeper@yahoo.com.

Link to this Application.

The Program of Environmental Management and Economics at the University of Chile has completed a study "Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in Chile: Background for the Development of a Regulatory Framework and Evaluation of Reduction Strategies". The study included projections of GHG emissions in Chile from 2007-2030 and evaluations of alternative policy options. The study used LEAP to examine fossil fuel emissions in the transport and energy sectors, and also included an exploration of emissions from industrial processes, land-use change and forestry.

Full report is available here in Spanish and English.

Questions or comments should be directed to Manuel Díaz R. at the University of Chile.

Link to this Application.

The National Meteorological Service of Jamaica presents a greenhouse gas mitigation assessment covering projections of selected GHGs over the period of 2009 to 2035. Guided by Jamaica's National Development plan, Vision 2030, and the National Energy Policy: 2009 - 2030, the team used LEAP to model 3 scenarios: a reference scenario and two mitigation policy scenarios. Vision 2030 includes 4 national goals, 15 national outcomes and over 50 national strategies aimed at putting Jamaica in position to achieve developed country status by the year 2030.

• Executive Sumary
• Full Report
• Additional information and documents can be found on the Jamaica Met Service Website

Link to this Application.

APERC, the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, used LEAP to help develop the 4th APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook in 2009. The report contains energy demand and supply forecasts for the 21 member economies of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation).

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

A greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation assessment was carried out for the Commonwealth of Dominica for the period 2000 to 2030. The LEAP model was used to estimate GHG emissions for three scenarios – a Reference Scenario and two other scenarios (S2 and S3) characterised primarily by increasingly aggressive mitigation measures to reduce the energy demand in the residential and transportation sectors and making use of Dominica’s abundant (relative to demand requirements) geothermal energy for electricity generation. Scenarios S2 and S3 entail the use of hybrid vehicles (i.e. S2Hyb and S3Hyb with hybrid vehicles accounting for up to 30% of the fleet in 2030 depending on the vehicle class). Scenarios S3 and S3Hyb include the export of electricity (produced by geothermal energy) to the neighbouring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Full report available here.

For any other questions, please contact Collin Guiste or Claude Davis.

Link to this Application.

This report by the Bellona Foundation identifies three possible pathways Greece may take to respond to its emission mitigation challenge through 2050: No deployment of CCS, Constrained deployment and Full deployment. The latter scenario delivers not only the deepest emission cuts, but also the lowest electricity production costs. Combining a full deployment of CCS with biomass co-firing with coal allows the Greek power sector to become carbon-negative by 2040.

The report made use of scenarios developed using LEAP.

Full report available here.

Link to this Application.

Executed by the national Ministry of Environment, Lebanon's Second National Communication to the UNFCCC has been completed and now is available online. The mitigation chapter explores a basline scenario and two mitigation scenarios modeled within LEAP out to they year 2030.

The first mitigation scenario looks at 11% penetration of renewable energy by 2030 and a target of 66% natural gas fuel mix while the second mitigation scenario explores an increase in the penetration rate of renewables (17% by 2030) and a full switch from oil-fired power plants to natural gas by 2030.

The communication can be found online here.

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Cities are home to half the world's population, consume over two-thirds of the world's energy, and account for more than 70 percent of global CO2 emissions, and several cities are now seeking to become leaders in mitigating climate change.

In February 2010, the Seattle City Council adopted the goal of making the city carbon-neutral. To that end, the Seattle Office of Sustainability and Environment (OSE) asked SEI and its partners Cascadia Consulting Group and ICF International to develop a carbon-neutral scenario for the city.

The team used LEAP to examine a suite of emissions-reducing strategies that could cut Seattle's per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2020, 60% by 2030, and 90% by 2050, relative to 2008 levels. The scenario entails:

• Shifting to less GHG-intensive travel modes such as ride sharing, transit, walking and biking,
• Dramatically increasing energy efficiency in buildings and vehicles, and
• Transitioning homes, businesses, and vehicles to lower-carbon energy sources: electricity (or possibly hydrogen) in the long run, biofuels as a bridging strategy for transportation, and to a much lesser extent, sustainable biomass sources (for district energy systems).

Full report available here.

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Developed in collaboration with The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) and the National ESSPA Project teams from 10 member states of ASEAN, the ASEAN Centre for Energy published the third ASEAN Energy Outlook.

The outlook used the GDP growth targets of the 10 member states in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, and analyzed the impact of the energy saving goals and action plans in the primary energy demand and CO2 emissions which termed as Alternative Policy Scenario (APS).

The Outlook used a combination of econometric and engineering based approaches for forecasting energy demands, using the MICROFIT Econometric Modeling System and LEAP.

The full report is available here. For more information, please contact Beni Suryadi.

Link to this Application.

Though the challenge is great, the energy and sustainability scenarios in this report show that this challenge can be met. The report describes a series of global energy and sustainability scenarios played out to 2050 for the planet divided into 22 regions. The report also explores how to successfully implement change, via case studies of energy transformation and reviews of policy mechanisms and governance frameworks.

The scenarios in the report were developed in LEAP as a transparent and open source global energy model. This model will shortly be made freely available here for download and use within LEAP.

• The project web site is available here.


• The full report is available here.


• A LEAP dataset containing the 22 region global energy model baseline scenario is available here .

Link to this Application.

The work packages in the project include evaluation of available data and information, choice and implementation of models, develpment of national level scenarios, evaluation of policy portfolios, prioritization of research gaps and needs and training dissemination.

The overall strategy is based on development, implementation, evaluation, and knowledge transfer aimed at scientists and decision makers in both the public and private sectors.

As part of the project a comprehensive review of modeling tools was conducted, with LEAP being clearly judged as the most suitable, particularly due to its transparency, ease-of-use, low data requirements, flexibility, low cost and overall credibility. The full model review is available here.

Folowing its selection as the main tool for mitigation modeling in the project, a series of training workshops have been held to build capacity among organizations in the target countries. Those organizations have subsequntly been using LEAP, with assistance from the University of Athens in Greece and the Institute for Advanced Studies in Austria, to develop climate mitigation scenarios and policy portfolios.

PROMITHEAS web site

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The main components of the SNC are integrated vulnerability and adaptation assessments;identification of national circumstances that affect the assessments; conduct of a green house inventory; mitigation exercises; and identification of challenges experienced by various sectors, and lessons learned.

The output of the Initial National Communication was considered against the background of emerging development challenges and the impact of weather systems on key sectors of the economy. In addition, the vulnerability of key physical, social and economic sectors and the consequences of these impacts on sustainable national development weighed heavily in selecting the sectors for the assessments. These analyses, along with the wider vulnerability of Small Island Developing States, generally led to the selection of agriculture, coastal sector, critical infrastructure, disasters, financial services, forest and marine biodiversity, health, human settlements and Tourism as the sectors of interest in this assessment.

Full report available here.

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Jamaica's Second National Communication (SNC) includes GHG inventories for 2000-05 (and reference year (2000), prepared using the updated 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines. The SNC also assesses climate change impacts for the key sectors of health, human settlements, and tourism, in addition to revisiting agriculture, water, and coastal zones, for the years 2015, 2030, and 2050.

Although not required as a non-Annex I Party, Jamaica’s SNC also includes an assessment of potential mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions over 2009 to 2030 that will, just as importantly, improve energy efficiency.

Finally, other activities in support of the Convention, such as awareness raising, a review of the national systematic observation systems, and a technology needs assessment, are also described.

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The presentation of the Fourth National Communication of Mexico to the United Nations Framework United Nations on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reflects growing concern for understanding and addressing the major challenge from climate change facing developing societies around the world today.

Full report here.

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This report provides an update on national emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, adaptation actions undertaken to deal with climate change impacts, and mitigation of GHG emissions.

Senegal is perpetually confronted with the adverse effects of climate change because of its long coastline of 700 km, which suffers from the impact of sea level rise and coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion into agricultural land, salinization of water resources and the destruction of infrastructure.

Due to its rainfed agriculture, climate disruption may undermine efforts to fight against poverty and the objective of achieving self-sufficiency in food.

Today, the adverse effects of climate change are real and shared by all: natural disasters are increasingly frequent and devastating, and developing countries are increasingly vulnerable. Climate change’s adverse effects are most severely felt by people the least developed countries.

It is now essential to integrate adaptation measures into strategies for development if we are to effectively combat the impact of climate change on the living conditions of people. That is why the Ministry for the Environment included this dimension, as the main focus of its sectoral policies.

Full report here.

Link to this Application.

The very first LEAP-based study, now (partially) available on Google Books.

Partially scanned book available here.

Link to this Application.

The UNDP's Low Emission Capacity Building Programme (LECB) is a five-year global initiative to support national climate change mitigation efforts, low emission development strategies and enhanced measuring, reporting and verification systems for greenhouse gases in developing nations.

As of March 2012, 25 developing countries are participating in the program: Argentina, Bhutan, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Morocco, Peru, The Philippines, Tanzania, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Uganda, Vietnam, and Zambia.

The LECB programme aims to strengthen capacities in participating countries by:

• Developing greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory management systems
• Identifying opportunities for nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMA)
• Designing low emission development strategies (LEDS) in the context of national priorities
• Designing systems for measuring, reporting, and verification of proposed actions and means to reduce GHG emissions
• Facilitating the design and adoption of mitigation actions by selected industries in some countries

SEI has been assisting UNDP with the implementation of the programme. In 2012, SEI was commissioned by UNDP to develop data sets for 22 of the countries participating in the LECB for use within SEI’s LEAP software. These data sets include historical data (from 1990-2009) as well as a first draft baseline scenario to 2040, and a suggested structure for mitigation assessment. They are intended to serve as a starting point for the analyses of the developing country experts involved in the LECB project, and will be used in a technical workshop to be held in Marrakech, Morocco in October 2012.

The LECB Programme is funded by the European Commission, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), and the government of Australia (DCCEE and AusAID).

LECB brochure

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Climate, water and energy are intricately linked, so choices in any one sector can often reverberate across the others. To achieve the best possible outcomes, policy-makers need to understand cross-sector interactions and tradeoffs – the so-called ‘nexus’. This requires new tools for integrated analysis.

Seeking to meet this need, SEI has built a link between its water and energy decision support systems, which are already used in policy-making and planning around the world: the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. The integrated tools allow users to model evolving conditions in both waterand energy systems and examine cross-sectoral impacts of different policy choices.

The value of such integrated analyses is demonstrated here by a case study of the implications of meeting 10% of Southern California’s water demand through 2049 with desalinated seawater. By linking a WEAP model of the U.S. Southwest with a LEAP model of California,the study was able to quantify the impact on water imports, electricity demand from the watersector, and greenhouse-gas emissions.

The WEAP model shows that in normal water years, desalination reduces the need for waterimports by about 300 million cubic meters per year. However, integration of climate projections shows significant variations between dry and wet years, and LEAP shows desalination increases the water sector’s electricity use by about 3 terawatt-hours per year, and emissions, by 1.4 million tonnes of CO2e per year.

• Project policy brief
• WEAP web site

Link to this Application.

India is both the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and home to the largest population of the world's poor. Climate policy for India must therefore include a strong element of inclusive growth, implying that reducing conditions of deprivation must go hand in hand with reducing overall emissions. A low carbon inclusive growth strategy for India is developed in this study using a transparent, bottom-up scenario modelling effort. The study shows that it is possible for India to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 and also provide modern energy services to more than half its population who are currently unserved or under-served in this regard. This would entail having to focus on providing energy services to at least the bottom 50 million or so households by providing LPG or advanced electric cookstoves where feasible, access to electricity for lighting, water, sanitation services, improved access to services in urban areas (involving changes in land-use and transport), improved agricultural services, and so on. At the same time, commitments would be required to improve efficiency across the board and increase penetration of renewable energy in electricity generation and to make efforts to shift transport, housing and industry towards more sustainable models.

There are indications that this strategy could provide numerous co-benefits apart from reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving access to clean energy for the poor. These include reduced local air pollution, improved lifestyles and a more productive workforce.

• Full Report: Long-Term Energy and Development Pathways For India

• LEAP Data Set: IndiaEnergyScenarios2014.leap

• Email Contact:scrajan@iitm.ac.in

• IGCS Web site: www.igcs-chennai.org

Link to this Application.

The term “green growth”and “low emissions development strategies” have become increasingly common in discussions of climate change policy in developing countries. Though studies for a number of countries have been conducted, virtually none address the role of fossil fuel extraction in green growth or LEDS. Working with three ministries of the Government of Mongolia and a team of local partner organizations; and with funding from the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), SEI recently conducted a scenario analysis of alternative energy scenarios for Mongolia, including what role Mongolia’s energy exports might play in fulfilling future Asian energy needs, whilst also examining the implications of green growth planning for these important sectors of the Mongolian economy.

Full report available here

Mongolia LEAP data set available here

Link to this Application.

Developed by the Massachusetts Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) with support from Abt Associates, this report is an update to the Clean Energy and Climate Plan initially released in 2010 pursutant to the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2008 (GWSA). Massachusetts remains a nationally recognized leader in combating climate change, and the Update presents the policies upon which the State Government will rely to ensure that the Commonwealth is positioned to meet the emissions reductions goals of the GWSA.

The update, like the initial report was again based on scenario analyses developed within LEAP. It emphasizes initiatives that address energy challenges that face residents and businesses in the state, and indicates that a GHG emissions reduction of at least 25% is attainable by 2020. The report states that full implementation will set the Commonwealth on course for a sustained, vibrant state economy with environmentally responsible economic growth for decades to come.

Full Report available here

Link to this Application.

Africa is experiencing a massive flow of people into urban areas. This is happening in major urban centres such as Lagos, Accra and Dar es Salaam – but it's also happening in less well-known, smaller, secondary cities.

Supporting African Municipalities in Sustainable Energy Transitions (SAMSET), is a four-year project that began in 2013. Its aim is to address sustainable energy transitions in African cities. It provides practical planning and implementation support to municipalities to manage future energy planning in a sustainable manner.

The project involves six cities in western, eastern and southern Africa: Ga East and Awutu Senya East in Ghana, Kasese and Jinja in Uganda, and Cape Town and Polokwane in South Africa. Research and support organisations in each country and the UK were involved as well.

SAMSET modelled the urban energy systems of each of these cities using LEAP.

SAMSET web site here.

Link to this Application.

Conducted over a two year period from 2013 to 2015, this project supported by the Asian Development Bank and carried out by Abt Associates with support from SEI, sought to increase the availability of information on the options and costs for reducing GHG emissions and reduce the negative effects of climate change in Central and West Asia.

LEAP was used as the main modeling tool for the project, and it was applied to analyze the costs and benefits of mitigation options - in the energy and transport sectors of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The effectiveness of options was assessed in terms of GHG abatement, and net social costs and benefits. The potential interactions between mitigation options were assessed in a range of scenarios. The study was complemented by a capacity development program for energy and transport experts in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan focused on analyzing mitigation scenarios using the national models developed during the study.

Summary report available here or via the ADB web site.

Also available are the resulting LEAP data sets for:

• Azerbaijan
• Kazakhstan
• Uzbekistan

Link to this Application.

CLIMACAP was a three-year effort financed by the European Commission, that ran from 2012 to 2015. The project was led by the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) and supported by SEI, and other leading European and Latin-American universities, think-tanks and institutes.

The project strengthened modelling capacity to support the climate change mitigation strategies of key Latin American countries and regional groupings, and generated cross-model comparison analyses and scenarios up to 2050 that focus on issues such as the economic impacts of policy measures, mitigation costs and potentials, and costs and pathways for reaching specific emission reductions.

The project collaborated closely with LAMP: The Latin American Modeling Project, which was funded by the US Government, and which involved leading US-based energy and climate change modeling institutions.

The main output from the project was a series of papers published in the journal Energy Economics on Climate Policy in Latin America. A range of different models and analytical tools were employed during the project including LEAP, and LEAP models were developed for Argentina, Colombia and Mexico.

Outputs:

• CLIMACAP Flyer available here.
• Climate and Energy Policy Reviews of Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil are available here.
• The CLIMACAP/LAMP scenarios database is available here.

Link to this Application.

The Paris UNFCCC Conference of Parties in late 2015 was the culmination of years of effort by countries to develop and submit their commitments to take action on climate change. The resulting Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) were the foundation of the historic Paris climate agreement, demonstrating countries’ intent to begin decarbonizing their economies and invest in climate-resilience. The Paris agreement set an ambitious goal of peaking GHG emissions as soon as possible, and rapidly decarbonizing thereafter with ambition to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. And while the current set of INDCs fall well short of that goal, many observers viewed the Paris meeting as a major step forward toward that goal.

INDCs were submitted by 188 countries (parties) representing 98.6% of current global GHG emissions. At least 32 countries used LEAP to create energy and emissions scenarios that were the basis for their INDC commitments, including: Armenia, Albania, Azerbaijan, Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Cambodia, Ecuador, Federated States of Micronesia, Ghana, Haiti, Iraq, Israel, Jamaica, Lebanon, Liberia, Mauritania, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Palau, Philippines, Serbia, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The focus of efforts after Paris will be on how to operationalize these goals. Parties will need to turn their INDCs into implementable actions that achieve transformational impacts. Many countries will require support to achieve their ambitions, and SEI expects LEAP and LEAP-related capacity building efforts to continue to play an important role in supporting countries as they build their capabilities to create Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS).

All submitted INDCs are publicly accessible via the The UNFCCC submission portal.

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Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) are pollutants that have a relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere – a few days to a few decades – and a warming influence on the climate. The main short-lived climate pollutants are black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). SLCPs are also a major cause of air pollution, causing impacts on human health, agriculture and ecosystems.

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (CCAC) was launched by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2012 to help coordinate action among a coalition of countries and non-state actors that wish to take voluntary actions to rapidly reduce in SLCPs. As of early 2016 the CCAC has 46 country partners plus the European Union, and numerous non-state partner organizations. The CCAC has a comprehensive range of sectoral initiatives in 11 key areas, aimed at reducing emissions from diesel use, brick kilns, the oil and gas sector, cook stoves, agriculture, HFCs, and waste management. It also has a number of cross-cutting initiatives including one aimed at Supporting National Action Planning on SLCPs (SNAP).

The SNAP initiative aims to support and build capacity for rapid and large-scale implementation of SLCP mitigation at the national level, by helping governments assess the scale of the SLCP issue and the potential for mitigation and to plan implementation of measures and monitoring and evaluation of progress with SLCP actions.

A key element of the SNAP initiative is the development of suitable analytical assessment tools. The CCAC has therefore asked SEI to develop a new tool based on a combination of LEAP and a new Impacts Benefits Calculator, based on the global GeosChem-Adjoint atmospheric model,that can provide national planners with quantitative estimates of the impacts of SLCP pollution and the multiple benefits of emission reductions. A key requirement of the new tool is that it should be practically usable in countries by planners with only moderate levels of modeling expertise and in situations where data is limited and of poor quality.

The resulting tool, known as the LEAP-Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) is currently being finalized. Beta versions of the tool have been tested by teams in Mexico, Ghana, Bangladesh, Colombia and a second beta version of the tool is currently being tested in a series of workshops in 2016 in Estonia, Ghana and Latin America. The finalized tool will be made broadly available to all CCAC partner countries by late 2016.

Link to this Application.

Countries all over the world, including developing ones like the Philippines, are searching for a balanced solution to climate change that sustains robust economic growth while improving resource efficiency and economic resilience.

USAID's B-LEADERS project aims to contribute to increasing climate resilience and mitigation in the Philippines. It will enhance the capacity of the Government of the Philippines and its key partners to plan, design and implement low emission development strategies (LEDS) and will contribute to the formulation of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in the power, transport, and land use sectors.

Activities in the project include:

• Strengthening Capacity for Low Emission Development: by providing technical assistance to institutionalize Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories and by developing a state-of-the-art LEDS toolkit featuring scenario-based models. B-LEADERS aims to translate national policies and strategies into concrete and sustained activities at both national and local government levels and give high priority to community outreach and country-wide dissemination of climate information.
• Increased Investments into Clean Energy Projects: B-LEADERS aims to advance the growth of investments in the clean energy sector, by supporting project developers and clean energy investment, and by streamlining business process to help reduce transaction costs and delays.

The B-Leaders project is led by Engility with support from The Stockholm Environment Institute and other international and Philippino institutions. SEI is playing multiple roles in the project, including supporting the Philippine Climate Change Commission and Department of Energy, to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of climate mitigation options in the country's energy sector. The outputs of this effort informed the Philippines' Nationally Determined Contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement. This analysis was conducted using a new national LEAP model for the Philippines, which provides a synopsis of national GHG emissions and mitigation opportunities, and their costs and benefits.

SEI is also supporting the Department of Energy and regional governments to develop regional energy plans using LEAP. We are also collaborating with the Mindanao Development Authority on a study of integrated water and energy sector management in Mindanao: a region that is highly dependent on hydropower and vulnerable to the changing climate. The study seeks to quantify the potential impact of climate change on hydropower availability and to assess what climate mitigation options therefore make sense as the climate changes. This work is being conducted using and integrated modeling approach that joins SEI's LEAP model to its Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system.

A common theme in the B-LEADERS work is to build capacity for modeling and mitigation analysis among national and regional government agencies. To this end, SEI has conducted training workshops in Manilla, Mindanao and Cebu City for key national and regional agencies and stakeholders, such as the Climate Change Commission, Department of Energy, Department of Transportation and Communications, and the Mindanao Development Authority.

B-Leaders web site available here.

Link to this Application.

GREAT: The Green Resources & Energy Analysis Tool is a LEAP modeling template designed by the China Energy Group of the Lawrenece Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in Berkeley, California. It is intended to helps cities in China in exploring and identifying potential energy and emission reduction opportunities and to create action plans for low carbon development. GREAT includes a national average dataset on energy input parameters for residential, commercial, transport, industry and agriculture end-use sectors, that can be quickly adapted for use in different Chinese cities.

GREAT also includes a separate energy transformation module with specific power sector parameters such as installed generation capacity. Users such as energy policy analysts and researchers can customize the model to a given Chinese city or region by entering detailed actual and/or projected information for technologies within each sector. The user-friendly LEAP interface then allow users to assess current and future key energy and carbon emissions drivers in detail from the perspectives of economic sectors, end-use technologies and fuels. LEAP and GREAT help local Chinese governments to develop their city's GHG inventory; generate future energy and emissions baseline scenarios, evaluate the impact of alternative mitigation policies and develop targets and action plans.

Overview of GREAT available here.

GREAT User Manual in Chinese available here.

Link to this Application.

While Morocco is still 90% dependent on external sources of energy, iin recent years it has made great progress with its energy policies. According to the International Energy Agency, achievements include extending energy access to nearly all of its population, opening up the power sector and oil market to international investors, diversifying its electricity fuel mix, and accelerating the deployment of wind and solar power, and energy efficiency.

With funding from UNEP and GIZ, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) has been working with Morocco’s Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water, and Environment to further enhance its capacity for long-term energy and climate mitigation planning through application of SEI's LEAP software. Following an initial LEAP training, the SEI and Moroccan teams have been conducting joint model development exercises focused on constructing a national LEAP. The resulting model includes a baseline scenario through 2050 and several mitigation scenarios for the energy sector. The model includes detailed coverage of the power sector and has been validated using local survey data and comparisons with other international and national modeling efforts (including an in-depth study of the Moroccan power sector being conducted by the German Aerospace Center and GIZ)

Anticipated future activities include developing scenarios for the next Moroccan national energy strategy and the recently announced German-Moroccan energy partnership and contributing to Morocco’s forthcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) – to the next major international climate conference (COP22), which will be held in Marrakech, Morocco in November 2016.

Link to this Application.

This roadmap defines a strategic vision to deploy sustainable biofuel and biomass technologies in Colombia for the period 2015-2030. It was elaborated using an energy-economy-emissions modeling framework with experienced advice from over 30 bioenergy experts from government, academia, industry and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The roadmap identifies barriers to bioenergy deployment and recommends strategies, plans and policies to deploy biofuel and biomass technologies in Colombia. It also outlines actions needed to accomplish the proposed goals.

The impacts of achieving the roadmap goals were quantified in a modeling framework that addresses energy, economy, emissions and land-use change interactions by combining an energy system model and a land-use and trade model. The energy system modeling was built within LEAP, which was coupled with a land-use and trade model that estimates land allocation as well as production, imports and exports for 18 agricultural and forestry commodities. The land-use modeling assumes that the fundamental driver of land-use and trade is the maximization of the profit perceived by local actors (i.e. local producers and importers). Competition is considered at three levels: food vs. biofuels, residues for energy vs. other uses and local production vs. imports. The LUTM model was built in Microsoft Excel and uses the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG) nonlinear algorithm to perform optimizations.

Authors: Gonzalez-Salazar, M.A,; Ventuirini, M.; Poganletz, W.R.; Finkenrath, M.; Kirsten, T.’ Acevedo, H.

Full report available here.

Paper based on the report in the journal Applied Energy available here (free download until Aug 7, 2016).

Link to this Application.

The Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR) in partnership with the Heinrich Böll Foundation (North Africa Office) produced this study, which is the first publicly accessible, modeled and civil society-analyzed scenario for the Egyptian electrical sector. Through engaging with stakeholders and a participatory drafting process, the project assessed seven different options for how Egypt’s electricity sector could develop between 2015-2035.

The study described each pathway in terms of its costs, greenhouse gas emissions, job creation effects, impacts of pollution and infrastructure requirements. The pathways are based on a vision for Egypt to develop sustainably, creating stable jobs, building the capacity of communities to generate their own sources of clean energy, reducing the environmental impacts from generating energy – such as air, water and land pollution – and ensuring that Egypt is well placed to be self sufficient in meeting its energy needs.

The study shows that Egypt has the potential to build a large energy efficiency industry that creates thousands of jobs, reduces the total demand for electricity, brings citizens’ bills down, costs less for the government to implement (versus current policies) and which reduces the country’s greenhouse gas emissions footprint.

The seven pathways studied, which were analyzed using LEAP, were:

1. Business as Usual with Efficiency Measures (BAU)
2. Business as Usual with Coal (BAU+COAL)
3. Towards Zero Carbon with Natural Gas (TZC)
4. Towards Zero Carbon with Nuclear (TZC+NUCLEAR)
5. Towards Zero Carbon with Concentrated Solar Power (TZC+CSP)
6. Towards Energy Independence (TEI)
7. Towards Decentralized Energy (TDE)

The study assesses nuclear energy for example, and finds it to not be a viable part of a future energy mix for Egypt; where it concludes nuclear to be the most expensive pathway available, costing 23.7 billion USD, and potentially posing extreme risks to human lives and the environment in Egypt.

• Project Web Site.
• Full Report.
• The Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR).
• The Heinrich Böll Foundation.

Link to this Application.

With support from the Energy Foundation and many additional foundations and individuals, the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), the Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI) and the China Energy Group of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) undertook a major study - Reinventing Fire: China, which provides an innovative energy roadmap to 2050 in which China meets its energy needs and improves its energy security and environmental quality using the maximum feasible share of cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy supply.

The analysis demonstrates these benefits in spite of using a conservative approach:

• It includes only commercially available, cost-effective technologies and autonomous technological improvements (future breakthroughs in technology are not included in the analysis),
• CO2 emissions are not explicitly priced (despite China’s pilot carbon emission trading schemes and commitment to commence a national trading scheme during the 13th Five-Year Plan period), and
• External economic benefits such as public health and environmental quality are not included in cost calculations.

The study examined two distinct pathways:

• A Reference Scenario: in which only policies in place in 2010 continue to have effect and autonomous technological improvement occurs.
• The Reinventing Fire Scenario: in which the maximum feasible shares of commercially available, cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy supply are adopted.

The study leverages scientific models and incorporates over 75 real-world case studies to calibrate assumptions. Over 1,000 off-the-shelf measures to reduce energy and/or carbon were considered. A distinguished advisory panel of 14 leading Chinese energy experts acted as advisers, and numerous additional Chinese experts in leading ministries, think tanks, associations, and universities provided input and scientific review. Prominent international experts also reviewed the results. LEAP served as one of the key analytical tools in helping to formulate the scenarios developed in the study.

• Executive summary can be downloaded here.
• The full report is being finalized and is expected to be published in early 2017.
• Information on the "DREAM" LEAP model developed by LBNL for the study available here

Link to this Application.

The transport sector in Medellín, Colombia contributes to climate change through GHG emissions, and it has been the target of public interventions to improve quality of life and reduce CO2 emissions. The Medellin metropolitan area in Colombia has developed a mass transportation system called Metro de Medellin that integrates train lines, a tram line, BRTs, gondola lift systems, escalators, a bicycle-sharing system and hybrid buses to reduce traffic and CO2 emissions. Despite these efforts, pollution is peaking, and the situation requires new plans.

This paper quantifies the emissions that could be avoided by the implementation of Medellin’s Master Plan, the promotion of telecommuting, and the development of a transport energy model for Medellin metropolitan area between 2010 and 2040. The results indicate that a policy combining the promotion of mass transportation and telecommuting could represent 5.65 Million Tons of CO2 equivalent avoided by 2040 (a 9.4% reduction) and an estimated total energy savings of 86,575.55 TJ.

The analysis, which was conducted with the help of a model developed within LEAP find that it is necessary to implement complementary policies in order to achieve the commitment assumed by Colombia at the COP 21. The analytical framework employed could also be applied to other regions to evaluate environmental and energy mitigation strategies.

The photo shows part of the Gondola system in Medellín. Medellín was the first city in the world to use gondolas for public transit, and also the first to use escalators in a residential neighborhood.

Authors: Juan Esteban Martínez-Jaramillo, Santiago Arango-Aramburo, Karla C. Álvarez-Uribe, Patricia Jaramillo-Alvarez

Photo Credit: Barbara J. Miner/ Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel.

• Full Paper available here.

Link to this Application.

Clean energy technologies offer an historic opportunity to build an energy future that produces large consumer, economic, and climate benefits. EnergyVision 2030 developed by the Acadia Center shows how, by redoubling existing efforts in four key areas, New York and the six New England states can accelerate this transition and achieve a modern, low-emissions energy future.

Clean energy technologies offer an historic opportunity to build an energy future that produces large benefits: modernization of our energy systems, better options for all consumers to control energy costs, advanced economic growth, and dramatically reduced climate pollution. Numerous studies show that by leading on clean energy innovation states can save residents and businesses money, keep more energy dollars in the region, grow the workforce, and secure a healthier future. As a result, Northeast states are making commitments to build a clean energy future, and as they do, questions arise: what impact will current efforts to expand clean energy resources have over time? Where can we do more to advance this future? What amount of clean energy is needed to adequately reduce carbon pollution and meet current emissions targets?

EnergyVision 2030 analyzes these questions by taking a comprehensive look at where efforts to expand clean energy resources can lead, how consumer adoption and market penetration rates can grow, and what increases in clean energy efforts are needed to attain state and regional emissions goals.

EnergyVision 2030 data show that progress is being made and with further strategic action, expanding adoption of modern, market ready technologies can reduce climate pollution emissions 45% by 2030: a target needed to put the region on the path to meet scientifically directed emissions reductions of 80% by 2050. This is a goal most of the Northeast states have made a commitment to in some form. By acting now to reform outdated rules and financial incentives that still encourage investments in old and expensive energy choices and taking steps to facilitate consumer adoption and remove barriers, the region can benefit all residents and achieve its climate commitments.

EnergyVision 2030 suggests one pathway to advance adoption of clean energy technologies in four core areas—grid modernization, electric generation, buildings, and transportation—and demonstrates that even relatively modest increases of clean energy technologies can significantly reduce emissions while delivering consumer and economic benefits for all.

Modeling for EnergyVision 2030 was conducted using LEAP supplemented by external modeling as needed.

• Main EnergyVision 2030 web site.
• EnergyVision 2030 Methodology.
• Acadia Center web site.

Link to this Application.

The Argentine Energy Scenarios Platform is an initiative promoted by the Avina Foundation, the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation (FARN), the Center for Studies on Energy Regulatory Activity of the University of Buenos Aires (CEARE), and the Buenos Aires Technological Institute (ITBA).

It is based on a commitment to facilitate a public debate on the energy future of Argentina and to generate space for a dialog that encourages a long-term vision of the country's energy future.

With the help of LEAP, a series of scenarios were elaborated by all of the "scenaristas" involved in the project. They present benefits in economic, social and environmental terms relative to a baseline scenario realized by an Executive Committee. All the scenarios show a marked expansion of renewable energy, while some also explore the role of expanded nuclear generation and the role of non-conventional hydrocarbons. In some scenarios, opportunities are identified for promoting innovation strategies, such as strengthening cogeneration or increasing the use of biogas.

The platform demonstrates the need for long-term planning and shows a commitment to build a sustainable energy future for Argentina. The platform supports a dialog on these issues and helps to increase technical rigor - qualities needed for the formulation of a long-term energy plan.

• Platforma Escenarios Enegerticos Argentina Web Site
• Scenarios Platform Report (in Spanish)

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BUENAS is an end use energy demand projection model implemented within LEAP and developed and maintained by the International Energy Studies Group (IES) of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) with support from the CollaborativeLabeling and Appliance Standards Program (CLASP), the International Copper Association (ICA)and the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).

The main objective of BUENAS is to estimate energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions potential both globally and by country through 2030 from energy efficiency programs. It models energy demand by various types of energy consuming equipment and aggregates the results to the end use, sector or national level. The current version of BUENAS covers 13 major national economies accounting for 80% of global energy demand and covering 15 building and industrial appliances and equipment categories, for a total of approximately 200 equipment and country combinations.

BUENAS simulates policy scenarios such as:

• Best Practices — Identifies achievable efficiency targets based on alignment of Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) across regions.
• Cost-Effective Potential — Models economic potential of high-efficiency appliance and equipment by integrating BUENAS and the Global Energy Efficiency Cost (GEEC) database developed at LBNL.
• Best-Available Technology — Characterizes most aggressive energy efficiency technical potential.

BUENAS provided input to IEA's World Energy Outlook 2012 and was also featured in the Global Energy Assessment in 2012. In collaboration with The Prayas Energy Group, IES used BUENAS to support the design of the Super-Efficient Equipment Program (SEEP) for India's Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), a program supported by the World Bank.

• BUENAS Documentation: Methodology and Results
• Guidebook for India's Super-Efficient Equipment Program

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The HERON project was a two-year initiative funded by the European Commission's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme. It was designed to help EU policy makers to develop and monitor energy efficiency policies in the buildings and transport sectors, through forward-looking socio-economic research in seven EU and one candidate countries.

The objectives were:

• Evaluate the impact of socio-economic and institutional factors on implementing energy efficiency policies and measures,
• Develop energy-efficient pathways to 2030 and beyond taking into account the socio-economic drivers and energy efficiency measures,
• Help to improve energy modeling by incorporating social, educational and cultural factors so as to reflect end-user behavior,
• Establish communication channels between researchers, decision makers and social and market stakeholders.

These objectives were tackled through:

1. Mapping of energy efficiency policy instruments, available technologies and social, economic, cultural and educational barriers in transport and buildings,
2. Assessing the barriers and the main driving factors for energy efficiency, in order to define their weight and importance,
3. Determining linkages between these factors and energy efficiency,
4. Conducting forward-looking scenario analysis, focusing on macro- and micro-economic impacts of energy efficiency policy options,
5. Making policy recommendations through multi-criteria evaluation and feedback mechanisms with policy makers and market stakeholders in the EU including member states, and the covenant of Mayors, as well as in neighboring countries.

HERON researchers used LEAP to develop scenario-based assessments of energy efficiency potential in the buildings and transport sectors in eight countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Greece, the United Kingdomm, Italy and Serbia. They also developed an innovative decision support tool to incorporate non-economic and non-market elements, such as social, educational and cultural, into scenario analysis.

The HERON programme was led by the Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens, and also included researchers from the following Institutions: Bocconi University in Italy, The Black Sea Energy Research Centre (BSERC) in Bulgaria, The Stockholm Environment Institute-Tallinn Center in Estonia, Oxford Brookes University in the United Kingdom, The University of Antwerp in Belgium, The Wuppertal Institute in Germany, and The University of Belgrade in Serbia.

• Report on the Decision Support Tool developed by the Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens.

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Fluctuations in the world’s economy and energy prices, political conflicts, and environmental impacts are significantly affecting Thailand's energy system and highlighting the need for scenario-based approaches to energy planning. This need is addressed in The Thailand Energy Outlook for 2016 (TEO2016), prepared by the Policy and Strategy Management Office of the Thai Ministry of Energy with support from researchers at Chulalongkorn University.

TEO2016 includes analysis of the current energy system as well as projections to the year 2036 under a range of alternative future scenarios. The first scenario is named the "Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint" (TIEB), and reflects national energy and development objectives to be achieved within the 2015-2036 timeframe in Thailand. The other scenario is named the "Possible Risk" scenario, and reflects possible risks that could prevent the TIEB from being realized. Development of this scenario is intended to illustrate plausible risks so that Thailand can prepare for and thus overcome the possible obstacles promptly and appropriately.

The TIEB scenario takes into consideration both energy consumption and resource management issues, and has been conducted in parallel with an effort to revise and more fully integrate the National Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP), the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP), the Oil Plan, and the Power Development Plan (PDP).

• Thailand Energy Outlook 2016 Summary Report.

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Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and home to approximately 10% of the unelectrified population of Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, 77 million Nigerians or 40% of the population had no access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity. Diesel- and petrol-fuelled back-up generators supply the vast majority of electricity in the country. Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) on climate change foresee over 60% reductions in greenhouse gas (GH) emissions from the power sector. The goal of this study was to identify and critically examine the pathways available to Nigeria to meet these NDC targets along with its 2030 electricity access and renewables goals in the power sector. Using published data and stakeholder interviews, three scenarios for electrification and growth in demand, generation and transmission capacity were built. The demand assumptions incorporate existing knowledge on pathways for electrification via grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems (SHSs). The supply assumptions examine the investment pipeline for generation and transmission capacity projected out to 2030. The results reveal that Nigeria can meet its electricity access goals and decarbonisation pledges although its renewable energy goals would only be partly met. The implications and uncertainties of these findings are extensively discussed.

Authors: María Yetano Roche, Hans Verolme, Chibuikem Agbaegbu, Taylor Binnington, Manfred Fischedick, Emmanuel Olukayode Oladipo

• Paper in Climate Policy: available here.
• LEAP area containing three scenarios: BAU, Moderate and Green: NigeriaPower.leap

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Working with the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), Vermont’s Agency of Natural Resources, and its Department of Public Service, SEI developed a LEAP model of Vermont to explore scenarios that achieve the GHG reduction targets for 2025, 2030 and 2050 set out in the state’s Global Warming Solutions Act.

The resulting LEAP model is available here and can be viewed by anyone using LEAP. Users who wish to explore more deeply (e.g. adjust inputs or calculate results), should obtain the latest versions of LEAP and NEMO (available here). The model is setup to use the commercial CPLEX solver (available separately for purchase), but users can also select one of the other solvers supported by LEAP. We recommend using CBC which is both fast and free.

For additional information, contact Taylor Binnington.

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